What universe are you living in? Unemployment rate is at 5%, and if you add in those people who have stopped looking for work or have been looking for more then 6 months, that figure is more like 9.2%. Read your own post, it makes great sense that the Fed is going to cut rates when the economy is producing more then china and india combined, and theres a total of 11 people unemployed in the entire united states. Also we have discovered martians and they are adding their gdp to great economy of the united states.
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Futures is up, is collapse over?
- Thread starter The Kin2
- Start date
What universe are you living in? Unemployment rate is at 5%, and if you add in those people who have stopped looking for work or have been looking for more then 6 months, that figure is more like 9.2%. Read your own post, it makes great sense that the Fed is going to cut rates when the economy is producing more then china and india combined, and theres a total of 11 people unemployed in the entire united states. Also we have discovered martians and they are adding their gdp to great economy of the united states.
Overnight futures movement means little. Let's see what happens after 9:30 EST.
Bottoms are usually marked by either (1) Wyckoff springs in which a breakout to new lows fails because of a lack of supply; or (2) a 1-2-3 bottom intraday (higher bottom, and then move above previous swing high. They often come between 11-1:30.
Yes, I'm staying put for lunch tomorrow (and Monday, and Tuesday, until the inevitable)
Bear market rallies are intense and tempting for the uninitiated, because they are so strong they can be mistaken for a long-term trend change. Panic buying begets more panic buying, merchandise gets marked up, smart money sells, and then the market crashes through support, because there really is nothing there.
Except hope.
Bottoms are usually marked by either (1) Wyckoff springs in which a breakout to new lows fails because of a lack of supply; or (2) a 1-2-3 bottom intraday (higher bottom, and then move above previous swing high. They often come between 11-1:30.
Yes, I'm staying put for lunch tomorrow (and Monday, and Tuesday, until the inevitable)
Bear market rallies are intense and tempting for the uninitiated, because they are so strong they can be mistaken for a long-term trend change. Panic buying begets more panic buying, merchandise gets marked up, smart money sells, and then the market crashes through support, because there really is nothing there.
Except hope.
Quote from smilingsynic:
Overnight futures movement means little. Let's see what happens after 9:30 EST.
Bottoms are usually marked by either (1) Wyckoff springs in which a breakout to new lows fails because of a lack of supply; or (2) a 1-2-3 bottom intraday (higher bottom, and then move above previous swing high. They often come between 11-1:30.
Yes, I'm staying put for lunch tomorrow (and Monday, and Tuesday, until the inevitable)
Bear market rallies are intense and tempting for the uninitiated, because they are so strong they can be mistaken for a long-term trend change. Panic buying begets more panic buying, merchandise gets marked up, smart money sells, and then the market crashes through support, because there really is nothing there.
Except hope.
Except that one day when the upside reversal doesn't come. All the panicking shorts have covered, but the sell off keeps accelerating. I pray on that day I pray on that day I'll be able to see straight enough to flush my long positions.
Good thoughts.
However, there have been years with a complete breakdown and 20%+ drop that weren't part of a multi-year bear market. 1987, 1990 and 1998 come to mind.
We'll see...
However, there have been years with a complete breakdown and 20%+ drop that weren't part of a multi-year bear market. 1987, 1990 and 1998 come to mind.
We'll see...
Quote from austinp:
On a short-term basis, the market is setting up for a monster rally event. If it ignites intraday, don't be surprised if they ramp +50pts ES (or more) in violent fashion. Late July 2002 was a 70ish point intraday ramp from low to high. We'll probably see at least one of those this year as big or bigger.
But, many of the coming rallies will be completely reversed the next session or two at most... especially a surprise rate-cut event. See Jan 2001 and April 2001 for the results each time.
Some rallies this year will stick for weeks, maybe longer. Expect everyone waiting with baited breath to proclaim a bottom is in, bear market is dead, etc.
We can also expect lower lows, grinding selloffs and overall sector deterioration. Stock markets have suffered a triple heart attack and paralyzing stroke here in the first two weeks of 2008. Anyone who thinks they'll be ready for spring-training wind sprints anytime soon is deluded, to be kind.
Welcome to the early stages of a true bear market. Make the necessary adjustments to what you saw today and sessions prior. We'll be served a steady diet of them.
Enjoy the bear-market rallies when they ignite. It is something to behold, while they last. Review your charts from April 2000 ~ Oct 2002 for a refresher course = road map of overall general behavior to come.
There is a multi-year bottom out there ahead, somewhere below today's session low. Probably much further below than most active traders = investors can possibly fathom.
Time will tell... it always does
I've heard sub-prime and related losses are much greater than the S&L/junk bond period in the late 80s. However, the GDP is certainly much larger now, as are the financial markets and global players. (In the late 80s, only Japan dared to step in and buy our junk, as far as I know.)
I'd be curious to see how current problems stack up to vs. '87-90 when you consider the growth of US GDP and the global financial infrastructure.
I'd be curious to see how current problems stack up to vs. '87-90 when you consider the growth of US GDP and the global financial infrastructure.
Quote from scriabinop23:
GDP in *real* terms is 25% higher than 8 yrs ago. In *nominal* terms, its some 50% higher or so. And remember, the stock market is nominally measured. There's HELL OF A LOT more value and earnings in the stock market now than before.
This is overdone ... S&P will be at 1800 in 2 years. And thats counting for the Credit default swap DEFAULT event of your lifetime. Money doesn't like stocks now nor houses. Soon it won't like bonds OR gold/oil (no value when yield curve inverts at these levels, and commodities are lousy in a recession). Where to go next? Stocks.
I say we test 1250 and be done with this... bottom out for about 3 months, then let the move up begin.
comments like yours look smart, but they mark bottoms roughly. (although I don't think we're near bottom... this event needs a little more time to absorb).