EXAS April options mis-priced

[cdcaveman]

Quote from Landis82:

Do yourself a favor and spend 20-30 minutes listening to the last quarterly conference call from Feb. 20th.
You can find the audio portion link here:

http://investor.exactsciences.com/events.cfm

your notes are appreciated..

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from jj90:

Good call on the collar, was looking at exactly that with those strikes.



Some of us peons are interested in what your points are, drop the holier than thou attitude next post around. We would just like to know the thesis.

i personally like not limiting my upside.. great so if your right you make alot of the vol premium.. but you will never hit a homerun that way..

the 8/10 backspread i like better.. we will see though..

 

[atticus]

Quote from newwurldmn:

I added more shares as well.

So this is my net position. I've seen this story before. I believe the trial will work, but the upside is limited. The Downside however is pretty bad.

It's not impossible the stock will selloff after a successful result (as fast money dumps in search of another catalyst stock to own).

There's a lot of optimism here. Even Cramer is touting the shares.

My concern is on the RR. The up and outs aren't trading where I'd expect them to trade if a large gap is expected. The May 10/13 RR is 1.18 favoring the 10s and 170/105 on the vol-line.

I'm only long 5300, but I'll be taking 14s or better if it gaps.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from jj90:

Good call on the collar, was looking at exactly that with those strikes.

Some of us peons are interested in what your points are, drop the holier than thou attitude next post around. We would just like to know the thesis.

Sorry man.

I'm not hear to educate those here that are too f-ing lazy to educate themselves.
The lack of "basics" expressed here about what this company is doing, the management team that is behind it,, let alone any concept of how BIG this market place is . . .is quite telling. The market will punish the lazy, and reward the diligent.
Not my call Bro.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from atticus:

My concern is on the RR. The up and outs aren't trading where I'd expect them to trade if a large gap is expected. The May 10/13 RR is 1.18 favoring the 10s and 170/105 on the vol-line.

I'm only long 5300, but I'll be taking 14s or better if it gaps.

RR = risk reward
Up and out = otm calls
10/13 = 10 strike & 13 strike in may
1.18 favoring the 10 strike with respect to the 13 strike
(Not sure how you came up with that)
170/105 on the vol line.... ...... ...... ..........
Implies of the 10/13 strike?.......

Always cryptic you are.... Its to much to make it clear for everyone.. Besides I'm sure Baron would love it if he could get some full words out of your posts for better indexing on the Google

 

[atticus]

Quote from cdcaveman:

RR = risk reward
Up and out = otm calls
10/13 = 10 strike & 13 strike in may
1.18 favoring the 10 strike with respect to the 13 strike
(Not sure how you came up with that)
170/105 on the vol line.... ...... ...... ..........
Implies of the 10/13 strike?.......

Always cryptic you are.... Its to much to make it clear for everyone.. Besides I'm sure Baron would love it if he could get some full words out of your posts for better indexing on the Google

Oh F, does that index?

Risk-reversal (pretty common and only fits in this context)
1.18 (premium on the put over the equal but opposing-sign delta in the call; 35-delta in this case)
170/105 (yeah, it's called BSM)

 

[justrading]

Quote from cdcaveman:


Always cryptic you are.... Its to much to make it clear for everyone.. Besides I'm sure Baron would love it if he could get some full words out of your posts for better indexing on the Google

Didn't think of the indexing, but good point. I've lost count of the number of times ET comes up high on page one in a search. The better the Page Rank the more site visitors you draw and that loops with the clicks.

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from atticus:

My concern is on the RR. The up and outs aren't trading where I'd expect them to trade if a large gap is expected. The May 10/13 RR is 1.18 favoring the 10s and 170/105 on the vol-line.

I'm only long 5300, but I'll be taking 14s or better if it gaps.

I don't think it gets to 14 on this data unless the data blows out of the water. This is unlikely from what I've been reading. Instead likely scenario is that data will be good (well above the 85 percent threshold).

It's probably a 40 dollar stock completely derisked. after this data is released, there is still all sorts of risks, most of all ability to get doctors onboard late next year. That's where most of these companies have trouble. It might be a good long term long, but I am not a biotech fundamental investor.

What I can't read is if there is something wrong that the data isn't out yet.

 

[oldnemesis]

"What I can't read is if there is something wrong that the data isn't out yet"

That's usually taken as a negative on the assumption that the company is trying to put a positive slant on negative data.

But not always.

I remember one company that had a report on a Phase 3 trial delayed a couple of months because the statistician on the study was having a baby.

 

[Landis82]

The clinical study is BLINDED.

After the data has been produced, a bio-statistician goes over the quality of the data. Once that has been completed, the study will become UNBLINDED and management will get their first view of the data. The data will then be announced to the public within 24-48 hours of the management team receiving the data via a press release and 8k filing.