ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Mins]

Quote from dmartin:

Your trading is random and you basically have no premise in what you are doing. In addition, you don't even follow your rules. You risked around 20 points on 5 contracts last Friday and around 5 points today on 10 contracts. You have stated you risk no more than either 1 or 2% on any one trade but obviously that is not true as these last two trades show.

You do a serious disservice to these would be traders in having them post their trades in real time. If they were to post their trades AND explain why they are going short or long then possibly it would be a fine service. Even with that, I guarantee you their trades are random--no statistical edge--just like yours.

I have to agree to this somewhat.

It does seem like simple strategy Buy1Sell2 uses, he cannot provide us with any stats to whether this system works. If it does then that is very good but i have tested simple systems like the one Buy1Sell2 employs and most do very badly.

Without a back tested statistical edge the rest is just gambling in the short run imo.

Can't believe how many traders are probably still trading without taking the effort and time to get some statistics on their plays.

Most of these divergence plays could simply be programmed and then shown that over the long run they have no edge - but again each to their own method of trading.

I may be a newbie but i can tell you nearly all the stats for all my plays over a 5 year period - and these are play which cannot be programmed. Without this the rest is gambling and short term luck imo.

Good trade though Buy1Sell2

 

[kinggyppo]

trading is gambling, yawn.

 

[ammo]

if 40 was the golden buy area,where are the bulls?

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Long 1342.75 off 3 & 1, stop below 1342, hard -6

Scaled out 2/3 +3

1/3 +3.25

reversed Short 1346 off 1, stop near 1348, hard stop +10

Scaled out 2/3 +4

Seen this before when they push it into lunch

 

[Mins]

Quote from kinggyppo:

trading is gambling, yawn.

Well obviously but gambling with an edge can be financially rewarding. To others just seeking the thrill go to Vegas.

 

[OldTrader]

Quote from Mins:

Well obviously but gambling with an edge can be financially rewarding. To others just seeking the thrill go to Vegas.

How do you define "edge", and what makes you think there is one?

OldTrader

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Mins:

I have to agree to this somewhat.

It does seem like simple strategy Buy1Sell2 uses, he cannot provide us with any stats to whether this system works. If it does then that is very good but i have tested simple systems like the one Buy1Sell2 employs and most do very badly.

Without a back tested statistical edge the rest is just gambling in the short run imo.

Can't believe how many traders are probably still trading without taking the effort and time to get some statistics on their plays.

Most of these divergence plays could simply be programmed and then shown that over the long run they have no edge - but again each to their own method of trading.

I may be a newbie but i can tell you nearly all the stats for all my plays over a 5 year period - and these are play which cannot be programmed. Without this the rest is gambling and short term luck imo.

Good trade though Buy1Sell2

So what you say is that discretional traders ultimately are all losers?

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Mins:

Well obviously but gambling with an edge can be financially rewarding. To others just seeking the thrill go to Vegas.

First there is an implication that gambling is wrong (legal in Nevada though), riverboats and the lotteries that mostly poor people participate in, not too hypocritical from the powers that be. Lots of discussion of edge on the threads but what does this mean. It was defined by one trader as an edge in execution, ie being in the pits, having the advantage of front running order flow. Can I say that tape reading is an edge? I am just saying that trading is gambling is a fallacious argument to me. But by all means rip on Buy 1 if you think he is wrong. No one has to follow his rules for the thread and there is always the ignore button. Good trading.

 

[OldTrader]

Quote from smilingsynic:

Ever hear of the idea of buying support, with a stop close but not too close (if support holds, big gain; if support fails, small loss)?

I would guess an "old trader" would have.

Of course...but you knew that didn't you? By the way, I don't see any support there at 1340. Not that it might not bottom there, but no classically defined chart support.

That said, it's a tough strategy to buy against the trend, support tends not to work well in those circumstances. My opinion.

OldTrader

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I am trying to be part of the group and exhibit some daytrades. It's all relative.

Glad to see you're walking the talk B1S2.

Hate to see you get criticized by guys who never once even made a call on your entire 6,000+ page Journal, but hey, that's just the way it is I guess.

"There are those who watch and criticize, and those who do."
***
Short 1340.50
Stop @ 1343.50

Later,

JJ