partly it wasn't by design.
partly it is to ensure I get enough pnl volatility with the fewest number of contracts and shares
partly to express a view that skew is cheap.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
EXAS April options mis-priced
- Thread starter vanv0029
- Start date
partly it wasn't by design.
partly it is to ensure I get enough pnl volatility with the fewest number of contracts and shares
partly to express a view that skew is cheap.
Quote from atticus:
Collared the preexisting shares?
I added more shares as well.
So this is my net position. I've seen this story before. I believe the trial will work, but the upside is limited. The Downside however is pretty bad.
It's not impossible the stock will selloff after a successful result (as fast money dumps in search of another catalyst stock to own).
There's a lot of optimism here. Even Cramer is touting the shares.
No doubt, it'll overshoot hypothetical FV. Pump and dump? And I'm not talking about the colon.
Worked some stuff Wed-Fri. Not much action in the options, at least not for me. Should see liquidity post event, if only briefly.
UL seems to be the way to go, with conviction.
Ended with a small syn. straddle, not by design. And a partial fill to boot. Long 12Cs @ .35 Bullish straddle. Have to consider vol crush as well when hedging.
Got the other side of the collar, a little, sort of.
Trading gets so boring. First non-oil trade in a while.
Timing. Any day now, right?
Worked some stuff Wed-Fri. Not much action in the options, at least not for me. Should see liquidity post event, if only briefly.
UL seems to be the way to go, with conviction.
Ended with a small syn. straddle, not by design. And a partial fill to boot. Long 12Cs @ .35 Bullish straddle. Have to consider vol crush as well when hedging.
Got the other side of the collar, a little, sort of.
Trading gets so boring. First non-oil trade in a while.
Timing. Any day now, right?
Quote from FrankSlaughtery:
i was NOT commenting on a company or technology.
i agree i don't know anything about the company or the technology.
i was just trying to help others traders realize that not everything drug will approval at each step and that they should hedge/position size accordingly.
so unless you went to harvard medical school you can't comment on a trade? this is elite trader not elite doctor.
There is no Phase 1, Phase 2, or Phase 3 clinical trials.
The Company is NOT developing a drug.
Duh.
Quote from newwurldmn:
I added more shares as well.
So this is my net position. I've seen this story before. I believe the trial will work, but the upside is limited. The Downside however is pretty bad.
It's not impossible the stock will selloff after a successful result (as fast money dumps in search of another catalyst stock to own).
There's a lot of optimism here. Even Cramer is touting the shares.
I just got done writing 5 talking points about why all of the "above" is wrong, but decided to delete it because it's probably a waste of time educating people that claim that there's a lot of optimism given the current $680 million valuation, let alone mentioning a guy (Cramer) that the institutional crowd couldn't give a rat's ass about.
If you think that "fast" money is in this name.... or that the upside is "limited" given the multi-BILLION dollar market place that Cologuard is about to penetrate . . .
Think again.
Glad I read it. Thanks. This is an interesting and complex situation and no doubt most of us aren't well versed in it.
More dd needed, but may consider for the IRA and your post event comments were well noted.
Just trying to make a little vol play here. Didn't even know the Co. existed until the OP.
More dd needed, but may consider for the IRA and your post event comments were well noted.
Just trying to make a little vol play here. Didn't even know the Co. existed until the OP.
Quote from newwurldmn:
I added more shares as well.
So this is my net position. I've seen this story before. I believe the trial will work, but the upside is limited. The Downside however is pretty bad.
It's not impossible the stock will selloff after a successful result (as fast money dumps in search of another catalyst stock to own).
There's a lot of optimism here. Even Cramer is touting the shares.
PS. As to your "fast money" argument, you might want to go back to August of last year and take a look at how the stock "responded" to a 6.3 million share secondary offering at $9.75
Do you have any idea how many multi-billion dollar fund managers (who don't own a single share of stock) are waiting for this data to come out?
Ahhhh F-it.
Forget about it.
The lack of DD here is mind-boggling.
Quote from donnap:
Glad I read it. Thanks. This is an interesting and complex situation and no doubt most of us aren't well versed in it.
More dd needed, but may consider for the IRA and your post event comments were well noted.
Just making a little vol play here. Didn't even know the Co. existed until the OP.
Do yourself a favor and spend 20-30 minutes listening to the last quarterly conference call from Feb. 20th.
You can find the audio portion link here:
http://investor.exactsciences.com/events.cfm
Quote from newwurldmn:
i'm done positioning my trade:
33% long may 12 buywrite (cost basis 9.5)
66% long common with may 9 - 12 collar (cost basis 11)
Good call on the collar, was looking at exactly that with those strikes.
Some of us peons are interested in what your points are, drop the holier than thou attitude next post around. We would just like to know the thesis.Quote from Landis82:
I just got done writing 5 talking points about why all of the "above" is wrong, but decided to delete it because it's probably a waste of time educating people that claim that there's a lot of optimism given the current $680 million valuation, let alone mentioning a guy (Cramer) that the institutional crowd couldn't give a rat's ass about.