EXAS April options mis-priced

atticus · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from Landis82:

This is nothing to be concerned about for two reasons:

1.) The FDA is not requiring any threshold to be achieved for pre-cancer sensitivity.

2.) The 57% sensitivity for pre-cancers is right around what the sensitivity is for the pap smear. But because of the "programmability" of women going for annual pap-smear tests, the 57% sensitivity rises exponentially and cervical cancer winds up being the only cancer to be eradicated thus far. The same will be true for Cologuard and pre-cancers.

Excellent, thanks.

Landis82 · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from atticus:

The stock is a call. Just buy the shares.

Bingo!

Landis82 · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from atticus:

Excellent, thanks.

No problem.
And the Company will also leverage Cologuard to apply to the 1.4 million Crohn's Disease sufferers (inflammatory bowel disease) in which the colons are so inflamed that an optical colonoscopy by a GI doc is just not realistic.

These poor souls have to undergo random biopsies (20-30) annually of their colon, as the standard of care.

Cologuard will be perfect for these 1.4 million people.
And anyone else (for that matter) that do not wish to have to take a full day off work and undergo anesthesia for a colonoscopy, not too mention spending the night before sitting on the can for 2 hours straight drinking that horrible bowel cleansing solution.

Landis82 · Apr 11, 2013

And their partner (Mayo Clinic) is already at work on identifying methylation bio-markers in stool for Pancreatic Cancer. And as we all know, coming across PanC is usually done late in the "game" and winds up being a Death Sentence.

cdcaveman · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from Landis82:

And their partner (Mayo Clinic) is already at work on identifying methylation bio-markers in stool for Pancreatic Cancer. And as we all know, coming across PanC is usually done late in the "game" and winds up being a Death Sentence.

yes.. best friends father.. dead last year in like 2 months after diagnosis pancreatic!

jimmyjazz · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from atticus:

The stock is a call. Just buy the shares.

Can you elaborate? I see there isn't much change in theta from May to October, but I can still purchase near-unity delta at a discount with say a $6 OCT13 long call. I give up a bit of breakeven, but if it really pops . . . ???

donnap · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from cdcaveman:

sometimes no matter how high the premium is priced, it can be cheap.. i was thinking of taking a long shot with otm calls..

Yeah, I traded these about 9 years ago. That often seemed to be the case in hindsight. The market had a hard time pricing vol high enough.

We noticed this and Don87109 put on an experimental trade. We liked to test things with real money.

He bought a 2 lot ATM straddle, I believe, for a ridiculous price of 18 ea. Geez, I can't remember if it was a 30 or 40 stock, but it seemed absurd. Very high vol.

He got 20 ea. for the straddles, if I recall correctly, but he had to wait.

Didn't prove anything, just interesting.

cdcaveman · Apr 11, 2013

Quote from donnap:

Yeah, I traded these about 9 years ago. That often seemed to be the case in hindsight. The market had a hard time pricing vol high enough.

We noticed this and Don87109 put on an experimental trade. We liked to test things with real money.

He bought a 2 lot ATM straddle, I believe, for a ridiculous price of 18 ea. Geez, I can't remember if it was a 30 or 40 stock, but it seemed absurd. Very high vol.

He got 20 ea. for the straddles, if I recall correctly, but he had to wait.

Didn't prove anything, just interesting.

optionality.. and i agree.. i mean.. what would vols have to be for it to go to 25 in the front month.. haha

newwurldmn · Apr 11, 2013

I think it's universally accepted that the trial will succeed. The discount to success is risk premium and execution risk. I would trade vol as a proxy for direction. Short vol if you are bullish, long vol if you are bearish. The distribution is pricing rich on the upside and cheap on the downside.

My opinion only.

Landis82 · Apr 12, 2013

Quote from newwurldmn:

I think it's universally accepted that the trial will succeed. The discount to success is risk premium and execution risk.

The market-cap is only $670 million.

There are 5.8 million shorts out there that have been betting on management not being able to execute. Thus far, they have met their guidance every step of the way.... and have only been one month behind their "time-line" that was offered over 2 years ago.

In the past, if you have bet against CEO Kevin Conroy you have lost.