From 1k to 500k (Deadline: 2017)

userque said:
By 'daily basis,' I refer to whether the next trading day will close up, or down. (as opposed to the next week/month/etc.)

Yes, I'm aware of the law of averages, that's why I referred to the data being historical. :)
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We were talking about trades.
But yeah, I don't know what the next day will be.
That's why I don't make my shopping at the end of day.
But if you take a look at the S&P it's more 51/49 which is a HUGE difference.
 
K-Pia said:
Thought about TopStep but that's my plan B.
Don't have confidence in them. It's my wost case scenario.
Nice to hear that you're a profitable trader that fulfills his goals !

Margin is 400$. SL is 1point max. TP is dynamic but expect 8points.
Thanks bro', I'll definitively need luck.
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You'll be fine. There's always something to exploit in any game so you'll be fine with enough practice. I'm still an amateur lol I haven't yet proved myself with real $ but I'll probably start soon this year
 
K-Pia said:
...But if you take a look at the S&P it's more 51/49 which is a HUGE difference.
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HUGE? o_O You don't think 51/49 is real-world acceptable as being theoretically 50/50? How many rows/days of data are you looking at. I can run a quick simulation.

How close would you guess real world coin tosses would fair? 50/50, 49/51, other?

Have you seen lottery number distributions?

50/50 doesn't actually mean: always 50/50. There is variance. Coin tosses won't always be HTHTHTHTHT...HTHTHTHT exactly 50/50 no matter when you stop tossing (and you'd have to stop on an even number).
 
userque said:
HUGE? o_O You don't think 51/49 is real-world acceptable as being theoretically 50/50? How many rows/days of data are you looking at. I can run a quick simulation.

How close would you guess real world coin tosses would fair? 50/50, 49/51, other?

Have you seen lottery number distributions?

50/50 doesn't actually mean: always 50/50. There is variance. Coin tosses won't always be HTHTHTHTHT...HTHTHTHT exactly 50/50 no matter when you stop tossing (and you'd have to stop on an even number).
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HUGE. Casinos build their fortune on less than 49/51.
 
userque said:
Ok.
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Ok ? Ok ...
However that's two completely different world.
And I am myself not as rich as casinos are.
One need deep pockets. As you say,
It's fairly close to 50/50 ...

Fluctuations are wide in the market,
They aren't as wild for the casinos.

If one wants to buy and hold,
For decades and decades,
51/49 is an edge ...

Brownian motion
Vs
Stochastich Brownian motion ...

But yeah, I don't buy and hold.
A speculator looks for better odds.
Or at least, a great dynamic expectancy.
 
K-Pia said:
Ok ? Ok ... However that's two completely different world. And I am myself not as rich as casinos are. One need deep pockets. As you say, It's fairly close to 50/50 ... Fluctuations are wide in the market, They aren't as wild for the casinos. If one wants to buy and hold, For decades and decades, 51/49 is an edge ... Brownian motion Vs Stochastich Brownian motion ... But yeah, I don't buy and hold. A speculator looks for better odds. Or at least, a great dynamic expectancy.
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Well, my original response was, and still is, regarding your notion that 51/49 in historical data is not, for all meaningful purposes: 50/50.

Unfortunately, I have no debate regarding how good the edge is, or whether such an edge can be successful. :)
 
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I began today.
With 550$ but fall to 350$.
Haha. So I'll have to wire $ to continue.
It'll be done next week.

Traded after a sleepless night.
Made mistakes. I especially faded that move.
During the overnight on the ES. That won't stop me.
 

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K-Pia said:
I began today.
With 550$ but fall to 350$.
Haha. So I'll have to wire $ to continue.
It'll be done next week.

Traded after a sleepless night.
Made mistakes. I especially faded that move.
During the overnight on the ES. That won't stop me.
More...

You didn't stick to your plan of starting next week. That must be why you're down. Either way, you've almost cut your capital in half with one days trading. Off to a bad start
 
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