Well that's not too surprising - funds with $10bill+ under management, that have been going for 1 or 2 decades, don't need any tv marketing, they are already deluged with investors trying to get money in on the basis of past reputation and performance. In fact, some of them (e.g. Brevan Howard) are actually returning capital to investors. Small funds which have only been around a few years find it harder to attract money, so some of the managers will use marketing to try and boost AUM.
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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Well that's not too surprising - funds with $10bill+ under management, that have been going for 1 or 2 decades, don't need any tv marketing, they are already deluged with investors trying to get money in on the basis of past reputation and performance. In fact, some of them (e.g. Brevan Howard) are actually returning capital to investors. Small funds which have only been around a few years find it harder to attract money, so some of the managers will use marketing to try and boost AUM.
Agreed you are correct in questioning the examples I gave. But what about the idea? Let me put forward the arguments in a different light.
Of course, if world stays like it is today, the peg will stand. The scenario when peg will break is if and when Europe undergoes a massive contagion and quick collapse. If suddenly yields in major economies start to cross 10%, and euro goes to 1.20 in 10 trading days from 1.35, Swiss will find it incredibly hard to maintain the peg. And what if Euro breaks the 1.19 and quickly within 2-3 weeks approach 1.00!! What is the probability of this happening - let us say 5-10%. In such a scenario, this is easy to foresee that peg will break.
On a completely different note, not many people thought in 1986 that USSR is going to disintegrate next year.
I believe a lot of people are misunderstading the peg. Its just the perfect excuse for the SNB do to QE. The reason they went along with the politicians pressure was because their inflation rate is too low. If the EUR tanks against everything they will hold the peg because they HAVE to do QE anyway
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/inflation-cpi
They have a 2% inflation target. Its not a problem at all for them to keep buying EURs. Put that inflation at 2% and then I might consider buying CHFs against EURs
Thanks for your points - that makes me think.
Btw, what do you make of the following excerpt from the link you sent. The chart doesn't confirm it and obviously it seems either it is a mis-print or something that I don't understand.
Following please:
"The inflation rate in Switzerland was last reported at -0.1 percent in October of 2011. From 1971 until 2010, the average inflation rate in Switzerland was 79.12 percent reaching an historical high of 4617.84 percent in June of 1994 and a record low of -0.10 percent in November of 1986."
Euro and aussie opening up solidly/sharply higher on the basis of ... nothing in particular except stupid hope. Two weeks ago, this Sunday night move up was one of the more obvious fades ever. 400 pips lower for the euro and 600 pips lower for the aussie, it's not such a clear fade tonight. Will wait awhile before reloading.
Sure, but you have to treat each case on its own merits. The situation in Japan is a lot trickier for the BoJ and there are actual immediate constraints to how aggressive they can be. Not so much for the SNB, IMHO. The one real concern that may arise for them is the argument that the long-term effects of aggressive interventions are insidiuous and very damaging. Specifically, you could claim that the seeds of recession in the 90s that was caused by the collapse of the housing bubble were actually sowed by the aggressive SNB policies of the previous decades. However, I don't think that's gonna sway the SNB and the politicians much here and now. Moreover, they're aware of the issues and are trying to resolve them by other means.
That can't possibly be right, according to their very own chart.
Lovely symmetry to AUDUSD over the past couple of months. A perfect LoBogala performed twice from Sept-Nov. Now back on the way up. The only question: is it another LoBogala, i.e. wait until $1.07 to short again, or will this month's move fall short?
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=AUDUSD&tf=d1
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=AUDUSD&tf=d1