Fishy Poker

Morning level today is a good short level imo.
Nikkei and USD/JPY have all hit resistance levels, and Nikkei has filled the gaps it left near its highs. However there are still gaps left below for the Nikkei. This is all at the same time VIX is on support while 30yr Bonds have hit an important support area all while the US majors are at key resistance levels.
Nasdaq's tape remains strong however and that is the one strong case in favor of the bulls.

IF I don't attempt a jab on a short here and believe in probabilities I am not playing the game right.
 
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heavenskrow said:
Made a nice profit on my shorts, however now I am getting bullish on the indexes.
Bonds broke a key support level.
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Hello HS, long time.
Funny because at the same time, I am getting bearish on indexes !
Look at your favorites : Biotech and Russell 2000.
They seem a bit weak. Usually they are leaders for corrections (and rebounds).
Moreover, we can face a double correction in bonds & equities. It happened, it happens, it will happen.
Wait & See.

CM
 
Chris Mac said:
Hello HS, long time.
Funny because at the same time, I am getting bearish on indexes !
Look at your favorites : Biotech and Russell 2000.
They seem a bit weak. Usually they are leaders for corrections (and rebounds).
Moreover, we can face a double correction in bonds & equities. It happened, it happens, it will happen.
Wait & See.

CM
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Hey! Hope you've been well
Right if I were to chart a long term 30yr bond chart, we are really up there in terms of resistance, hence the weakness in ZB lately. Maybe I'll upload a picture later.

Right now there are few cases I don't like in terms of the bear picture. The USD/JPY's rally while Nikkei is still under resistance. So this is +1 bear +1 bull for me. Or say neutral. But usually in feeling comfortable with bear side I prefer the yen rallying vs weakening.

VIX has been really weak as of late. I expected VIX to react stronger but that's my own downfall I guess. Although VIX future has an interesting looking chart.

I haven't charted all the biotech stocks like I used to when I was shorting it near the peak in 2015. I'll see how IBB reacts to the 280-282 level as thats a key support level to look at.

You are right in that double correction has happened before and can happen again. One thing I can be honest with is, my edge will be slightly hindered if it does in terms of analysis.

Anyways, right now I am still in poker status. I take jabs here and there like I did yesterday with shorts. Basically waiting for capitulation of one side before joining the other side.
I just feel like the bulls have a stronger edge even at these levels. Call me crazy but I can see ndx hitting 5200-6200.

We should have a clearer picture hopefully by the end of this week. As many indicies around the world have been in chop on the daily. I currently do not have any positions, waiting for clear direction for a good swing trade.
 
Markets had a strong move down today based on VX futures hitting double support yesterday. However I expect one more rally(possibly lower high) before we go lower or higher. Nikkei on the other hand I feel could be setting a lower high if the markets are going lower from here, ZB on the other hand I believe still has further down to go.

Still neutral. Need clear direction.

KM4VWRg.png
 
I got the lower high I was looking for. Nikkei has now filled pretty much all of its gaps left over on the upside and now there are gaps lower, hence I am now bearish.
Meanwhile American indexes remain at the open of the 18th key resistance levels.
 
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