ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Mins:

I have to agree to this somewhat.

It does seem like simple strategy Buy1Sell2 uses, he cannot provide us with any stats to whether this system works. If it does then that is very good but i have tested simple systems like the one Buy1Sell2 employs and most do very badly.

Without a back tested statistical edge the rest is just gambling in the short run imo.

Can't believe how many traders are probably still trading without taking the effort and time to get some statistics on their plays.

Most of these divergence plays could simply be programmed and then shown that over the long run they have no edge - but again each to their own method of trading.


I may be a newbie but i can tell you nearly all the stats for all my plays over a 5 year period - and these are play which cannot be programmed. Without this the rest is gambling and short term luck imo.

Good trade though Buy1Sell2
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A couple of items to point out here in response. I did not take a divergence trade today. I simply sold into a downtrending market. --. My edge is not the entry and exit. My edge is capital management and moving my stop. The entries and exits are there to be a little better only. Divergence plays are not programmable as there are varying degrees that the trained eye can discern much better than a machine. By the by, I don't need to backtest. I have forward tested with real money for years. :) Thank you for your nice comments concerning my trade!
 
Quote from dmartin:

Your trading is random and you basically have no premise in what you are doing. In addition, you don't even follow your rules. You risked around 20 points on 5 contracts last Friday and around 5 points today on 10 contracts. You have stated you risk no more than either 1 or 2% on any one trade but obviously that is not true as these last two trades show.

You do a serious disservice to these would be traders in having them post their trades in real time. If they were to post their trades AND explain why they are going short or long then possibly it would be a fine service. Even with that, I guarantee you their trades are random--no statistical edge--just like yours.
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What makes you think that that either of the trades you cited exceeds the 2% risk limit. Maybe they are both within the guidelines. Perhaps you can illustrate the logic you're using to make this statement.

Can you show a trade that has an edge? How did you determine whether it had an edge or not?

OldTrader
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

So what you say is that discretional traders ultimately are all losers?
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No not at all. Like i said i am a discretionary trader but i know my plays, i have rules for my entries and exits. I have money management rules, scaling, trailing rules.

These can all be back tested and trader can see if their particular strategy has a positive expectancy over the long run.

I have often pondered over charts for last couple of months and thought WOW i found an amazing strategy only to see that a month down the line it gets killed.

I can test all my discretionary plays, i don't like gut feelings and i don't trade the news. I do not have the advanced programming abilities to to program my favourite plays. However, i have taken 1000s of hours to go over enough data and get the statistics of any of my plays.

I then try to employ the strategies which suit my style e.g. smaller stops 3 points or less.

If you rely on indicators imo then why not try back testing them and see if they provide an edge in the long run. You can play around with your money management rules and again see if your strategy is a real edge or short term luck.

This is just my opinion - again each to their own particular method of trading.
 
go to www.charthub .com and pull yesterdays posts and at the bottom there is es ytd, there is cleavage at 36 area which we will fill and next nip is 1330,i don't see this bouncing so it' going lower
 
Here is visual of 1m, basically re-entering dominant trend for the day was the idea after the bounce, 1m' histogram provided a perfect lead for a heat-free entry. From what I have seen so far on days like today there is ongoing selling pressure into midday, hence price collapses pretty quick.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1954050>
 

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Quote from OldTrader:

Of course...but you knew that didn't you? By the way, I don't see any support there at 1340. Not that it might not bottom there, but no classically defined chart support.
OldTrader
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The support is there OT and the longs are chipping away at the shorts

regards
f9
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

A couple of items to point out here in response. I did not take a divergence trade today. I simply sold into a downtrending market. --. My edge is not the entry and exit. My edge is capital management and moving my stop. The entries and exits are there to be a little better only. Divergence plays are not programmable as there are varying degrees that the trained eye can discern much better than a machine. By the by, I don't need to backtest. I have forward tested with real money for years. :) Thank you for your nice comments concerning my trade!
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Sorry i am not here to insult anyone i simply wanted to know if your strategy had been back tested. I know you are a veteran trader so i am not trying to be a smart ass.

Just with my own trading, i only ever felt confident in my strategy if i know over the long run with a large enough sample it provides me with an edge. Money management is part of the strategy.

As for divergences, well they can be back-tested - obviously certain trades will be purely discretionary but i am sure you have rules which you follow when taking a trade. I lot of these can probably be tested and provide a sample to see whether the strategy works.

Anyway good trading to all. I hope this does not come across as me badgering Buy1Sell2 but more a discussion of trading strategies and idea.
 
Quote from Mins:

Sorry i am not here to insult anyone i simply wanted to know if your strategy had been back tested. I know you are a veteran trader so i am not trying to be a smart ass.
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??? I was just responding to you and thanking you for the nice comment about my trade. I didn't think you were being smart aleck
 
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