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GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
Salesforce price target raised to $273 from $252 at Macquarie 09:57 CRM Macquarie analyst Frederick Havemeyer raised the firm's price target on Salesforce to $273 from $252 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Salesforce reported a solid quarter and raised top-line guidance, Havemeyer tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes that Salesforce is benefiting from multi-year digital transformation trends as the best-of-breed CRM vendor.
SeaWorld price target raised to $54 from $38 at Truist
Portnoy says he bought Churchill Capital IV shares, will 'probably get killed' 09:03 CCIV Dave Portnoy, the founder of Barstool Sports, tweeted earlier: "I had a billion people tell me $cciv was the go button today. I bought it. I'll prob get killed. Listen, here's the thing. If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker." In pre-market trading, the shares of the SPAC, which recently announced a deal to merge with and bring public high-end electric vehicle maker Lucid Motors, are up $3.78, or 14%, to $31.60.
so...this past week was tough. but this morning i put in a little more bioplastics research, this time on my tiny Australian stock, Leaf Resources, as it jumped 10% at the end of their trading week, which is our Thursday night. It jumped to a whopping .08 Australian, so it's now six cents. It was a bad/horrific day for both US and Australian markets, so I was trying to figure out why the jump, but didn't make any headway.
As I read about Leaf, though, it made me realize how similar this stock is to something like that Artius Acquisition Spac merge with bioplastic Origin Materials. They both are making sustainable chemicals from wood. That one jumped to $14 at the announcement but has dropped back down to about $10, its pre-announcement price. Sure Origin has a partnership with Pepsi, etc, but it's all still speculative and they--like Leaf Resources--are just now building their first factory and are making currently zero profits. Origin is the US market, but the Australian market has access to Asia.
Who knows how bioplastics and biofuels will work in the future. But this past week made me think about how, if you believe in the tech, that the transition to the future will be uneven and slow and probably frustrating, and that six cents is probably a fair entry price. I'm considering selling my canadian algae stock (don't ask) and putting more in to LER.
Algae for the sea floor as in kelp is going to save the world! Algae for other stuff not so sure.
The future will have hydrogen. Somehow. And half electric flying planes... That's the new movement in air travel...
LEAF sounds like it would make a good SPAC... but are the SPAC days over?
There is a lesson in declining pops here... I think to a certain degree it's good we don't want Hedge funds buying dormant stocks for ten dollars and then every time getting the free money
the trade had to unwind and it has recent moves have been 50 cents or even down!
I'm like last guy in I have two of these SPACS... Or I'm like the guy that turns around and attempts the burning tunnel a 2nd time....
The future will have hydrogen. Somehow. And half electric flying planes... That's the new movement in air travel...
LEAF sounds like it would make a good SPAC... but are the SPAC days over?
There is a lesson in declining pops here... I think to a certain degree it's good we don't want Hedge funds buying dormant stocks for ten dollars and then every time getting the free money
the trade had to unwind and it has recent moves have been 50 cents or even down!
I'm like last guy in I have two of these SPACS... Or I'm like the guy that turns around and attempts the burning tunnel a 2nd time....
WATCH LIST-
Ternium(TX) leads the list, with consensus analyst estimates calling for 2,883% EPS growth in Q1. Based in Luxembourg, the steel-maker has been on a roller-coaster ride since going public in 2006. After producing 486% earnings growth in Q4, TX stock is trying to complete a second-stage chart pattern.
SPAC IPOS: OUT OF CONTROL!!!!!!
Arya Sciences Acquisition Corp IV(ARYD) had priced its initial public offering of 13M class A ordinary shares at $10.00 per share and opened on February 26 at $10.95. Arya intends to focus on the healthcare industry in the United States and other developed countries, and focus on target businesses with valuations of $300M to $500M or more and that have the potential to be $1B or more market capitalization companies.
Twelve Seas Investment Company II(TWLV) had priced its initial public offering of 30M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $9.95. Twelve Seas intends to focus its search on companies located outside the United States, primarily in the Pan-Eurasian region, including Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Austerlitz Acquisition Corporation I(AUS) had priced its initial public offering of 60M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.25.
Austerlitz Acquisition Corporation II(ASZ) had priced its initial public offering of 120M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.12.
Freedom Acquisition I(FACT) had priced its upsized initial public offering of 30M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.10. Freedom Acquisition intends to pursue a target in the financial services sector.
SilverBox Engaged Merger Corp I(SBEA) had priced its initial public offering of 30M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.05. In connection with the initial public offering, the company has entered into a forward purchase agreement with Engaged Capital that will provide for the aggregate purchase of $100M of class A common stock at $10.00 per share. Any such purchases will take place in a private placement that will close concurrently with the closing of the company's initial business combination.
Ibere Pharmaceuticals(IBER) had priced its upsized initial public offering of 12M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10. Ibere is a blank check company that intends to focus on opportunities in the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries.
Fusion Acquisition Corp. II(FSNB) had priced its initial public offering of 43.5M units at a price of $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.05. Fusion Acquisition Corp. II intends to focus on businesses with an enterprise value of approximately $1.5B to $5B that are providing or changing technology within the fintech or wealth, investment and asset management sectors, or certain types of technology companies that lie adjacent to the fintech sector.
African Gold Acquisition(AGAC) priced its upsized initial public offering of 36M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10. African Gold Acquisition intends to focus on a target with operations or prospective operations in the gold mining sector.
EJF Acquisition(EJFA) opened on February 25 at $10.10. The blank check had company priced its initial public offering of 25M units at $10.00 per unit. EJF will target financial services companies "with products, services and technologies that support, enable or compete in the regulated and unregulated sectors where the company has historically invested, including banking, insurance, asset management, specialty lending and real estate finance."
Cartersian Growth(GLBL) opened on February 24 at $10.35. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 30M units, upsized from 25M units, at $10.00 per unit.
Soaring Eagle Acquisition(SRNG) opened on February 24 at $10.75. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 150M units at $10.00 per unit. Soaring Eagle intends to "capitalize on the ability of its management team to identify, acquire and operate a business or businesses that can benefit from its management team's established global relationships and operating experience." The company added that "the company's management team has extensive experience in identifying and executing strategic investments globally and has done so successfully in a number of sectors, including media and entertainment."
FTAC Athena Acquisition(FTAA) opened on February 23 at $10.55. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 22M units at $10.00 per unit.
Slam Corp.(SLAM) opened on February 23 at $10.28. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 50M units at $10.00 per unit. Slam Corp. has not selected any business combination target and will not be limited to a particular industry or geographic region. The company's founding partners are A-Rod Corp and Antara Capital LP.
Gores Holding VII(GSEV) opened on February 23 at $10.35. The blank check company had priced 48M units at $10.
Arctos NorthStar Acquisition(ANAC) opened on February 23 at $10.26. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 27.5M units at $10.00 per unit. Arctos currently intends to pursue opportunities in the sports, media and entertainment sectors.
UPCOMING IPOS:Among the upcoming IPOs are Coinbase (COIN), Roblox (RBLX), Coupang (CPNG), Caliber Home Loans (HOMS), Pharming Group (PHAR), Cricut (CRCT), Gold Royalty (GROY), Oscar Health (OSCR), Tuya and Havre Global AB. According to recent reports, upstart food companies Chobani and Oatly are also making plans to come public.
WOW! CHOBANI APPEALS... Because they have good PR and good yogurt. I use OSCAR but it's a troubled business... Coinbase YIKES that's going to be huge probably.... Not sure what Roblox but it sounds familiar... Unless that's robot.
Ternium(TX) leads the list, with consensus analyst estimates calling for 2,883% EPS growth in Q1. Based in Luxembourg, the steel-maker has been on a roller-coaster ride since going public in 2006. After producing 486% earnings growth in Q4, TX stock is trying to complete a second-stage chart pattern.
SPAC IPOS: OUT OF CONTROL!!!!!!
Arya Sciences Acquisition Corp IV(ARYD) had priced its initial public offering of 13M class A ordinary shares at $10.00 per share and opened on February 26 at $10.95. Arya intends to focus on the healthcare industry in the United States and other developed countries, and focus on target businesses with valuations of $300M to $500M or more and that have the potential to be $1B or more market capitalization companies.
Twelve Seas Investment Company II(TWLV) had priced its initial public offering of 30M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $9.95. Twelve Seas intends to focus its search on companies located outside the United States, primarily in the Pan-Eurasian region, including Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Austerlitz Acquisition Corporation I(AUS) had priced its initial public offering of 60M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.25.
Austerlitz Acquisition Corporation II(ASZ) had priced its initial public offering of 120M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.12.
Freedom Acquisition I(FACT) had priced its upsized initial public offering of 30M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.10. Freedom Acquisition intends to pursue a target in the financial services sector.
SilverBox Engaged Merger Corp I(SBEA) had priced its initial public offering of 30M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.05. In connection with the initial public offering, the company has entered into a forward purchase agreement with Engaged Capital that will provide for the aggregate purchase of $100M of class A common stock at $10.00 per share. Any such purchases will take place in a private placement that will close concurrently with the closing of the company's initial business combination.
Ibere Pharmaceuticals(IBER) had priced its upsized initial public offering of 12M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10. Ibere is a blank check company that intends to focus on opportunities in the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries.
Fusion Acquisition Corp. II(FSNB) had priced its initial public offering of 43.5M units at a price of $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10.05. Fusion Acquisition Corp. II intends to focus on businesses with an enterprise value of approximately $1.5B to $5B that are providing or changing technology within the fintech or wealth, investment and asset management sectors, or certain types of technology companies that lie adjacent to the fintech sector.
African Gold Acquisition(AGAC) priced its upsized initial public offering of 36M units at $10.00 per unit and opened on February 26 at $10. African Gold Acquisition intends to focus on a target with operations or prospective operations in the gold mining sector.
EJF Acquisition(EJFA) opened on February 25 at $10.10. The blank check had company priced its initial public offering of 25M units at $10.00 per unit. EJF will target financial services companies "with products, services and technologies that support, enable or compete in the regulated and unregulated sectors where the company has historically invested, including banking, insurance, asset management, specialty lending and real estate finance."
Cartersian Growth(GLBL) opened on February 24 at $10.35. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 30M units, upsized from 25M units, at $10.00 per unit.
Soaring Eagle Acquisition(SRNG) opened on February 24 at $10.75. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 150M units at $10.00 per unit. Soaring Eagle intends to "capitalize on the ability of its management team to identify, acquire and operate a business or businesses that can benefit from its management team's established global relationships and operating experience." The company added that "the company's management team has extensive experience in identifying and executing strategic investments globally and has done so successfully in a number of sectors, including media and entertainment."
FTAC Athena Acquisition(FTAA) opened on February 23 at $10.55. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 22M units at $10.00 per unit.
Slam Corp.(SLAM) opened on February 23 at $10.28. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 50M units at $10.00 per unit. Slam Corp. has not selected any business combination target and will not be limited to a particular industry or geographic region. The company's founding partners are A-Rod Corp and Antara Capital LP.
Gores Holding VII(GSEV) opened on February 23 at $10.35. The blank check company had priced 48M units at $10.
Arctos NorthStar Acquisition(ANAC) opened on February 23 at $10.26. The blank check company had priced its initial public offering of 27.5M units at $10.00 per unit. Arctos currently intends to pursue opportunities in the sports, media and entertainment sectors.
UPCOMING IPOS:Among the upcoming IPOs are Coinbase (COIN), Roblox (RBLX), Coupang (CPNG), Caliber Home Loans (HOMS), Pharming Group (PHAR), Cricut (CRCT), Gold Royalty (GROY), Oscar Health (OSCR), Tuya and Havre Global AB. According to recent reports, upstart food companies Chobani and Oatly are also making plans to come public.
WOW! CHOBANI APPEALS... Because they have good PR and good yogurt. I use OSCAR but it's a troubled business... Coinbase YIKES that's going to be huge probably.... Not sure what Roblox but it sounds familiar... Unless that's robot.
I profiled Drone Deliver Canada at least twice. Now it is being called a MEME stock? what does that mean?
Drone Delivery Canada: Not Just A Meme Stock-?
Feb. 26, 2021 4:17 PM ET Drone Delivery Canada Corp. (TAKOF)17 Comments8 Likes
Millcroft Research- No idea.
Summary
In an era of meme-stock euphoria and "Dogecoin," it would be easy to dismiss a company whose name contains the words "drone delivery" and has tickers like TAKOF and FLT (cue the rocket emojis). Despite my initial apprehensions due to the aforementioned, I have been following Drone Delivery Canada (OTCQX:TAKOF) for the past 18 months and believe they are poised for "takeoff" so to speak, with a legitimate foundation and go to market strategy.
Me Too!
Not Your Average Drone Company
When most people first hear Drone Delivery Canada, or FLT, the impulse may be to envision a swarm of buzzing drones delivering Amazon parcels to doorsteps - this was at least my first impression. When you take a look under the hood however, FLT is quite different, at least for the time being. FLT's operating model is currently focused on businesses and government organisations as their client base. They are also using their solutions to address important social issues, such as dramatically improving accessibility to goods for remote and indigenous communities. <-- No money in that!
This is achieved by offering order of magnitude efficiencies in logistics to regions without road access, or other conventional means of transport. The approach has helped FLT build positive relationships with key regulatory bodies like Transport Canada, which has in turn helped them navigate some of the toughest hurdles to bringing drone delivery to fruition.
The Service
FLT offers a complete turnkey drone delivery solution. This includes proprietary software for managing the actual flights, hardware, and all related services including regulatory compliance which is particularly vital when it comes to drone operations.
The applications range from health care (think AEDs, blood, medical tests, organs, vaccines, etc.), to industrial use cases like mining and oil & gas. Logistics also represent a massive area of potential for FLT, in particular the last mile component of the delivery chain. In just the last quarter of 2020 alone, they signed LOIs with 6 couriers including India based CSC Group and Kenya's Astral Aerial, highlighting their prospects for international expansion.
FLT has already began piloting the delivery of medical supplies, PPE, test kits and vaccines to the Beausoleil First Nation and Georgina Island First Nation communities as part of COVID-19-related efforts. They are now in discussions with both federal and provincial governments in Canada to commercially assist with the vaccine distribution as it rolls out nationwide. FLT has even announced ambitions to service vaccine distribution efforts internationally.
Air Canada Cargo
Something I like about FLT is the partnership they have developed with Air Canada Cargo, who intends to use FLT's drone solutions to complement their logistics network and facilitate last mile delivery. Air Canada Cargo acts as a sales and marketing agent on behalf of FLT, allowing them to leverage their existing global network to promote FLT's services. Given the significant reductions in passenger traffic due to COVID-19, Air Canada made a strategic pivot to bolster their Cargo division and managed to grow this segment of the business in 2020, despite floundering sales elsewhere. Air Canada Cargo has already earmarked up to 150,000 routes for which they believe FLT can contribute to their logistics services. Reinforcing this partnership, is Air Canada Cargo's former VP Tim Strauss who sits on FLT's Advisory Board - which leads to my next point.<--
I'm still not smelling any money out of this...
In total Drone Delivery has 31 employees as of last annual report, however they are currently looking to facilitate their expansion. With an active hiring surge on Glassdoor, FLT is currently hiring for 12 roles across functions such as Business Development, Sales and Compliance. While 12 may not sound like much in absolute terms, this represents nearly 50% growth in employees for just the beginning of 2021.
Source: Glassdoor
Financials & Valuation
On Feb 16th they were expected to report their first quarter of meaningful revenue, with consensus for Q420 around ~$1.2M, reflecting initial deals secured with remote communities in Canada. Sales are expected to ramp up rapidly the following year, with FY21 consensus around 10X higher at ~$12M. This is partially attributed to the previously discussed LOIs they have recently signed. From a profitability standpoint, FLT is expected to hit an inflection point and turn a profit by end of FY22.
FLT has negligible debt (less than $1M) and has built up cash reserves of over $13M as of last filing.
Let's come back to earth for a moment and focus on just the early-stage applications. There are over 1000 remote communities in Canada and FLT's deal with Moose Factory is valued at $2.5M/year alone. Let's assume a conservative $1M/community and 10% penetration - that's $100M in ARR alone for servicing Canadian remote communities. This is not even considering the full portfolio ofearly-stageapplications, such as industrial and healthcare segments, OR the international opportunities beyond Canada, which FLT has already made headway on. The US market also presents a massive opportunity, with the Federal Aviation Association recently announcing the approval of commercial drone flight over civilians and at night time. FLT announced their plans to enter the US market in July 2020 and the CEO of cargo airline Amerijet International sits on their Advisory Board, which presents a strategic entry point for the US market - similar to FLT's Canadian strategy via Air Canada Cargo.
Given a potential $275B TAM and FLT's positioning in the market in conjunction with the above conservative ARR estimates, it is very possible they will be doing north of $1B ARR by the end of the decade. So even if we assume a conservative EV/Sales multiple of 4 (which is less than half the S&P's 5 year average of 8.5), FLT has well over 10X upside for the decade from their current EV of ~$300M, so long as they continue to execute on their current trajectory. If FLT manages to lead in multiple regions and solve autonomous drone flight both technology and regulatory wise - it would not be ludicrous to suggest they could grab and retain 5+% of the global delivery market given their early leadership, potentially securing upwards of $25B+ in ARR and a corresponding valuation in the double-digit billions.
Ownership
Source: Bloomberg
Aside from Fidelity who owns just over 10% between their True North and Special Situations Funds, there is not a single other institution with significant ownership above 1%.
Most of the ownership is held by individual investors or insiders and total current institutional ownership is only just over 11%:
Source: Bloomberg
This presents a compelling opportunity for retail investors to buy in before institutional money rushes in - which would appear to be already starting to happen as of the end of 2020 as per below, daily trading volume has spiked to more than 10X historical averages in the past 2 months:
Source: Bloomberg
Recent Performance
FLT had been on a bit of a tear the past 2 months, more than doubling in price. The last 2 weeks it has pulled back a bit and seems to have found a support level just below $2/share, although it is still too early to tell. The stock has spiked north of $2 once before and fell back substantially, however this was in the early days of FLT prior to any real proof of concept or operations, and was supported by significantly lower trading volume (~4-5X lower).
FLT is very well positioned as a leader in a potentially massive and disruptive industry. If you have the patience and liquidity to hold for a few years, I truly believe FLT offers the kind of asymmetric upside of early-stage VC, with the accessibility benefits of public equity.
Whole art here-
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4409660-drone-delivery-canada-not-a-meme-stock
Drone Delivery Canada: Not Just A Meme Stock-?
Feb. 26, 2021 4:17 PM ET Drone Delivery Canada Corp. (TAKOF)17 Comments8 Likes
Millcroft Research- No idea.
Summary
- The company is set to participate in the growth of the drone delivery market that's forecast to swell to $275B by 2030.
- Drone Delivery Canada is building a sturdy moat through a SaaS model and relationships with key regulatory bodies.
- Global expansion is underway with multiple partnerships announced with global logistics companies and couriers.
- Drone Delivery Canada is dramatically reducing shipping costs for remote communities, increasing participation and accessibility to the economy for disadvantaged populations.
In an era of meme-stock euphoria and "Dogecoin," it would be easy to dismiss a company whose name contains the words "drone delivery" and has tickers like TAKOF and FLT (cue the rocket emojis). Despite my initial apprehensions due to the aforementioned, I have been following Drone Delivery Canada (OTCQX:TAKOF) for the past 18 months and believe they are poised for "takeoff" so to speak, with a legitimate foundation and go to market strategy.
Me Too!
Not Your Average Drone Company
When most people first hear Drone Delivery Canada, or FLT, the impulse may be to envision a swarm of buzzing drones delivering Amazon parcels to doorsteps - this was at least my first impression. When you take a look under the hood however, FLT is quite different, at least for the time being. FLT's operating model is currently focused on businesses and government organisations as their client base. They are also using their solutions to address important social issues, such as dramatically improving accessibility to goods for remote and indigenous communities. <-- No money in that!
This is achieved by offering order of magnitude efficiencies in logistics to regions without road access, or other conventional means of transport. The approach has helped FLT build positive relationships with key regulatory bodies like Transport Canada, which has in turn helped them navigate some of the toughest hurdles to bringing drone delivery to fruition.
The Service
FLT offers a complete turnkey drone delivery solution. This includes proprietary software for managing the actual flights, hardware, and all related services including regulatory compliance which is particularly vital when it comes to drone operations.
The applications range from health care (think AEDs, blood, medical tests, organs, vaccines, etc.), to industrial use cases like mining and oil & gas. Logistics also represent a massive area of potential for FLT, in particular the last mile component of the delivery chain. In just the last quarter of 2020 alone, they signed LOIs with 6 couriers including India based CSC Group and Kenya's Astral Aerial, highlighting their prospects for international expansion.
FLT has already began piloting the delivery of medical supplies, PPE, test kits and vaccines to the Beausoleil First Nation and Georgina Island First Nation communities as part of COVID-19-related efforts. They are now in discussions with both federal and provincial governments in Canada to commercially assist with the vaccine distribution as it rolls out nationwide. FLT has even announced ambitions to service vaccine distribution efforts internationally.
Air Canada Cargo
Something I like about FLT is the partnership they have developed with Air Canada Cargo, who intends to use FLT's drone solutions to complement their logistics network and facilitate last mile delivery. Air Canada Cargo acts as a sales and marketing agent on behalf of FLT, allowing them to leverage their existing global network to promote FLT's services. Given the significant reductions in passenger traffic due to COVID-19, Air Canada made a strategic pivot to bolster their Cargo division and managed to grow this segment of the business in 2020, despite floundering sales elsewhere. Air Canada Cargo has already earmarked up to 150,000 routes for which they believe FLT can contribute to their logistics services. Reinforcing this partnership, is Air Canada Cargo's former VP Tim Strauss who sits on FLT's Advisory Board - which leads to my next point.<--
I'm still not smelling any money out of this...
In total Drone Delivery has 31 employees as of last annual report, however they are currently looking to facilitate their expansion. With an active hiring surge on Glassdoor, FLT is currently hiring for 12 roles across functions such as Business Development, Sales and Compliance. While 12 may not sound like much in absolute terms, this represents nearly 50% growth in employees for just the beginning of 2021.
Source: Glassdoor
Financials & Valuation
On Feb 16th they were expected to report their first quarter of meaningful revenue, with consensus for Q420 around ~$1.2M, reflecting initial deals secured with remote communities in Canada. Sales are expected to ramp up rapidly the following year, with FY21 consensus around 10X higher at ~$12M. This is partially attributed to the previously discussed LOIs they have recently signed. From a profitability standpoint, FLT is expected to hit an inflection point and turn a profit by end of FY22.
FLT has negligible debt (less than $1M) and has built up cash reserves of over $13M as of last filing.
Let's come back to earth for a moment and focus on just the early-stage applications. There are over 1000 remote communities in Canada and FLT's deal with Moose Factory is valued at $2.5M/year alone. Let's assume a conservative $1M/community and 10% penetration - that's $100M in ARR alone for servicing Canadian remote communities. This is not even considering the full portfolio ofearly-stageapplications, such as industrial and healthcare segments, OR the international opportunities beyond Canada, which FLT has already made headway on. The US market also presents a massive opportunity, with the Federal Aviation Association recently announcing the approval of commercial drone flight over civilians and at night time. FLT announced their plans to enter the US market in July 2020 and the CEO of cargo airline Amerijet International sits on their Advisory Board, which presents a strategic entry point for the US market - similar to FLT's Canadian strategy via Air Canada Cargo.
Given a potential $275B TAM and FLT's positioning in the market in conjunction with the above conservative ARR estimates, it is very possible they will be doing north of $1B ARR by the end of the decade. So even if we assume a conservative EV/Sales multiple of 4 (which is less than half the S&P's 5 year average of 8.5), FLT has well over 10X upside for the decade from their current EV of ~$300M, so long as they continue to execute on their current trajectory. If FLT manages to lead in multiple regions and solve autonomous drone flight both technology and regulatory wise - it would not be ludicrous to suggest they could grab and retain 5+% of the global delivery market given their early leadership, potentially securing upwards of $25B+ in ARR and a corresponding valuation in the double-digit billions.
Ownership
Source: BloombergAside from Fidelity who owns just over 10% between their True North and Special Situations Funds, there is not a single other institution with significant ownership above 1%.
Most of the ownership is held by individual investors or insiders and total current institutional ownership is only just over 11%:
Source: Bloomberg
This presents a compelling opportunity for retail investors to buy in before institutional money rushes in - which would appear to be already starting to happen as of the end of 2020 as per below, daily trading volume has spiked to more than 10X historical averages in the past 2 months:
Source: Bloomberg
Recent Performance
FLT had been on a bit of a tear the past 2 months, more than doubling in price. The last 2 weeks it has pulled back a bit and seems to have found a support level just below $2/share, although it is still too early to tell. The stock has spiked north of $2 once before and fell back substantially, however this was in the early days of FLT prior to any real proof of concept or operations, and was supported by significantly lower trading volume (~4-5X lower).
FLT is very well positioned as a leader in a potentially massive and disruptive industry. If you have the patience and liquidity to hold for a few years, I truly believe FLT offers the kind of asymmetric upside of early-stage VC, with the accessibility benefits of public equity.
Whole art here-
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4409660-drone-delivery-canada-not-a-meme-stock
the days for spacs in bioplastics i would say are officially over.