ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Spectre2007:

marty schwartz in pit bull, if a market gaps up and fails to come down after 3 days, then trading in the direction of the gap is of higher probability.
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I would love to see the statistics on this. My subjective impression is that gaps don't get the same respect that they once did -- certainly not gaps of the last three-to-six months...
 
Quote from tortoise:

I would love to see the statistics on this. My subjective impression is that gaps don't get the same respect that they once did -- certainly not gaps of the last three-to-six months...
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thurs + friday... day 1 and 2, Monday will be day 3...
 
Quote from tortoise:

When you say "because the move has already occurred," do you mean the move up from Friday? Sorry, if I'm missing something obvious. Also, could you elaborate a bit on why you think we'd continue to move up without pulling back? Are you looking at Friday as a bull flag? Thnx...

P.S. As I watch Globex action now consolidating around 1482, I can just as easily see it settling no lower than 1480, then moving smartly up from there. It's all a matter of probabilities, of course. My weakness is in gaming those probabilities...
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yes the rally off Fridays low was the high probability bounce. Continue to move up because its the path of least resistance and coming off support. Its just probabilities, nothing for certain. I traded flags and pennants at the beginning.. I have found no signifcant edge in the pattern.. thats just me though. I tend to take profits at the break of a flag and sell to the weak hands providing liquidity for me and leave a piece on as a runner.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

price action can't escape some systems and some markets during certain times.

:)
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would you help this knucklehead here (that's me, btw) by expanding a bit on your meaning?
 
Quote from tortoise:

would you help this knucklehead here (that's me, btw) by expanding a bit on your meaning?
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a surgeon uses certain tools during different parts of the surgery...different needles or sutures, different cutting blades all to meet certain objectives and goals each with tradeoffs.

systems are the same way. A lot of people make the mistake of grossly applying a system at all times and with every market. Systems are tools, and you have to know what conditions generate high probability signals and during what times.

the 'conditions' in a market is similar to the weather, it has a certain amount of duration or temporality. Just as a cyclone starts and persists for a certain amout of time, market conditions change from session to session given the factors its exposed to.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

a surgeon uses certain tools during different parts of the surgery...different needles or sutures, different cutting blades all to meet certain objectives and goals each with tradeoffs.

systems are the same way. A lot of people make the mistake of grossly applying a system at all times and with every market. Systems are tools, and you have to know what conditions generate high probability signals and during what times.

the 'conditions' in a market is similar to the weather, it has a certain amount of duration or temporality. Just as a cyclone starts and persists for a certain amout of time, market conditions change from session to session given the factors its exposed to.
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Yes, agreed. Thanks.

Wasn't sure if you were making a specific point with the chart. Perhaps it's just past my bedtime....

Interesting to see ES hang here at 1482ish. Or perhaps not:p

G'night all...
 
a surgeon uses certain tools during different parts of the surgery...different needles or sutures, different cutting blades all to meet certain objectives and goals each with tradeoffs.

systems are the same way. A lot of people make the mistake of grossly applying a system at all times and with every market. Systems are tools, and you have to know what conditions generate high probability signals and during what times.

the 'conditions' in a market is similar to the weather, it has a certain amount of duration or temporality. Just as a cyclone starts and persists for a certain amout of time, market conditions change from session to session given the factors its exposed to.
a surgeon uses certain tools during different parts of the surgery...different needles or sutures, different cutting blades all to meet certain objectives and goals each with tradeoffs.

systems are the same way. A lot of people make the mistake of grossly applying a system at all times and with every market. Systems are tools, and you have to know what conditions generate high probability signals and during what times.

the 'conditions' in a market is similar to the weather, it has a certain amount of duration or temporality. Just as a cyclone starts and persists for a certain amout of time, market conditions change from session to session given the factors its exposed to.


Well said! Master trader. That bit of advice took me the longest to learn and it was the hardest to except. Examples would be, Globex merging with the pit trading session and when will the paper flow start decreasing. Would anyone else like too add to this list?
 
I will go to bed with a limit order to buy at 1475 if it dips in middle of the night low volume silliness. Will keep a 10 point stop IF filled looking for something close to 1505 if we get a pre-fed rally and some economic news that supports whatever the market wants :D
 
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