Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from jj90:

@ralph: Agreed on GOOG, it came up as an investment (not trade) candidate for me as well, in the next bull run this is easily a 1K stock. The issue I have with owning equities (over futures) is : do I try and time the purchase and risk paying up, or just close my eyes with a set risk amt and buy?
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So much depends on your needs/goals. If you're worried about the next few days or even the next few months, GOOG is not the stock for you. Fairly simple math nearly assures returns from owning GOOG will outperform the broad market over the next few years (this assumes an adaptable management can keep the business from getting destroyed).
 
Shorting euros this afternoon.

I don't think either Draghi or Bernanke can deliver on all that's been built up for the two (esp. Draghi) over the past few sessions. Obviously, there are a bunch of ways to play it, but shorting the euro seems particularly low risk.

Short euros outright and bought some puts on FXE.
 
Louis Bacon returning big chunk of money to investors. With central planners ruling the developed world, he can't make money anymore.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08...billion-to-investors/?smid=tw-nytimesbusiness

“The political involvement is so extreme — we have not seen this since the post-war era,” Mr. Bacon said. “And what they are doing is trying to thwart natural market outcomes."

A-fucking-men.

Solution: Buy Apple, buy Google, buy Wal-Mart (though WMT is now expensive), buy a couple of mREITs ... and go to sleep for the next 20 years.
 
Covered half my euro shorts following the swoosh down after the Fed. Will hold the rest and see what the ECB has in store tomorrow.:cool:
 
Quote from logesharun:

Hi Guys,

Thanks you for this thread.

I have been learning (trading) forex for past two years, first year went with TA, EA's and robots; and second year was on Support/resistance (supply & demand- sam sedien) .

I have been trying to learn orderflow and global macro trading through darkstar's and grkfx's post in FF. Though their post are not direct to the point but they are enough to make me think that TA are not the big boys watching.

I am waiting for grkfx's course on ordeflowforex.com.
Can anyone let me know where and how to start the global macro analysis?
I'm also trying to learn stop hunting, options effect and bond market effect on currency.

Looking forward for your reply.

Thanks,
Logesh
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Forgot to reply to you. Key is to read a lot, there is no other way around it that I know. I started reading like crazy in late 2007, never stopped since. Usually around 3-4 hours a day of all kinds of blogs, newspapers, magazines etc.

Some of that reading might not be useful if you don't have the fundamentals down so I would focus on that at first. Kahn Academy has lots of free videos on finance, economics, statistics etc. Not all of it is right but it should give you a solid foundation. Wikipedia and Investopedia is also good in order to drill down the fundamentals. After that you need to become a specialist in a specific areas in order to obtain an edge, at that point it helps for you to decide the areas you want to master and focus on that, for instance if you wanted to become really good with stock fundamentals you would read the Buffett letters, Damodaran books(Which I found quite useful), accounting books etc

After that you can move on to other markets of your interest. With regards to overall macro, it helps to be aware of studies and how some variables affect the fundamentals. Thats where blogs helps because when the studies are published they sometimes get passed around on that. I have a list of 70 bookmarks that I go through daily, let me know if you are interested on that and I can post here

At the end of the day you have to like markets a lot because you will spend a lot of time learning and reading about it. I would definitively recommend getting a kindle or some kind of ereader because you will save some money in the book buying and make it faster too. Also Audible is great, I can listen to a book while I do something else. Really useful

Of course, all the information in the world won't help if you are not interpreting it right, thats where having a flexible mind is key, definitively don't fall in love with your macro theory if that is costing you money. You have to be really humble about what you know, I'd recommend the book A New Earth by Eckhart Tolle. There is definitively some new agey stuff there that is bs and too mystical for my taste but his comments on the human ego and how that affects behavior(and how to overcome it) are awesome
 
Covered the rest of the euro short ahead of the ECB meeting (though I still have a few put options hanging around out there). Methinks something's up. :)
 
Second sell-side upgrade of WMT in a week this morning. Nice move. Where were these geniuses when the stock was 25% cheaper after the NYT hit piece a few months back? Gonna look into selling covered calls on my holdings. For a decent premium, I'm happing to let anybody have my shares 5-10% higher from here in the next 6 months.
 
Instincts were spot on for Annaly two weeks ago. Downgrades are flying and the stock is off about 5% since. Sadly, I only sold 60% of it. I wouldn't sell more here, but I wouldn't buy just yet. The ones where I redeployed the cash - CMO and NCT - are doing just fine.

Excited about Zillow earnings tonight. Either it beats and goes up 10% or it misses, dives 20%, and I get to buy more at a far better price. Either way should be fun, but the fact remains that the company is doing great and should continue doing so. I only hope it stays independent (i.e. doesn't get bought by some giant) long enough to quintuple in value.
 
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