ES Journal Archive (2011)

[ammo]

we have two gaps in spy. what say you Lawrence Chan,or anyone else who watches the gaps

 

[ammo]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Where do you have the SPX gap?

Are you referring to ES 1151?

May still get filled later in the week, no? Or are you referring to another gap?

1181-1171 cash

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from ammo:

we have two gaps in spy. what say you Lawrence Chan,or anyone else who watches the gaps

They will stage it either at prev day high or prev day low to induce maximum confusion.

Accumulation is seen yesterday.

Wave is right that it is time to buy again.

 

[tortoise]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

They will stage it either at prev day high or prev day low to induce maximum confusion.

Accumulation is seen yesterday.

Wave is right that it is time to buy again.

So the gaps from 10/07 left unfilled for now?

 

[tortoise]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Based on the price action that has unfolded at this point, I`m expecting either an AH high @ 1205,25 at the 50% gap level or an AH low at 1175,25.

There is roughly a 70% chance that we make make the low at 1175,25. A slight chance that we expand beyond the average range and make the low at 70,75.

Odds are lower that we will trade up to 1205,25 or higher, but it is a possibility. The odds are however fairly high that I`m clueless and need to go to bed now.

What are your statistics based on?

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from tortoise:

So the gaps from 10/07 left unfilled for now?

Saving that for the final sell off starting next year. =)

 

[tortoise]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Saving that for the final sell off starting next year. =)

I'm inclined to agree, but it's a gut thing. Same for you? Or is there a statistic/analytic foundation? If so, could you share your logic?

Many thanks for your contributions. I've bought and read your "Special Theory of Price Discovery" and found it both elegant and helpful.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from tortoise:

I'm inclined to agree, but it's a gut thing. Same for you? Or is there a statistic/analytic foundation? If so, could you share your logic?

Many thanks for your contributions. I've bought and read your "Special Theory of Price Discovery" and found it both elegant and helpful.

no guts - pure statistics and breadth oversold condition.

season in bull's favor too.

last kick to kill the sell off is that people will be informed by media that the super committee does not matter until after 2013.

=)

 

[Laissez Faire]

It appears to me that even in the face of seasonality, the path of least resistance remains down for now until proven otherwise.

Back to bed.

 

[noone3]

I will start building a medium-term, medium size (for me) long position around here. Long 1187.5, tgt above 1200s
stop....somewhere below 84s but will get adjusted (or re-entered long) if i feel that there is strong momentum intra-day