Quote from rock34748:
I do... I know I'm my own handicap. If I was in AA, knowing that I don't know squat might be considered progress, but... for now I'll focus on continued money mgmt, basic TA, and me to ward off bias.
It is difficult to do, especially since it is quite easy to understand.
Vol is quite right.
To get the best fills closest to your ps you need to enter against the herd so they are driving the price towards your ps, thereby reducing your risk.
Now you are ahead (front running) and as the herd swaps direction their momentum propels you to risk/reward ratios that you previously could not comprehend.
Remember, when we talk of the herd, we are referring to the mass of contracts that move price. We are not referring to a large mass of small retailers.
Frankly and in hindsight, I have never read a decent book on trading.
Agreed, the M. Douglas book stands out in a mediocre crowd and certain parts impressed me at the time several years ago, but not now.
The more I read from you guys on this thread, the more you are saying that this game is almost 100% psychological, and so you are on the right track imho.
If price never turned, but just keep on going up, we could all sit on the beach drinking margaritas whilst our long positions continued to get longer.
Sadly, that is not the case, since price reverses from time to time.
And so the one thing that always fascinates me and absorbs most of my attention is "when and where is price going to turn and by how much"
If you think that trading is purely a "random walk" then you are stuffed before you have even get started.
If you think that good money management, tight stops and letting profits run, is the sum total of the game; then you have skewed the odds significantly into your corner, but they can be pushed a great deal further if you begin to recognise the repeating patterns each and every day.
Then and only then do you develop the confidence to ramp up your trade size far beyond your current level of imagination.
The real money lies in trade size.
It is all about identifying weakness and exploiting it.
The weakness of the big boys lies in trying to turn a large number of contracts around a corner ... sure you can tell me that they break them into smaller parcels, but they still have a need to get the sum of the parts around the corner otherwise they wind up with counter trades ... it is simple physics really, the larger the mass the more it resists change.