GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

Hindenberg on the hunt SPACS the target

SPAC party may come to end soon, hedge fund manager warns
Feb. 28, 2021 9:00 AM ETChurchill Capital Corp IV (CCIV)
  • The SPAC frenzy that has swept the market may be abruptly coming to an end, potentially in the next few weeks, according a hedge fund manager.
  • With the IPOX SPAC index down more than 13% over the past week, the signs of trouble in SPACland appear to be rising.
  • "If this continues for another week or two, the SPAC market is dead," Orso Partners co-founder Nate Koppikar told Institutional Investor in an interview.
  • Koppikar warns SPAC valuations have been rising to outlandish levels because of lax disclosure requirements for these blank-check companies that he considers some as "pump and dumps."
  • "When people buy into SPACS, they're often buying incredibly overvalued companies," Koppikar told the publication.
  • Koppikar said that venture capital firms and PE funds are "sitting on companies they could not sell" and SPACs are the vehicles they are using to exit these companies.
  • Just this week Michael Klein's Churchill Capital IV (NYSE:CCIV), which had risen to as much of 5x its IPO level on speculation it would do a deal with electric-vehicle maker Lucid Motors, plunged 39% the day after the Lucid merger was confirmed.
  • That's at least partly because institutional investors agreed to buy into CCIV at $15 a share—a 50% premium to its net asset value, but far below its share price at the time.
  • Other signs of cracks in the SPAC bubble are showing as even SPAC superstars like famed venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya have been questioned.
  • Hindenburg Research, best known as of late for its short call on Nikola Corp.(NASDAQ:NKLA), put out a report on Palihapitya's Clover Health (NASDAQ:CLOV) earlier this month, claiming the company is being investigated by the Justice Department.
  • Clover Health admitted that it received a request for information from the DOJ and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The shares have dropped 33% since Feb. 3, the day before the report was published.
  • Hindenburg has targeted other SPAC-related companies including releasing a report in November on MultiPlan (NYSE:MPLN), a company that merged with a Churchill Capital SPAC.
  • And more may be on the way. Hindenburg tweeted Friday that it will be release a new report this week.....
 
stonedinvestor said:
More...
Stoney...
So I don't post on here for two days and the view count drops from 800+/day to less than 150?! And it has always spiked up on the weekends.
Hmmm.

Folks like precision I guess.
Scatter-shot 10X daily.... ahhh... you won't get a lot of views.

"Speak softly, but carry a big stick."

Or in this case. same principal as it applies to stocks...

"Speak sparingly, use one or two good picks."

VZ needs a (much larger) corner office.
;)
 
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Gentherm EPS beats by $0.43, beats on revenue
Mar. 01, 2021 6:01 AM ETGentherm Incorporated (THRM)
  • Gentherm(NASDAQ:THRM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.16beats by $0.43; GAAP EPS of $1.02beats by $0.23.
  • Revenue of $288.88M (+25.4% Y/Y)beats by $37.44M.
  • CEO comment: “While we expect continued market uncertainties in 2021, the momentum on the topline, expanding demand for our new technologies, especially in the EV market, coupled with our strong win rate of new awards position us well to continue to deliver significant shareholder value over the long term.”
Top Hydrogen Pick: Linde

This is a close call between Linde (LIN) and Air Products and Chemicals (APD). These are the largest hydrogen providers today. Most of their hydrogen comes from steam methane reforming today. A process that releases carbon monoxide. This can be mitigated by carbon capture which reduces emissions significantly.

I prefer Linde for its investments in electrolyzer technology. It has a joint-venture with ITM Power (OTCPK:ITMPF) to build large green hydrogen plants. Electrolyzers are most likely an important part of the transition to green hydrogen.

Do You HTOO? -Speculative Pick: Fusion Fuel
Fusion Fuel (HTOO,HTOOW) is a small company with proprietary technology to produce green hydrogen with solar electricity and electrolysis. A combination of both that uses also the heat from the solar panels offers excellent results in terms of energy conversion. I believe the HEVO-SOLAR technology is very promising and I have high expectations of the demonstration plant Fusion Fuel builds at Evora, Portugal. The company came to Nasdaq with a SPAC and hasn't generated any revenues so far. It has an ambitious business plan where it expects to be profitable in 2023. I just published an article that provides more detail about this high-risk company.


TECO 2030 AS (OTCPK:TECFF) is a Norwegian company. It's on the Norwegian public market since October 2020. It has three business lines: Marine Fuel Cells, Future Funnel, and Ballast Water Treatment System. The fuel cells are meant for hydrogen-powered ships and other heavy-duty installations. The company just released plans to build agiga factorywith a capacity of 1.2 gigawatts per year.

Decarbonization Plus Acquisition Corporation (DCRB) is a SPAC thatannouncedto merge with Hyzon Motors. Hyzon Motors is a fuel cell heavy vehicle company. This is a direct competitor of Nikola (NKLA). It has ambitious 2024 targets in itsinvestor presentation, it is unclear if it generates revenues today.

Advent (ADN) came to life through a SPAC merger on 02/19/2021. It put the SPAC money to use quickly as itacquiredUltraCell, the fuel cell division of Bren-Tronics. It presents a vertically-integrated supplier of fuel cells. Its technology can also be used in other applications such as energy storage, electrolysis, and Internet of Things sensors.
 
A SPAC To Consider-?
Fusion Fuel became a public company through a special purpose acquisition company -SPAC,HL Acquisitions. The company is based in Portugal and shows all figures in EUR. I converted the figures to USD where possible on a conversion rate of 1.21 EUR/USD. Fusion Fuel's founders manage the company and still have a large stake after the merger with HL Acquisitions.

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HEVO-SOLAR Technology
HEVO-SOLAR is a combination of Fusion Fuel's proprietary miniaturized PEM-based electrolyzer - HEVO and a high-efficiency solar solution. These are combined into large hydrogen generators that use both the electrical and thermal energy from solar radiation to produce hydrogen. The electrolyzer's direct coupling to the solar cell results in a high conversion rate. The system turns solar energy into hydrogen at a 27% conversion. This is a higher efficiency rate than a normal solar panel.

A single HEVO-SOLAR takes about 100m2 (1076 sq ft) space and weighs approximately 4 tons (8818 pounds). The project has an anticipated capital expenditure of $5.1 million. Fusion Fuel expects to receive a grant of around $1.8 million to support this project.

Green Hydrogen Utility-Scale Demonstrator
Fusion Fuel is building a demonstrator in Evora called the GreenGas project. During the first phase, 15 HEVO-SOLAR demonstrate the production of green hydrogen. The produced hydrogen converts into electricity at night. The project should go live in the second quarter of 2021. The second phase comprises an additional 40 HEVO-SOLAR units. The produced hydrogen will be injected into the natural gas network and will be sold for industrial uses. The total production of green hydrogen amounts to 60 tons per year.

Automated Production Line
The company outsources its production for 2021. The company wants to develop a production facility soon. Plant development is expected to start this summer. The capital expenditure for this plant is limited. The company has a planned CAPEX of $42 million for the production capacity between 2021-2025. There are a lot of risks to this facility in my opinion. If deadlines aren't achieved, there will be more need for more expensive outsourced production. The production line could be more expensive than planned. The automated production line is important to achieve a low hydrogen production cost.

Net Cash Position
Fusion Fuel has a net cash position of about $70M. This cash comes from HL Acquisitions and a PIPE investment of $25.1 million during the merger. 10,402,636 warrants are outstanding that can be converted into shares for a cash price of $11.5 per share. This could add another $119.6M to the cash position. It would also increase outstanding shares and cause dilution to current shareholders.
 
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