ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from princessa:

last night i was looking at the es...it was at 65. i was thinking of taking a long and riding to 71 or so. i told my husband about it, but said i was afraid to take it b/c the 830 news could make it go awry. he said, "how much money will you make if it works?" i told him. he then said, "what happens if it doesn't?" i told him "i lose a bunch" he said don't take the trade, so i didn't.

looking at the movement today, it went right up to my sell point, then backed off. i sorta wished i had had the guts to take the play, but i guess caution is the better part of valor...sigh...

isn't it ironic when you get it right but don't take the play? when it would have worked out EXACTLY as you planned but you lacked the guts to take it?
i boiled an egg and a potato at lunch and put in 2 tbsp of mayo instead of 1, i ended up with mayo salad,the best laid plans....,
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Will begin looking short again now. 135 pts per contract on that trade. Nice gain--very satisfied with the performance. :)

Buy1Sell2 --

Do you recall about when you put this trade on? The reason I ask
is that I'm interested in how you might have gone about the decision of which contract to short. Did you initially choose the SEP
contract or did you roll a position from the JUN contract.

Is that even the correct terminology? -- I'm just beginning to learn about futures.

Thank you for your time and the voluminous journal.

newb
 
Quote from princessa:

last night i was looking at the es...it was at 65. i was thinking of taking a long and riding to 71 or so. i told my husband about it, but said i was afraid to take it b/c the 830 news could make it go awry. he said, "how much money will you make if it works?" i told him. he then said, "what happens if it doesn't?" i told him "i lose a bunch" he said don't take the trade, so i didn't.

looking at the movement today, it went right up to my sell point, then backed off. i sorta wished i had had the guts to take the play, but i guess caution is the better part of valor...sigh...

isn't it ironic when you get it right but don't take the play? when it would have worked out EXACTLY as you planned but you lacked the guts to take it?

should woulda coulda is one of the worst habits a trader can have. Next time maybe trade small size to test the market.
The reason it is such a bad habit is that it becomes all about being right which leads to arrogance about the market. Epistemic humility as Taleb says. Good trading!

edit: I didn't notice that others responded trader psychology is important.
 
Princessa,

I think it's a mistake to allow your husband to dictate your trading and/or investment decisions; but more importantly It'll likely work in your best interest to fully confront why it is you sabotoged yourself asking a non-trader his opinion of whether you should or shouldn't take a trade. Certainly you knew that his opinion would reflect that of capital conservation and only agree if you can be certain you would make money on the trade. Non-traders don't understand that losing money and making it is what this business is all about.

Perhaps you're trading with money that can't be afforded to be lost (the only cardinal sin in this game). In which case, maybe a more conservative vehicle like a CD at a Federal Credit Union would be more to you and your husband's liking. The Pentagon Federal Credit Union is offering 4.60% fixed for 5 years. It's about the best around these days. There is some red tape involved in joining, but if you want to join you can.

Think about it. Your analysis is proving correct, but loss frightens you. Eventually, that fear even if you put your husband in his place, will interfere with your trading analysis.

Take a break, alone, and reflect. If you're not able to, or more apt, allowed to, and trading is something that you enjoy, love and live for like all other traders: a choice must be made.

You're not in an easy place. I wouldn't trade for awhile until you can get a handle on the situation.

My best to you regardless of your decision;
 
Quote from Xuanxue:

Princessa,

I think it's a mistake to allow your husband to dictate your trading and/or investment decisions; but more importantly It'll likely work in your best interest to fully confront why it is you sabotoged yourself asking a non-trader his opinion of whether you should or shouldn't take a trade. Certainly you knew that his opinion would reflect that of capital conservation and only agree if you can be certain you would make money on the trade. Non-traders don't understand that losing money and making it is what this business is all about.

Perhaps you're trading with money that can't be afforded to be lost (the only cardinal sin in this game). In which case, maybe a more conservative vehicle like a CD at a Federal Credit Union would be more to you and your husband's liking. The Pentagon Federal Credit Union is offering 4.60% fixed for 5 years. It's about the best around these days. There is some red tape involved in joining, but if you want to join you can.

Think about it. Your analysis is proving correct, but loss frightens you. Eventually, that fear even if you put your husband in his place, will interfere with your trading analysis.

Take a break, alone, and reflect. If you're not able to, or more apt, allowed to, and trading is something that you enjoy, love and live for like all other traders: a choice must be made.

You're not in an easy place. I wouldn't trade for awhile until you can get a handle on the situation.

My best to you regardless of your decision;

This guy sure has some words of wisdom sometimes. :D

Very nice post.
 
i'm finding the confluence of friday's value area low with the 38.2 retrace of July's range to be of interest...Both are at 1256.50. We've tested it once this morning. Now we're testing it again.

On the other hand, there's a fair amoung of congestion as we move up to 1260, so I suppose this could be fairly described as "no man's land," a staging ground for a strong breakout in either direction.
 
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