ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Mins:


If you rely on indicators imo then why not try back testing them and see if they provide an edge in the long run. You can play around with your money management rules and again see if your strategy is a real edge or short term luck.
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TY Mins, personally I don't see the point in back-testing, I understand how a market works to a degree that makes sense to me to participate via methods that show weakening price action in combination of price & indicator, I know what an average oscillation in an active market may serve as a target, although I am by no means an expert with years of trading behind me, not at all, but it seems to work, maybe I have a good feel, eye, nose :)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

??? I was just responding to you and thanking you for the nice comment about my trade. I didn't think you were being smart aleck
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Thank you, i mean in all my posts today - hope i am not simply downing other peoples ideas.

All the best.
 
Quote from Mins:

I have to agree to this somewhat.

It does seem like simple strategy Buy1Sell2 uses, he cannot provide us with any stats to whether this system works. If it does then that is very good but i have tested simple systems like the one Buy1Sell2 employs and most do very badly.

Without a back tested statistical edge the rest is just gambling in the short run imo.

Can't believe how many traders are probably still trading without taking the effort and time to get some statistics on their plays.

Most of these divergence plays could simply be programmed and then shown that over the long run they have no edge - but again each to their own method of trading.

I may be a newbie but i can tell you nearly all the stats for all my plays over a 5 year period - and these are play which cannot be programmed. Without this the rest is gambling and short term luck imo.

Good trade though Buy1Sell2
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Backtesting is great and all, but it doesn't beat real money testing. I've been trading since 2000 (part time for most of it) and all 8 years have been positive and 7 out of the 8 years beating all the major indicies.

I have beaten the indicies with risk adusted returns as well. This is in part that I do not trade with leverage. (I've mentioned this in the past)

Edit: I do use leverage in a different strategy. Selling option premium (naked) on the ES. This strategy I've been profitable 7 out of 8 years and have beaten the major indicies 6 out of 8 years. Risk adjusted returns I've beaten the S&P in 4 out of the 8 years.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

TY Mins, personally I don't see the point in back-testing, I understand how a market works to a degree that makes sense to me to participate via methods that show weakening price action in combination of price & indicator, I know what an average oscillation in an active market may serve as a target, although I am by no means an expert with years of trading behind me, not at all, but it seems to work, maybe I have a good feel, eye, nose :)
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Okay whatever works for you. There are a million ways to trade this thing and make money.

I wonder however would you change your strategy if you had a period of losing months???
 
Quote from kamek:

futures or stock or options...does it matter?
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Since no one else has responded (possibly a wise decision), I will.

Yes, it does matter. This is a journal of people trading the ES contract, with an occasional NQ trader thrown in.

Your travails trading RIMM in whatever form is entirely extraneous to this journal.

JB
 
Quote from dmartin:

Your trading is random and you basically have no premise in what you are doing. In addition, you don't even follow your rules. You risked around 20 points on 5 contracts last Friday and around 5 points today on 10 contracts. You have stated you risk no more than either 1 or 2% on any one trade but obviously that is not true as these last two trades show.

You do a serious disservice to these would be traders in having them post their trades in real time. If they were to post their trades AND explain why they are going short or long then possibly it would be a fine service. Even with that, I guarantee you their trades are random--no statistical edge--just like yours.
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The only entities/groups that have a real edge over the long term are as follows (Listed from highest to lowest degree of edge);

1. Brokers.
2. Diversified long term investors.
3. Seminar organizers.
4. Market software developers.
5. Advisories and Market newsletters.
6. Daytraders.

Notice, daytraders are at the bottom of the food (edge) chain. Diversified long term investors have a much higher edge and fewer commisions. I have yet to meet a daytrader with verifiable track record that is consistent in the SP over a period of 5 years. If you know of one, please let me know :)
 
Quote from Mins:

Okay whatever works for you. There are a million ways to trade this thing and make money.

I wonder however would you change your strategy if you had a period of losing months???
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I think I would be forced to :)
 
Quote from iloveoptions:

The only entities/groups that have a real edge over the long term are as follows (Listed from highest to lowest degree of edge);

1. Brokers.
5. Diversified long term investors.
2. Seminar organizers.
3. Market software developers.
4. Advisories and Market newsletters.
6. Daytraders.

Notice, daytraders are at the bottom of the food (edge) chain. Diversified long term investors have a much higher edge and fewer commisions. I have yet to meet a daytrader with verifiable track record that is consistent in the SP over a period of 5 years. If you know of one, please let me know :)
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Very good and funny!
 
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