From 1k to 500k (Deadline: 2017)

Handle123 said:
I have found in my back testing that you have a max DD which for me be like three losing days max in a row for day trading and that comes up once every three years and in between I have mini DD's of one losing day of Max, so if I was to implement a new signal even though I would have backtested the crap out of it, I would wait till I had losing day and next day start using it.

Now through the years I have bought many systems from venders, I have found six that do fairly well except they will have up to 50% drawdown before making new equity highs, so again, did much backtesting, they programmed and waits for 80% drawdown of the "mean" before it can take signals and continues till 80% of the "mean" of equity curve going up, so the overall drawdowns are acceptable. Besides I came up with idea after drinking much wine, this works for me, but it was difficult to start in beginning cause it goes against what seems logical. We all want to get on board a trend as it feels good to do so, but markets not logical-they move without any news "just because", and I have overcome emotions and most trades look like they make no sense....

Any trade is 50/50.
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It's true that often markets move for no apparent reason. Even without any volume ! But they move. And we search for an explanation EX POST and we find a rational, a pattern, most of the time spurious.

It's good to drink wine =P Especially Red one. My favorite "alcohol". And we could talk days and nights about the insufficient reason of trades outcomes. Is it a fundamental uncertainty ? Or an Epistemological one ? Look at your backtest , it's an epistemological uncertainty. Your trades aren't splitted this way around loosers and winners (50/50). If we can describe and anticipate or even recognize conditions that are favorable with our signals. Then we can increase the fitness, accuracy, of our system, trades. IMO.

Ok. But I wasn't talking of denaturalization of the strategy by adding, removing signals. It's just that I'll be less sensitive to signals. Like if there are louder ones than other. I'll take into account only strong signals.
 
K-Pia said:
A fair coin is 1/2. A fair dice is 1/6.
But there's no fairness for a trade to be 50/50.
If it were so just set the risk reward to 1:2.
But it'll affect the whole phenomenon.
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They may be referring to historical data that evidences that the chances are (on a daily basis) essentially 50/50.
 
userque said:
They may be referring to historical data that evidences that the chances are (on a daily basis) essentially 50/50.
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Maybe. But it isn't a robust analysis.
95% of traders fail so I could say it's more about 95/5.
On a daily basis ? You could have said in the long run,
It would have been more probable than in the short term.
Aka The law of averages
 
K-Pia said:
A fair coin is 1/2. A fair dice is 1/6.
But there's no fairness for a trade to be 50/50.
If it were so just set the risk reward to 1:2.
But it'll affect the whole phenomenon.
More...

Without money management or skills, any trade is just 50/50, where you start to develop an edge is knowledge. Most losing traders take 1.5 trades each day that were losers that they might have not taken based on better skills and often times are reason of having winning and losing day. Avoiding 1.5 trades a day for you, would this make huge difference? If not, shows you already have many skills.
 
don't mean to be nosy but...if you're confident in yourself but have a lack of money, why don't you try topsteptrader? by the way, I think what you're doing is completely possible depending on how you trade. I'm actually doing something very similar(starting with a little over 1k but my goal is just to be profitable everyday)
 
If your margin is $500 and you have a stop of 8 ticks, with a target of 4ticks, basically you'd have to be 3-1 to make money. If you go 0-5(which is awful) you've basically blown your account. If you trade conservative and take low risk entries- you should be fine. Good luck
 
Handle123 said:
Without money management or skills, any trade is just 50/50, where you start to develop an edge is knowledge. Most losing traders take 1.5 trades each day that were losers that they might have not taken based on better skills and often times are reason of having winning and losing day. Avoiding 1.5 trades a day for you, would this make huge difference? If not, shows you already have many skills.
More...

I agree that with no clues and in principle it's 50/50.
Knowledge is information which is the difference between two state of uncertainty.
But without knowledge about a variable we set the outcome to 1/N (N=Number Outcome).
I thought I was talking with knowledgeable traders. That's why I've been surprised =P
Don't really get your second point... But I'd better be avoiding the loosing trades.
By loosing trades I don't mean break even or whatever outcome from 0 to +00.
 
K-Pia said:
On a daily basis ? You could have said in the long run,
It would have been more probable than in the short term.
Aka The law of averages
More...

By 'daily basis,' I refer to whether the next trading day will close up, or down. (as opposed to the next week/month/etc.)

Yes, I'm aware of the law of averages, that's why I referred to the data being historical. :)
 
Crashed said:
don't mean to be nosy but...if you're confident in yourself but have a lack of money, why don't you try topsteptrader? by the way, I think what you're doing is completely possible depending on how you trade. I'm actually doing something very similar(starting with a little over 1k but my goal is just to be profitable everyday)

If your margin is $500 and you have a stop of 8 ticks, with a target of 4ticks, basically you'd have to be 3-1 to make money. If you go 0-5(which is awful) you've basically blown your account. If you trade conservative and take low risk entries- you should be fine. Good luck
More...

Thought about TopStep but that's my plan B.
Don't have confidence in them. It's my wost case scenario.
Nice to hear that you're a profitable trader that fulfills his goals !

Margin is 400$. SL is 1point max. TP is dynamic but expect 8points.
Thanks bro', I'll definitively need luck.
 
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