Here is another bear whining to the sky..
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Futures is up, is collapse over?
- Thread starter The Kin2
- Start date
Here is another bear whining to the sky..
Quote from smilingsynic:
Overnight futures movement means little. Let's see what happens after 9:30 EST.
Bottoms are usually marked by either (1) Wyckoff springs in which a breakout to new lows fails because of a lack of supply; or (2) a 1-2-3 bottom intraday (higher bottom, and then move above previous swing high. They often come between 11-1:30.
Yes, I'm staying put for lunch tomorrow (and Monday, and Tuesday, until the inevitable)
Bear market rallies are intense and tempting for the uninitiated, because they are so strong they can be mistaken for a long-term trend change. Panic buying begets more panic buying, merchandise gets marked up, smart money sells, and then the market crashes through support, because there really is nothing there.
Except hope.
IF the market crosses 1480 level would you still call it a BEAR MARKET ? At least that wasn't the case up until Dec 26, 2007.
With an election year unfolding before us do you think these politicos will let you rage and roil in a bear market and a recession and near total collapse ?
Come on get a grip on reality. Cover your shorts early, or you are a cooked goose in wonderland.
Quote from detective:
Relentless bidding of the futures in the overnight market. Looks like all the fund managers want to get long before they go to bed!
With no surprises from GE, I don't see anything preventing a monster rally tomorrow where we'll forget about reality for a day.
The futures are way too high tonight/ Right before the open if they stay same , we got a Monster rally and a short squeeze on hand. Bush package will trump another pole vault type into the market.
Hey Austinp,
I think you are right on! The number I heard for the Sp500 was about 850...seems unfathomable at this point, but then again I believed the market was going to crash back in September, and was surprised to see the SP around 1380.so soon!
I have not actively traded a bear market before, and am anticipating a sizeable reversal coming.
:eek:
I think you are right on! The number I heard for the Sp500 was about 850...seems unfathomable at this point, but then again I believed the market was going to crash back in September, and was surprised to see the SP around 1380.so soon!
I have not actively traded a bear market before, and am anticipating a sizeable reversal coming.
:eek:
anyone kept up to see the gap up/down ratio thus far this yr?
1.
be ready for an emergency rate cut anytime now.
Fed is way behind the curve. They know it and Bernanke wants to surprise the market.
2.
You have to take into account the devaluation of the US-Dollar. So US-Stocks are quite cheap now for foreign investors like me and today was the first day I started buying some US-Stocks since years. There is a lot of money from foreign investors and asian funds waiting to ram it into the US stock market out of US-Bonds. Compared to 5 years ago counted in Euro, the S&P is not at 1350 but at 900...
So I don't know if we have seen a bottom but I think its close.
Only the VIX needs to pop to some higher value to mark a true bottom.
be ready for an emergency rate cut anytime now.
Fed is way behind the curve. They know it and Bernanke wants to surprise the market.
2.
You have to take into account the devaluation of the US-Dollar. So US-Stocks are quite cheap now for foreign investors like me and today was the first day I started buying some US-Stocks since years. There is a lot of money from foreign investors and asian funds waiting to ram it into the US stock market out of US-Bonds. Compared to 5 years ago counted in Euro, the S&P is not at 1350 but at 900...
So I don't know if we have seen a bottom but I think its close.
Only the VIX needs to pop to some higher value to mark a true bottom.
<i>"Nothing will make you happy? Rate cuts, economic stimulus? At least consider our Government gives a damn! They are stepping in and steering you in the right direction. If you were in Sudan or Sri Lanka you would be eating with bullocks face down from earth.."</i>
Make me happy? What does that have to do with making markets go upward again?
Our government can goose a market when the macro trend is sideways or upward. No government on earth can reverse a bear market into bull.
What good will further rate-cuts do? Will that cure the banking meltdown? Nope, too late for that. Next earnings season = more huge cdo writedowns for the behemoths.
Will further rate-cuts free up liquidity for housing? Nope... the free money mortgage wheel has rusted to a halt. Housing prices will not recover soon, because the big banks are too broke for passing out free money any longer.
Will government stimulus packages turn markets around? I heard the proposal includes tax incentives and a $250 cash payment to taxpayers. Can I take a tax rebate to WalMart? Nope, it's already priced into my budget.
Will a whopping $250 send me on a shopping spree? Nope... ordering 100 gallons of fuel oil today for the wood/oil combination furnace here. At $3.49 per gallon retail, that eats up my government swag and stills rips another $100 from my wallet to boot. That $100 ain't going to WalMart, either. Not until they get into the fuel oil / natural gas business.
*
Legions of stock market players still active (for the moment) have no concept of a bear market. Why would they? The last one ended five years ago. This group, perhaps a majority of people only know that dips = great buying opportunities. Markets correct for a brief period, then vault to new highs soon after.
That's been the pattern since Oct 2002. There is another pattern to normal market action. The period from Apr 2000 thru Oct 2002 demonstrates that.
1998 was centered around a couple of specific circumstances that were readily cured. In the past two quarters, major banks have written down debt bigger than many fortune 500 companies. How many entire F500 companies are smaller in cap value than what was just written off this week?
The fiscal stimulus package, further rate cuts will be catalysts for bear market rallies. They will not turn the economy in a v-reversal or even a u-reversal from here. It's going to take some time for things to work their way thru the entire system, same as it took time for the excess to build. That manifested itself in an artificially inflated stock market. Now it's deflating in equal measure.
Make me happy? What does that have to do with making markets go upward again?
Our government can goose a market when the macro trend is sideways or upward. No government on earth can reverse a bear market into bull.
What good will further rate-cuts do? Will that cure the banking meltdown? Nope, too late for that. Next earnings season = more huge cdo writedowns for the behemoths.
Will further rate-cuts free up liquidity for housing? Nope... the free money mortgage wheel has rusted to a halt. Housing prices will not recover soon, because the big banks are too broke for passing out free money any longer.
Will government stimulus packages turn markets around? I heard the proposal includes tax incentives and a $250 cash payment to taxpayers. Can I take a tax rebate to WalMart? Nope, it's already priced into my budget.
Will a whopping $250 send me on a shopping spree? Nope... ordering 100 gallons of fuel oil today for the wood/oil combination furnace here. At $3.49 per gallon retail, that eats up my government swag and stills rips another $100 from my wallet to boot. That $100 ain't going to WalMart, either. Not until they get into the fuel oil / natural gas business.
*
Legions of stock market players still active (for the moment) have no concept of a bear market. Why would they? The last one ended five years ago. This group, perhaps a majority of people only know that dips = great buying opportunities. Markets correct for a brief period, then vault to new highs soon after.
That's been the pattern since Oct 2002. There is another pattern to normal market action. The period from Apr 2000 thru Oct 2002 demonstrates that.
1998 was centered around a couple of specific circumstances that were readily cured. In the past two quarters, major banks have written down debt bigger than many fortune 500 companies. How many entire F500 companies are smaller in cap value than what was just written off this week?
The fiscal stimulus package, further rate cuts will be catalysts for bear market rallies. They will not turn the economy in a v-reversal or even a u-reversal from here. It's going to take some time for things to work their way thru the entire system, same as it took time for the excess to build. That manifested itself in an artificially inflated stock market. Now it's deflating in equal measure.
<i>"Well said austin sounds like a man who have ben around the block a couple times."</i>
Everything written here and elsewhere in the media looks like it was copy/paste from 2000 ~ 2001. I don't mean a slight resemblence... it is practically verbatim. I watched literally 1,000s of raging bull traders lose everything and wash away while trying to catch a shallow bottom they expected to find. Bear market periods are part of the normal cycle. Trying to thwart them just because it's an election year, etc simply does not work.
Everything written here and elsewhere in the media looks like it was copy/paste from 2000 ~ 2001. I don't mean a slight resemblence... it is practically verbatim. I watched literally 1,000s of raging bull traders lose everything and wash away while trying to catch a shallow bottom they expected to find. Bear market periods are part of the normal cycle. Trying to thwart them just because it's an election year, etc simply does not work.