This is simply a log of market psychology coming from a "novice amateur" in which I believe the smart money takes full advantage of.
I can't fully explain it, but I believe a certain aspect of trading is related to the smart money bluffing the dumb money. This is noted in accumulation/distribution phases.
So before the big market meltdown of last year, Greece/Asian yuan news overnight, I was positioned to the short side. However it was extremely frustrating to be short as the day session would result with making a higher low intraday, or huge rips higher.
Even on a neckline support the YM would test it almost 8 times and hold. So this would result in me covering, which then would lead to an overnight break of support based on "news."
When the market was retesting neckline support after the break of August 24th, it would result in chop during day session, then with a huge move down overnight. Then the day after that also resulted in chop which led to a huge move overnight.
However that is the past and this log is for the present.
For the past few sessions after the Santa Claus Rally of 2015, the move down was orderly in a sense. The market loved to do huge rips higher near the close to force weak handed bears to cover such as I, and then sell it off overnight. Essentially the market wanted to go lower but in order to do so, it needs to fool the public into buying/covering.
Now as of 1/20 and 1/21, major indexes have hit key levels and surprisingly held these levels. January 21st's session was the first chop we've seen in a while and what was interesting was that for the first time in a long time, the market just tested resistance, pulled back, and ended with "moderate" selling into the close. It was enough of a resistance test to have weak bulls take profits and have bears remain in their short positions.
Technically speaking, I believe a lot of stocks,indexes are severely oversold and there is a significant probability of a reversion to the mean. However intermarket analysis, and other targets in bank stocks are telling me to remain short.
I can't fully explain it, but I believe a certain aspect of trading is related to the smart money bluffing the dumb money. This is noted in accumulation/distribution phases.
So before the big market meltdown of last year, Greece/Asian yuan news overnight, I was positioned to the short side. However it was extremely frustrating to be short as the day session would result with making a higher low intraday, or huge rips higher.
Even on a neckline support the YM would test it almost 8 times and hold. So this would result in me covering, which then would lead to an overnight break of support based on "news."
When the market was retesting neckline support after the break of August 24th, it would result in chop during day session, then with a huge move down overnight. Then the day after that also resulted in chop which led to a huge move overnight.
However that is the past and this log is for the present.
For the past few sessions after the Santa Claus Rally of 2015, the move down was orderly in a sense. The market loved to do huge rips higher near the close to force weak handed bears to cover such as I, and then sell it off overnight. Essentially the market wanted to go lower but in order to do so, it needs to fool the public into buying/covering.
Now as of 1/20 and 1/21, major indexes have hit key levels and surprisingly held these levels. January 21st's session was the first chop we've seen in a while and what was interesting was that for the first time in a long time, the market just tested resistance, pulled back, and ended with "moderate" selling into the close. It was enough of a resistance test to have weak bulls take profits and have bears remain in their short positions.
Technically speaking, I believe a lot of stocks,indexes are severely oversold and there is a significant probability of a reversion to the mean. However intermarket analysis, and other targets in bank stocks are telling me to remain short.
Last edited:
...like a complex painting, kind of.
