ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from BoyBrutus:

...and thats what they said last year. Lets bloody this christmas rally...fingers crossed :D
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1) year end tax selling, washout rule prevents buy backs for 30 days or so. Though doesn't prevent intrasector buy backs.

2) macro environment still early stages of down turn.

3) overhanging pessimism in financial industry. Job cuts.

4) housing industry food chain, increased unemployment. Builders/contractors/electricians/plumbers/...whole service sector.

5) winter...cold chill the bones. Low light levels.

Spring of next year should be the rally point..as light levels increase, more FED cuts in.
 
I have been following your Discussions for a couple of weeks but always too busy to respond. I hope you don’t mind be getting in on your conversation.
Thursday I was a little uneasy with the Russell, its weakness definitely had an affect on the SP and me. I’ve seen many reversals start with the Russell and I’m sure the locals were pretty nervous. Friday was your usual counter trend day and it was the end of the month in regards to option expiration.
The magic question is will we be weak on Monday? If you look at the 60min chart the stochastic is still showing some topside room. I think apex82 has made a fairly good call. I don’t particularly like getting into prediction sessions because I find them counter productive. I’m a program trader and for me it doesn't really matter what way any market is going. But if I was going to guess! Then I would be leaning towards the 90% area for an up day in Globex before we possible get into a sell off and open down before the Chicago open. If not! Fret not! The first of the month is upon us and maybe it will be a Mutual Fund Monday. Let’s just hope whatever swing we are in that we are on the right side of the market.

p.s. Spectre2007 great postings and those were some great returns.
 
there is an excellent trade coming up in the bond market. If you saw what happened in just 1 day how sentiment was rescued and shifted. The maestro's can pretty much take the market where ever they wish to.

but the jist is, bonds are at close to all time highs, if the equity market is not going to fall apart, these prices would be historically rare. So an excellent short opportunity for a position trade.

I've been going in and out of bonds last couple sessions working out well, all trades initiated on short side with equity strength.

With dollar strength bonds could be being used to park SWF cash. So artificial inflows against the macro tide. The highs can be breached for a time interval of months.

But with a multiyear position trade with the macro cycle. These prices shouldn't last.
 
I've been looking at everything over the weekend.

I might throw in the equity bear towel. The short time interval between now and next spring, may not be enough to break the 1380 level.

Market may be looking to break the 1580 level instead, the buyers looking to buy it cheaper may not get that opportunity.

Instead the market will be bid up as spring approaches, and eventually breaking up above 1600.
 
Quote from Zodiac4u:

I have been following your Discussions for a couple of weeks but always too busy to respond. I hope you don’t mind be getting in on your conversation.
Thursday I was a little uneasy with the Russell, its weakness definitely had an affect on the SP and me. I’ve seen many reversals start with the Russell and I’m sure the locals were pretty nervous. Friday was your usual counter trend day and it was the end of the month in regards to option expiration.
The magic question is will we be weak on Monday? If you look at the 60min chart the stochastic is still showing some topside room. I think apex82 has made a fairly good call. I don’t particularly like getting into prediction sessions because I find them counter productive. I’m a program trader and for me it doesn't really matter what way any market is going. But if I was going to guess! Then I would be leaning towards the 90% area for an up day in Globex before we possible get into a sell off and open down before the Chicago open. If not! Fret not! The first of the month is upon us and maybe it will be a Mutual Fund Monday. Let’s just hope whatever swing we are in that we are on the right side of the market.

p.s. Spectre2007 great postings and those were some great returns.
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what kind of filters do you use for your program trades?
 
Spectre2007,


Sorry for not getting back to you sooner. I just got back from Chicago and I caught a nasty bug and it’s got me off kilter in a really bad way. In regards to your question? I do not use any filters. Once in a while I may depending on what the market is doing when I wake up.
 
Quote from tortoise:

As I see it for tomorrow, settling into the 1470 - 72 area for a move up, possibly past Friday's high. Thoughts?
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I like it but just know that if we dip back down the odds are much lower on a rally to new highs because the move has already occured. Higher probability we move to new highs before moving down.

1500-1510 looks like nice resistance and I will be looking to play the short side from those levels once they are confirmed for a move back to 1450.
 
Quote from apex82:

I like it but just know that if we dip back down the odds are much lower on a rally to new highs because the move has already occured. Higher probability we move to new highs before moving down.
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When you say "because the move has already occurred," do you mean the move up from Friday? Sorry, if I'm missing something obvious. Also, could you elaborate a bit on why you think we'd continue to move up without pulling back? Are you looking at Friday as a bull flag? Thnx...

P.S. As I watch Globex action now consolidating around 1482, I can just as easily see it settling no lower than 1480, then moving smartly up from there. It's all a matter of probabilities, of course. My weakness is in gaming those probabilities...
 
marty schwartz in pit bull, if a market gaps up and fails to come down after 3 days, then trading in the direction of the gap is of higher probability.

I would give it a test on Monday where it closes.

also notice the PA in AH is bearish...different from previous sessions. Some statistical algos trading it on the bearish side now.
 
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