ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Textbook 50% retracement there, nice entrypoint for anyone who wasn't already long.

Next AB=CD stop is 1477.25. I would not be surprised by another partial retracement from there, which would represent another long entry opportunity IMHO.

EDIT: Did I nail that puppy to the tick, or what? :)

EDIT: Beautiful pullback to 1474. I have added on to my long here (at 74.25). So far, this move is exceedingly well-behaved and by-the-book. (That could change at any time, of course.)

Next AB=CD target is 1478.75 with a possible "pause that refreshes" at the midpoint (1475.50 or so).
 
Quote from mbusch:

Textbook 50% retracement there, nice entrypoint for anyone who wasn't already long.

Next AB=CD stop is 1477.25. I would not be surprised by another partial retracement from there, which would represent another long entry opportunity IMHO.

EDIT: Did I nail that puppy to the tick, or what? :)

EDIT: Beautiful pullback to 1474. I have added on to my long here (at 74.25). So far, this move is exceedingly well-behaved and by-the-book. (That could change at any time, of course.)
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Beautiful, bloody beautiful MB :D

Once again excellent explanation and commentary, thx
 
Three-wave retracement right on the money here:

A=1477.50
B=1474.00
C=1476.00
Calculated D target=1472.50
Actual D=1472.75

Amazing, isn't it?

In hindsight, I added on at B but D would have been 1.5 points better. (So shoot me.) :)

1472.75 has now been tested twice (12:57 and 13:40-44 ET), so it's probably pretty solid support at this point. It also happens to coincide exactly with the rising trendline from 11:21 ET. By the same token, if it is violated, all bets are off and I'm on the sidelines until I get things sorted out.

EDIT: Ouch, it was indeed violated, and I'm out with a 2-point loss. My 1515 target remains valid, so I'll be looking for another chance to get long, but the micro-trend is now down until it proves itself otherwise.

Actually, now that I look at it, I FINALLY see the bullish divergence I was hoping for earlier, so the perfect long entry I was seeking might be coming up shortly (or even happening now, although I need some confirmation to be sure).
 
I am still flat (unfortunately), but for anyone who isn't, short-term target price is now 1478.75. Multi-day target remains 1515.50. I hope to be in on that action soon, but this is not a comfortable place to re-enter.

EDIT: Wow, 1478.75 hit right to the tick. Sadly I was not in play. Hopeful we now fall back at least 50% (i.e., to 1475) providing me a re-entry point.

So far, today has been an object lesson in what I'm doing well (strategy) and what I'm doing not-so-well (tactics). I'll definitely be having a little talk with myself after the market closes today, and considering some tweaks to the trading plan.

When I first entered my long trade today, I remarked here that the entry was such that it really deserved a 3-point stop instead of the 2-point max stop permitted by my trading plan. In hindsight, had I used a 3-point stop, I'd be in tall cotton right now. By the same token, had I been a bit more patient and waited for a better entry (which did come), a 2-point stop would have been plenty. So I'm going to have to think long and hard about this.
 
Quote from mbusch:

I am still flat (unfortunately), but for anyone who isn't, short-term target price is now 1478.75. Multi-day target remains 1515.50. I hope to be in on that action soon, but this is not a comfortable place to re-enter.
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Good call on the short term
 
Quote from mbusch:

Thanks. I laid out the methodology here yesterday, and it's so simple even a caveman could do it. :D
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i enjoyed your chart progression- my head has gotten away from looking @ the bigger picture, using trend lines, etc- so it was a good kick in the head for me.

that said, the type of racism in your last post is far too common, reprehensible, and must stop!
 
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