Global Macro Trading Journal

Daal said:
I think it would be nuts to have a portfolio right now without gold in it, especially given the action in the last 2 days. And T bonds with maturities of more than 2-3 years are unbuyable, the deficit will explode and the Fed is monetizing the whole thing. The Fed is different from the ECB and BOJ, they adopt a lot more extreme measures early on, rather than too little to late. The Fed might switch to price level targeting at some point this year, this would make 10-30y bonds are terrible buy. But 2 year bonds? They will be fine
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Since this corona selloff started gold has gone down 15% peak to current trough, and is still down 10%.

Bonds and notes are still up, although not as much as one would think.

In 08 gold went down ~30% max drawdown. I don't disagree with your thesis, but I think you have the definition of a hedge wrong. It's not supposed to correlate to 1 with equities.
 
tsznecki said:
Since this corona selloff started gold has gone down 15% peak to current trough, and is still down 10%.

Bonds and notes are still up, although not as much as one would think.

In 08 gold went down ~30% max drawdown. I don't disagree with your thesis, but I think you have the definition of a hedge wrong. It's not supposed to correlate to 1 with equities.
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Short-term yes, but the long-term driver does not correlate like that. You might want to read Dalios interview on Hedge Fund Market Wizards where he talks about correlations
 
Dalio said on CNBC that he thinks one of the results of this crisis is that people might start questioning what is money. That is, trust in the fiat system might start to erode (though these are my words, not his). I believe that is correct. The US fiscal deficit is going to be 10% of GDP, and that will be largely monetized by the Fed. There is literally helicopter money through QE + Direct Cash Deposits to taxpayers. And I believe the Fed is just getting started, more dramatic steps might come soon, especially if unemployment is really gonna reach 30%. At some point people will start to question whether those fiat dollars around make a lot of sense. The Fed will HAVE to devalue the dollar to lift the economy, there is no other choice. As they go that, Gold should benefit, but also bitcoin as well. I havent sold my bitcoin and have no plans to do so
But I'm considering some kind of taleb style options play on gold. That is to sell ITM calls and buy way OTM calls. I think a hedge like that makes sense but I dont have a lot of experience with these sorts of plays
 
I started to scale short SPY in this after hours session. The idea is to keep shorting all the way to 270. with a stop a 275. I dedicate 0.5-1% of my networth (in risk if i get stopped out) a year to protecting my downside. I think its time for me to use that
 
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