From 1k to 500k (Deadline: 2017)

[K-Pia]

Going to start in April.

I'll post my reports as well as my fundseeder link.
Reports display some metrics as well as some graphics.
Almost all metrics and graphs are derived from points not dollars.
The graphics show the return's distribution, accumulation and simulation.
The last one is the cumulative daily P&L in dollars plotted against my expectations.

I expect an average of 2 points per day. I'll risk 2% of my account value per trade.
Hopefully I won't trade every day but I'll first day trade ES because of margins.
My biggest mistake is to over trade. While the market ain't moving ...
I should be sitting tight 80% of the time. Trade only "volatility".
My tools are a Deep Of Market, a daily chart and Vol Delta.

 

[d08]

Why so modest? why not go for 5 million? I give this thread a week or two until it dies.

 

[oly]

Are you considering entering the world cup of futures? I think Larry Williams still holds the record for % return and you'd beat it handily if you succeed.

Under "Daily Report Outcomes" what are the first 5 numbers? I ask because they average to 0.9 which is listed as the "mean". How many past trades/days are you extrapolating performance from - hopefully more than 5?

 

[K-Pia]

Why so modest? why not go for 5 million? I give this thread a week or two until it dies.

Well, I won't start until April...
So you should revise your guess.
Say.... 4 weeks from now ? Let's see.
I'll make 500K to 5x10^6 after this one.
=P

Are you considering entering the world cup of futures? I think Larry Williams still holds the record for % return and you'd beat it handily if you succeed.

Under "Daily Report Outcomes" what are the first 5 numbers? I ask because they average to 0.9 which is listed as the "mean". How many past trades/days are you extrapolating performance from - hopefully more than 5?

I don't want to beat anyone. Only to tend towards my expectations.
Daily report is an End of Day analysis. 5 trades underly the metrics.

The "Monte Carlo" aka extrapolation (?) is based on 105 trades.
Which is the number of trades in the aggregate analysis / report.

There are two I/O which is daily and total (or aggregate).
Sure it's a small sample. But it will grow over time.

But I'll start from scratch for my live trading.

 

[Handle123]

Going to start in April.

I'll post my reports as well as my fundseeder link.
Reports display some metrics as well as some graphics.
Almost all metrics and graphs are derived from points not dollars.
The graphics show the return's distribution, accumulation and simulation.
The last one is the cumulative daily P&L in dollars plotted against my expectations.

I expect an average of 2 points per day. I'll risk 2% of my account value per trade.
Hopefully I won't trade every day but I'll first day trade ES because of margins.
My biggest mistake is to over trade. While the market ain't moving ...
I should be sitting tight 80% of the time. Trade only "volatility".
My tools are a Deep Of Market, a daily chart and Vol Delta.

So on a $1,000 account trading the ES, you can only risk one tick which is slightly below 2%, the spread alone will trip protective stops.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

 

[K-Pia]

So on a $1,000 account trading the ES, you can only risk one tick which is slightly below 2%, the spread alone will trip protective stops.

You're right. Didn't want to bother you with those technicalities.
My ideal is 2% risk per trade. But at the beginning I'll risk 5% to 10%.
Which is hell ! Won't be able to lose more than 10 times in a raw.
I may last 1 or 2 weeks only as d08 rightly pointed out.
He's generous. It makes my P(Survival) really low.
But I still feel I can do it. If I don't. I'd have tried.

 

[Handle123]

Wait for a breakout, then place limit lower so you only risking one point, cuts back on over trading and slippage as that would expand risk even more.

I did a contest once with a buddy with $1,000 account, each had a grand, he blew out in first day from the stress as he was good trader, but he was thinking more on the amount and tried to cherry pick trades and not way to go. You tried to take every trade but force the market to retrace so you can get in cheaper and use 3 bar rule that have to either change target or protective stops to plus one tick at end of three bars, best trades happen quickly. I stayed all five days and did like 8 trades and came out couple hundred ahead, have to be very patient.

 

[K-Pia]

Wait for a breakout, then place limit lower so you only risking one point, cuts back on over trading and slippage as that would expand risk even more.

I did a contest once with a buddy with $1,000 account, each had a grand, he blew out in first day from the stress as he was good trader, but he was thinking more on the amount and tried to cherry pick trades and not way to go. You tried to take every trade but force the market to retrace so you can get in cheaper and use 3 bar rule that have to either change target or protective stops to plus one tick at end of three bars, best trades happen quickly. I stayed all five days and did like 8 trades and came out couple hundred ahead, have to be very patient.

Thanks for your support.
I'll set for each trade a 1 point SL.
Since that's how I am used to trade.
I don't expect any slippage at first (ES).
Over trading is definitely one of my weakness.
But I am working on it and I won't trade if fearful.
My P&L is in point, not currency amount, it helps too.
It's definitely better to miss a good trade than the reverse.

I'll focus on the downside. Protective thinking.
Strong filtering to avoid over trading and limit costs.
My other weakness is a tendency for fading ...
Got to get rid and go with the damn flow.
If and only if I expect a strong move.

Thanks for your wisdom.
I'll dive deeply into it.
Especially failures.
=P

PS: The reports (based on points) are commission adjusted.
I simply substract 0.1 per outcome which represents 5$.

 

[Handle123]

Thanks for your support.
I'll set for each trade a 1 point SL.
Since that's how I am used to trade.
I don't expect any slippage at first (ES).
Over trading is definitely one of my weakness.
But I am working on it and I won't trade if fearful.
My P&L is in point, not currency amount, it helps too.
It's definitely better to miss a good trade than the reverse.

I'll focus on the downside. Protective thinking.
Strong filtering to avoid over trading and limit costs.
My other weakness is a tendency for fading ...
Got to get rid and go with the damn flow.
If and only if I expect a strong move.

Thanks for your wisdom.
I'll dive deeply into it.
Especially failures.
=P

PS: The reports (based on points) are commission adjusted.
I simply substract 0.1 per outcome which represents 5$.

It is best to always go for plus one tick for breakeven stops, so like 3 bars goes by and you up two ticks, move protective stop to plus one or if at a loss after three minutes, change target from 2-3 points to plus one tick, you be surprised how many times those plus one ticks adds up, let someone else pay the fees and you still make 8 bucks. There been a few days a year where all I make is 10-20 one tick trades, since I lease a seat, I am making more than retail, but regardless, ending up with 20 ticks, nearly five points not that shabby, most folks give their right arm to make that. Have a Goal in mind like 6 points and quit for the day then sim trade rest of the day, that is what I am doing now, get 6-7 points and walk away, and regardless, am done in 60 minutes.

Learning to fade takes a good three years to get decent at it, more things you have to master as far as reading charts, if anything look to fade in direction of trend.