This isn't really global macro, but - ZNGA, is this the worst IPO ever, or what? At this rate they will soon become a value stock 
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
So let's get the discussion back onto the thread. Let's hear views on equity index, FI, comms, PMs, ags, and econ data. I'll go 1st, with the summer chop it seems the mkt is waiting for news out of the FOMC next week and NFPs. I was a massive bull up to July, but with the amount of sectors breaking down and companies beating estimates, even though estimates are low, and still selling off this leads me to believe that there is some serious headwinds ahead. I don't see it likely that QE3 will come out after Twist was extended, but the FED may have new ways to try and ease. Unknown unknowns of course.
Data for NA is sluggish, but still better than the rest of the globe, and it looks like global CBs are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they ease nuclear, it only contributes to fuelling the rally in grains even more, impacting the populace where it really hurts just to get assets to rise. But anything short of nuclear easing seems to not have an impact anymore, leading to lower spot. Of course, then deflationary fears come back and the liquidity taps flow again.
Data for NA is sluggish, but still better than the rest of the globe, and it looks like global CBs are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they ease nuclear, it only contributes to fuelling the rally in grains even more, impacting the populace where it really hurts just to get assets to rise. But anything short of nuclear easing seems to not have an impact anymore, leading to lower spot. Of course, then deflationary fears come back and the liquidity taps flow again.
Equities - no view. Mongolia is in a secular boom, Greece will probably be the buy of a lifetime in the next 6-18 months.
FI - overvalued bull market that will eventually end in a parabolic blowoff.
Commodities - natural gas and soybean meal are in early-stage bull markets.
PMs - long-term bull market, medium-term is a trading range. Stand aside or play the range until a proper breakout.
Ags - see commodities
Econ data - not a tradable market, who cares.
US Election - Obama is a lock to win, barring some disaster (assassination, heart attack, fucking a mistress etc). 57% is a gift on Intrade.
FX - Euro is in a bear market.
Used the nice bounce today to unload my MSFT. I know Ballmer is in a tough spot, but I think he's doing everything he can to destroy the franchise. A value stock may be becoming a value trap.
Windows 8 is the last straw.
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2012/07/changing-my-mind-on-microsoft.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-18996377#TWEET178385
Still made double digits on the stock in about a year of ownership (held in a tax-advantaged account so no income tax hit). Am taking some of the cash and buying NCT, off big following a secondary (people just don't understand mREITs, though NCT isn't a traditional one).
Now back to my vacation.
I'll have plenty to say on macro stuff in August!
Windows 8 is the last straw.
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2012/07/changing-my-mind-on-microsoft.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-18996377#TWEET178385
Still made double digits on the stock in about a year of ownership (held in a tax-advantaged account so no income tax hit). Am taking some of the cash and buying NCT, off big following a secondary (people just don't understand mREITs, though NCT isn't a traditional one).
Now back to my vacation.
I'll have plenty to say on macro stuff in August!
Is AAPL now a broken stock for the next quarter? They have two negatives - European problems slowing sales, and iPhone order hold-offs until the 5 comes out. Next quarter could be an even bigger miss due to these two factors. The main support is that it's still very cheap on an earnings basis and has a huge cash horde, and the iPhone 5 should be another huge hit.
I forgot to mention, I'm also an owner of Google now. The stock has been on my radar screen for awhile. Just as it was illogical to own WMT and MSFT and not own AAPL, it's also illogical to own those and not own GOOG (of course I'm out of MSFT now, just because mgmt is such a disaster).
The final straw pushing me to buy was a long, bullish piece on the stock by Jim Grant. Taking out the cash on the balance sheet, the company trades at a lower multiple than the S&P. Crazy. Big swinging dicks could probably short SPY against a long in GOOG all day every day for the next few years.
Next stock up for research and a possible buy is BX - AUM are exploding as the stock does nothing. The shares are priced as if the company will never again earn carried interest. Crazy.
The final straw pushing me to buy was a long, bullish piece on the stock by Jim Grant. Taking out the cash on the balance sheet, the company trades at a lower multiple than the S&P. Crazy. Big swinging dicks could probably short SPY against a long in GOOG all day every day for the next few years.
Next stock up for research and a possible buy is BX - AUM are exploding as the stock does nothing. The shares are priced as if the company will never again earn carried interest. Crazy.
And sure enough, here comes Wells Fargo with the NLY downgrade.
http://www.dividend.com/blog/?p=50658
Stock is off 1%. The rest of the sector is just fine. Newcastle has already made back all of its post-secondary offering losses. Efficient markets? I'm losing count, but Newcastle has to be like the 5th mREIT to do a secondary in July.
It's like clockwork. The share prices go 10% (or so) above BV. The company announces a secondary. Investors throw a fit and start carping about ponzi schemes. The stock drops 2-4%. Within 72 hours the stock has bounced back the entire amount (and more). If folks spent 5 minutes studying accounting, they would be buying on these secondaries, not throwing fits. Crazy.
http://www.dividend.com/blog/?p=50658
Stock is off 1%. The rest of the sector is just fine. Newcastle has already made back all of its post-secondary offering losses. Efficient markets? I'm losing count, but Newcastle has to be like the 5th mREIT to do a secondary in July.
It's like clockwork. The share prices go 10% (or so) above BV. The company announces a secondary. Investors throw a fit and start carping about ponzi schemes. The stock drops 2-4%. Within 72 hours the stock has bounced back the entire amount (and more). If folks spent 5 minutes studying accounting, they would be buying on these secondaries, not throwing fits. Crazy.
@ralph: Agreed on GOOG, it came up as an investment (not trade) candidate for me as well, in the next bull run this is easily a 1K stock. The issue I have with owning equities (over futures) is : do I try and time the purchase and risk paying up, or just close my eyes with a set risk amt and buy?
Apple at $602.50 on my screen right now - above its level from before the "horrid" earnings release.
Who knows where the stock goes for the next quarter. The company continues to trade at a ridiculous multiple. The PE is 14 on my Google screen right now. This doesn't factor in cash on the balance sheet, which brings the PE close to single digits. Consider VZ (which I also own, but am thinking about exiting) - next to nothing as far as profit growth, yet trading at a far higher multiple. It yields 4.45%. Nice, but not enough reason. Put me down as moving to the camp believing in a bubble in dividend payers.
This doesn't mean dividend paying stocks are set to crumble, but more likely the valuations of growth and cyclical stocks are about to get a major upgrade vis a vis the dividend payers.