3 rd time's a charm
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Good morning, all!
I went short at 1475.75 with a 1-point stop. This is not a homerun attempt: my profit target on this one is a modest 1471 (4.75 points), at which point I'll be looking to go long for the home run.
Although countertrend from a daily perspective, I decided to go short because ES appears to have been micro-trending down in a nice descending price channel, the top of which is more or less coincident with the 100-bar MA on my 240-tick chart. I entered where it touched the top of this channel (and the MA) at the point that I believe is roughly the 50% point of a downmove from 1484.00 to 1471.00, and my hope is to catch the last half of that move.
The target of 1471 would touch the bottom of a multi-day ascending price channel, so I hope to go long there. If I'm able to do that, my initial PT will be HOD (i.e., close-the-gap), with a significantly higher PT beyond that which might entail holding the long overnight.
I'm getting ahead of myself here, as I don't yet know whether ES will reach my 1471 stop-and-reverse point (but it's now only one point away). Anyway, that's where my head's at presently.
EDIT: Well that worked out nicely! Filled at 1471.25 for +4.5 on the countertrend scalp. Now looking to go long below 1470 for the biggie.
BTW, there was a nicer short entry point that presented itself at 10am ET (at 1479.50), but unfortunately I missed it.
I went short at 1475.75 with a 1-point stop. This is not a homerun attempt: my profit target on this one is a modest 1471 (4.75 points), at which point I'll be looking to go long for the home run.
Although countertrend from a daily perspective, I decided to go short because ES appears to have been micro-trending down in a nice descending price channel, the top of which is more or less coincident with the 100-bar MA on my 240-tick chart. I entered where it touched the top of this channel (and the MA) at the point that I believe is roughly the 50% point of a downmove from 1484.00 to 1471.00, and my hope is to catch the last half of that move.
The target of 1471 would touch the bottom of a multi-day ascending price channel, so I hope to go long there. If I'm able to do that, my initial PT will be HOD (i.e., close-the-gap), with a significantly higher PT beyond that which might entail holding the long overnight.
I'm getting ahead of myself here, as I don't yet know whether ES will reach my 1471 stop-and-reverse point (but it's now only one point away). Anyway, that's where my head's at presently.
EDIT: Well that worked out nicely! Filled at 1471.25 for +4.5 on the countertrend scalp. Now looking to go long below 1470 for the biggie.
BTW, there was a nicer short entry point that presented itself at 10am ET (at 1479.50), but unfortunately I missed it.
Back up at the top of the descending micro-channel at 1473.25. Should be heading a bit lower from there, although I suspect this downmove is running out of steam. I'm waiting to see some divergences before I go long.
BTW, a price channel is, by definition, a series of AB = CD moves. in the same direction Think about it.
EDIT: I'm in a bit of a conundrum here.
I have two successive reversal confirmation bars on the 15-minute chart. However, I do not see the divergences I was hoping to see. In addition, ES is right at the very tip-top of the descending micro-channel and just a few ticks higher would constitute an upside breakout from that micro-channel.
So do I wait for a pullback to below 1470, or has the reversal occurred already and I missed the low-point entry?
Not sure, but since impatience has often been my undoing in the past, and since the market usually offers a second bite of the apple, I'm presently inclined to wait for a more perfect entrypoint.
I know many of you are critical of my use of very close stops (1-2 points, tops), but one thing this does is make one very, very, very picky about precise entry points.
Hope you don't mind me thinking aloud here...
BTW, a price channel is, by definition, a series of AB = CD moves. in the same direction Think about it.
EDIT: I'm in a bit of a conundrum here.
I have two successive reversal confirmation bars on the 15-minute chart. However, I do not see the divergences I was hoping to see. In addition, ES is right at the very tip-top of the descending micro-channel and just a few ticks higher would constitute an upside breakout from that micro-channel.
So do I wait for a pullback to below 1470, or has the reversal occurred already and I missed the low-point entry?
Not sure, but since impatience has often been my undoing in the past, and since the market usually offers a second bite of the apple, I'm presently inclined to wait for a more perfect entrypoint.
I know many of you are critical of my use of very close stops (1-2 points, tops), but one thing this does is make one very, very, very picky about precise entry points.
Hope you don't mind me thinking aloud here...
I think this is a level to scale in for a lot more upside.I expect large gains tomorrow.
right now if Im a hedge fund manager,I would be buying contracts little by little every 10 minutes or so.Great spot for accumulation.
thanks to mbusch for posting all those charts yesterday.
blackguard
right now if Im a hedge fund manager,I would be buying contracts little by little every 10 minutes or so.Great spot for accumulation.
thanks to mbusch for posting all those charts yesterday.
blackguard
Went long @1473 at 10:45 CST. No sweat!:eek: 70 is stop 78 is PT
<img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1582810
<img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1582810
It was not to be. Descending micro-channel violated to the upside, so 1468.75 target is now invalidated. I declare the micro-trend to have now changed from short to long, and will be looking to get long on any pullback.Quote from mbusch:
Yeah! Come to pappa!
EDIT: Calculated AB=CD target for this current micro-down-move is 1468.75. That's definitely in my buy zone.
It's nice when the market acts according to your plan, but it doesn't always accommodate. I was pleased to see that my price target calculation (and my exit from the short) nailed the low right to the tick. I guess it was too much to expect a second miracle.
EDIT: Okay, I'm now long from 1473.75 with my maximum 2-point stop. This was not my favorite entry, and it really deserves a 3-point or larger stop, but that would be a violation of my trading plan and I'm going to stick with my plan for better or for worse.
Per my post yesterday, my profit target for this long is 1515.50 (+41.75 points), which I expect to take several days to reach -- hopefully by the end of this week, because I'm definitely not going to hold a position over the three-day weekend.
Tighten stop to 1472. PT is still 78
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