how come this didnt happen for all the dozens of diseases that children get vaccinated every year? most likely scenario is that a vaccine will be avaliable next year and in 2022 no one will talk about coronavirus anymore
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
I have read that a coronavirus vaccine is difficult to produce because it is a respiratory virus and a potential vaccine can cause the same type of fatal immune response that the virus does. Whether that is true or not, I don't know. I do know that there is no vaccine for SARS and other coronaviruses besides Covid-19.
I overode my stop, still short. Looks like the market is peaking. I just dont trust this rally, its too early for this to bottom
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Many rich-world governments pursued this sort of strategy after the second world war with some success. At its wartime height, America’s public debt was 112% of gdp, Britain’s 259%. By 1980 America’s debt-to-gdp ratio had fallen to 26% and Britain’s to 43%. Achieving those results involved both a high tolerance for inflation and an ability to stop interest rates from following it upwards. The second of these feats was achieved by means of a regulatory system which, by depriving citizens of better investment options, forced them in effect to lend to governments at low interest rates. By the 1970s economists were calling this “financial repression”.
In a paper published in 2015, Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University and Belen Sbrancia of the imf calculated that France, Italy, Japan, Britain and America spent at least half of that period in so-called “liquidation” years in which interest rates adjusted for inflation were negative. They estimated that the average annual “liquidation tax” to governments resulting from real interest kept low by inflation and financial repression ranged from 1.9% of gdp in America to 7.2% in Japan.
The violence inherent in the system
To attempt such repression today, though, would require redeploying tools used by post-war governments—tools such as capital controls, fixed exchange rates, rationed bank lending and caps on interest rates. This would be offensive to lovers of economic freedom. It would also be sufficiently contrary to the interests of investors and savers to be politically very demanding. That said, the coming years could prove to be politically demanding times. But if governments did enact such changes, they would spur responses unavailable to investors of the 1950s and 1960s, such as investment in cryptocurrencies and other immaterial products."
https://www.economist.com/briefing/...orld-deep-in-debt-and-force-some-hard-choices
buy gold and bitcoin
Many rich-world governments pursued this sort of strategy after the second world war with some success. At its wartime height, America’s public debt was 112% of gdp, Britain’s 259%. By 1980 America’s debt-to-gdp ratio had fallen to 26% and Britain’s to 43%. Achieving those results involved both a high tolerance for inflation and an ability to stop interest rates from following it upwards. The second of these feats was achieved by means of a regulatory system which, by depriving citizens of better investment options, forced them in effect to lend to governments at low interest rates. By the 1970s economists were calling this “financial repression”.
In a paper published in 2015, Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University and Belen Sbrancia of the imf calculated that France, Italy, Japan, Britain and America spent at least half of that period in so-called “liquidation” years in which interest rates adjusted for inflation were negative. They estimated that the average annual “liquidation tax” to governments resulting from real interest kept low by inflation and financial repression ranged from 1.9% of gdp in America to 7.2% in Japan.
The violence inherent in the system
To attempt such repression today, though, would require redeploying tools used by post-war governments—tools such as capital controls, fixed exchange rates, rationed bank lending and caps on interest rates. This would be offensive to lovers of economic freedom. It would also be sufficiently contrary to the interests of investors and savers to be politically very demanding. That said, the coming years could prove to be politically demanding times. But if governments did enact such changes, they would spur responses unavailable to investors of the 1950s and 1960s, such as investment in cryptocurrencies and other immaterial products."
https://www.economist.com/briefing/...orld-deep-in-debt-and-force-some-hard-choices
buy gold and bitcoin
I recently sold my BRKB and PSH and bought some chinese stocks. I'm confused and unclear as to what it is going to happen in the US, even after Coronavirus as the US deficit will reach 22% of GDP in the context of record levels of debt. I do believe that Chinese will be better positioned to navigate during times like this, they have lower levels of government debt, a much lower deficit and a government with a huge resolve that will do whatever it takes to solve any issues they might have
But on the US, I literally have no idea what is going to happen in the next few years, it seems that anything could happen. In markets like that you want to be a buyer on panic and a seller on complacency. I dont see panic right now so I rather stay out
But on the US, I literally have no idea what is going to happen in the next few years, it seems that anything could happen. In markets like that you want to be a buyer on panic and a seller on complacency. I dont see panic right now so I rather stay out
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/g...itcoin-will-dominate-gold-stocks-public-trust
Great letter from Tudor Jones talking about the crisis. I used to check M2 quite a bit but forgot to look at it lately. He is talking about how its growing at an absurd level of almost 20% yoy!
I aint selling any of my gold or bitcoin. I have a core bitcoin position and if anything I will be adding a trading position as well. Buying on dips (like this one currently and selling into rallies).
I expect this TJ letter and interviews to give BTC more credibility among the HF world and create a new bubble, with a peak perhaps at $30-$40K a coin. But when Ray Dalio says in Davos "Bitcoin is starting to prove itself as a store of value', that will be the time to sell
Great letter from Tudor Jones talking about the crisis. I used to check M2 quite a bit but forgot to look at it lately. He is talking about how its growing at an absurd level of almost 20% yoy!
I aint selling any of my gold or bitcoin. I have a core bitcoin position and if anything I will be adding a trading position as well. Buying on dips (like this one currently and selling into rallies).
I expect this TJ letter and interviews to give BTC more credibility among the HF world and create a new bubble, with a peak perhaps at $30-$40K a coin. But when Ray Dalio says in Davos "Bitcoin is starting to prove itself as a store of value', that will be the time to sell