ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Laissez Faire:

I added something to that last post and corrected a few typos.

Actually, I think the family thing is a bad idea, because they will never impose any discipline on you from simply reminding you to do that. That discipline needs to come from yourself. If not, you will fail again and again.

If you are serious about this, you stop live trading immediately and set up a dedicated sim account.
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The heart of the problem is I need someone to remind me that I should not be trading ES live till I have done some backtesting on it and I am sufficiently capitalized (read 8k-10k for 1 contract). Even someone reminding me would work imo, - since it would make me feel guilty. I am a good guy - in my eyes - and don't want to do anything wrong! So I think family thing will work - they don't have to force me just remind me casually.

Right now I have a paper trading account open, but my current setup has only one monitor and its a pain to bring in paper trading platform to trade ES, live platform to trade FX and chart program to look at markets. I might go for 1-2 more monitors in a month or so, then from desk organization point of view, it will be much easier to have demo platform open on another monitor. I think this change will really help me in sorting out this stupid thing.
 
For all the guys who hold overnights or weekends with large stops, one black swan event for next month or two is Israel attacking Iran. Be careful with longs held overnight, or selling puts.
 
Quote from anglagard:

Taking 50% out of the short swing at the 4PM close, whatever that will be, will update tonight.

Second half is much more ambitious, leaving it for a market collapse or a break-even stop.
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Decided against this, with stop at entry + 1

Will remain short 100% looking for new downside on the first half to cover that portion.
 
Assuming normal market conditions, I expect the maximum overnight high @ 1210,50 and the maximum low @ 1270,50.

If enough price action unfolds by the time I turn off my software, I may be bold enough to make a more accurate prediction. I am however fairly confident we take out the lows from the RTH session today. :)

Just as an experiment. Still clueless on long-term predictions, but trying to learn.
 
Quote from gmst:

For all the guys who hold overnights or weekends with large stops, one black swan event for next month or two is Israel attacking Iran. Be careful with longs held overnight, or selling puts.
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Eh, that would by after Nov 2012, may be...
 
Anglagard,

Got your PM, sorry I didnt respond earlier, caught a bug, been shitting all night.

Cover around my blue triangle, then reverse long there.

If the area fails you may go back short.

sxhl68.png


Bigger chart link: http://i42.tinypic.com/116j3h4.png


Crazy A
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Assuming normal market conditions, I expect the maximum overnight high @ 1210,50 and the maximum low @ 1270,50.
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Based on the price action that has unfolded at this point, I`m expecting either an AH high @ 1205,25 at the 50% gap level or an AH low at 1175,25.

There is roughly a 70% chance that we make make the low at 1175,25. A slight chance that we expand beyond the average range and make the low at 70,75.

Odds are lower that we will trade up to 1205,25 or higher, but it is a possibility. The odds are however fairly high that I`m clueless and need to go to bed now. :p
 
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