Fishy Poker

[Chris Mac]

HS, WHAT A DAY!!!!
Amazing volatility, my out of the money put multiplied by 2.5 in less than 48 hours !!!
I took my profit, I don't want to lose with a new new new new bear market rebound.
I hope you made a lot too ! But as usual : don't be too greedy. Cut at least half, take some profits! We never know what could be tomorrow, and markets are never straight.

CM

 

[heavenskrow]

HS, WHAT A DAY!!!!
Amazing volatility, my out of the money put multiplied by 2.5 in less than 48 hours !!!
I took my profit, I don't want to lose with a new new new new bear market rebound.
I hope you made a lot too ! But as usual : don't be too greedy. Cut at least half, take some profits! We never know what could be tomorrow, and markets are never straight.

CM

Hey CM, good job being persistent with your belief! Having another trader with his own views agreeing with my analysis gave me a little more confidence in putting the trade on and sticking with it, despite the picture the market painted of everything being fine and going higher.

The tape on Tuesday was very bearish. Even at solid support levels, it kept making lower highs. But not gonna lie, on Monday I was starting to doubt myself.

I also took half off my positions in the morning since I don't want to be greedy. Letting the rest run.

One thing I don't like in our bear case is the gap left from yesterday to today's open. It might not be that significant but in my wildest imagination a gap fill to attempt to make another high(that could end up being a lower high) on majors is definitely a possibility.

Anyways thanks for being moral support and great job man on your puts!

P.S. I don't journal every trade on this thread. Sometimes I will be on chat and call the low like 2.11 on the tick. Or for example today in the morning I told chat I covered 3/5 of my vxx calls 1 hour near open.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

The dumb money leads out betting out of position with marginal holdings--many times with an all in bet. The smart money plays in position with premium hands and makes bets related to the size of the pot and the strength of their hand.

 

[Chris Mac]

One thing I don't like in our bear case is the gap left from yesterday to today's open. It might not be that significant but in my wildest imagination a gap fill to attempt to make another high(that could end up being a lower high) on majors is definitely a possibility.

I agree. Bear markets take time to develop, because of the natural bullish bias of the participants. That is why it is safer to take profits regularly, in order to short higher and/or buy puts at a better price. There were only 7 weeks since the start of the year! Road will be long in 2016 before we reach the lows. Good trades HS!

CM

 

[heavenskrow]

One thing I don't like in our bear case is the gap left from yesterday to today's open. It might not be that significant but in my wildest imagination a gap fill to attempt to make another high(that could end up being a lower high) on majors is definitely a possibility.

Well the wildest imagination did end up happening LOL. Absolutely INSANE.(The market always does what you least expect right?) I created a thread in the past on this which can be found here: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/how-to-reverse-your-bias-in-market-direction.293537/
Keep in mind that was a few weeks before the August 24th dip.

Thought I was doing well covering 3/5 of my shorts a hour into the open, nope not good enough.....I guess lol. The 2/5 of my shorts ended up going negative. Not only do you have to cover, you have to reverse your original trade, tough.

Anyways here is a channel chart brought to my attention by der_kommissar.
I dunno Chris, I might have to take a long hard look at the market today. Gonna try to look at it with open eyes. Shorted some Deutsche Bank in the close, but you have to give it to the bulls. Otherwise it is a channel to 17000 on YM......

 

[Chris Mac]

Shorted some Deutsche Bank in the close

HS, I think the timing was not appropriate.
Anyway, get out if DB should go above 15.3.
I draw a graph to share my view. This is just an opinion.

We are currently at 14.9 EUR, close yesterday was at 14.65.
Stock is already down 70% since 2014, so you know there could be short covering at any time.
Yesterday, DB made a 50% retracement of the first rebound: this means it could be a buy for people waiting for this kind of retracement.
During the rebound, DB was up +1.15 EUR, so probabilities are high for a repetition of this movement. It means DB's price above 18. Notice Moving Average 50 days (pink) is at 18.10 , so pretty close.
At last but not at least, notice in the white cercle how volumes were low during the last two days, a sign that bears were not that strong.
So I would rather wait to see if DB goes in the Sell Zone 18/20.50, and short it if this is toppish.
If you want to make big money in this game, be a sniper : good target, good timing, good precision.

Good trades

CM

 

[Chris Mac]

HS, again be ready for a new correction. We are really close.
S&P is currently @1988.
We should expect a correction of at least 50 points, maybe 100 points straight.
Puts are really inexpensive, do not hesitate to add more to your portfolio.
The main indicator for the coming days should be EURUSD.
Above : 1.1050. Risk off rising
Above 1.11, some panic
Above 1.12, downtrend acceleration.

Be focus. Again, take profits fast if S&P pauses at a round number : 1950 or 1900 ?
Wait and see.
Good trades.

CM

 

[Chris Mac]

By the way, you noticed that DB quoted 18.085 today. We are in the "SELL ZONE".
IMO, good price to make some shorts.

CM

 

[heavenskrow]

HS, again be ready for a new correction. We are really close.
S&P is currently @1988.
We should expect a correction of at least 50 points, maybe 100 points straight.
Puts are really inexpensive, do not hesitate to add more to your portfolio.
The main indicator for the coming days should be EURUSD.
Above : 1.1050. Risk off rising
Above 1.11, some panic
Above 1.12, downtrend acceleration.

Be focus. Again, take profits fast if S&P pauses at a round number : 1950 or 1900 ?
Wait and see.
Good trades.

CM

Hey CM, how are you. I've been starting to doubt myself lately. But I do agree with your post. I think it will be a good area to at least take a jab on the short side.

I've been short NQ through QQQ puts since Tuesday of this week but did not have the power to hang on as TF kept making new highs as well as the financials. I've been getting in and out of my puts since I am constantly self doubting the position as not everything is aligning how I normally like it to be.

The VXH6 is on the last brink of support(while vxx hits 200dayma) and seems to be holding for now but this market can do anything. But then again the best time to short is when bears are self-doubting right?

I also shorted DB again yesterday, but so far keeps pushing higher.....makes me doubt myself you know?

Intermarket Analysis has been signaling to buy Gold over Bonds now. It could be the new safe haven for this correction to help indicate "smart money." allocation.

On the other hand my long positions are still rising ridiculously. And although overextended.... none of the long positions have reached my selling area yet.EX: KOL, LOCO, CMG.
The financial stocks that I've been short have blown through my resistance areas like it was nothing.

Last key thing to note was that the NQ never made a lower high. Maybe we just need to wait for that before shorting agaiin?

 

[Chris Mac]

On the other hand my long positions are still rising ridiculously. And although overextended.... none of the long positions have reached my selling area yet.EX: KOL, LOCO, CMG.

What a good picking !!! Congrats. How did you screen name like Market Vectors Coal ?! Seems to be a small ETF. But good idea anyway.
Concerning NQH6, we got a false high @4352.75. ST support is still yesterday's low @4293.50. I would wait that resistance @4352.75 holds (or close @4355/4360). And if support breaks, bingo. Go for it.
But as you know, this is not an easy game. These last days were made to disgust weak hands to short this rally. It could last a bit.
Should this rally stop (today ? Monday? Tuesday?), I think there is at least 3 / 4% downside to come. And because we are in a bear market, 3 / 4 % becomes rapidly 7 / 8%.
Wait and see.

CM