How Climate Change Could Spread Diseases Like Zika
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Warmer temperatures could expand the area where mosquitoes can thrive
Florida Mayors Tell Marco Rubio to Take Climate Change Seriously Record Heat Wouldn’t Be Happening Without Human Influence, Study Says
For thousands of years, humans have taken every precaution to
avoid mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, from Malaria to
Zika. But while techniques for fighting the insects have improved dramatically over time, scientists say long-term climate change could soon make protecting humans from mosquitoes much more difficult.
The link between climate change and mosquito-borne illness centers around how
rising temperatures may expand the area in which mosquitoes can thrive. Most such illnesses can only be transmitted at temperatures between approximately 16°C (61°F) and 38°C (100°F), according to a World Health Organization
report. Perhaps more significantly, the time it takes for mosquitoes to develop decreases significantly the closer temperatures are to around 30°C (86°F). The average global temperature is expected to rise by at least 2°C (3.6°F) by 2100 even if countries take dramatic action to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. In some areas, that shift will be much more dramatic.
Shifts in precipitation levels caused by climate change could also have an effect on where mosquitoes can successfully reproduce. Mosquitoes breed in still water habitats and remain for a week after heavy rainfall.
Still, researchers say that the many variables at play make it difficult to predict exactly how global warming will affect mosquito populations in any given area. A 2013
study in the journal
PNAS describes the “complex feedbacks” between climate and mosquito-borne illness as highly “location-specific.” Some areas where policy makers have never had to worry about mosquitoes will likely face diseases unthinkable just decades ago. Other areas may become too hot for mosquitoes to thrive as they have in the past. “It’s hard to predict the details of this,” said Durland Fish, Yale University professor of forestry and environmental studies. “We don’t have very good climate change models at the local level.”..."
http://time.com/4200851/climate-change-mosquitoes-zika/