ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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And I just found my perfect entrypoint (I hope) at 1468.25 just before the close. Went long and carrying into AH. Should be interesting.

I guess all my earlier agonizing about 2- vs 3-point stops turned out to be pretty moot.

Wonder if the talking heads were looking at the charts I posted here Sunday? CNBC's headline story:

More Investors Are Betting On Major Selloff in Stocks
Not everyone on Wall Street is convinced that the worst is over. In fact, some investors are betting tens of millions of dollars that the market is headed for a selloff--a major selloff.

Yup! :eek:

Actually, though, given that CNBC is such a reliable contrarian indicator, this makes me happy to be long (at least short-term).

Good trading, all!
 
Flat tonight, although my TA prediction for taking out Thur. low of 1457 stands but, I feel again based on TA that 1478 needs to be revisited before that, so will look for a formation tom.
Also looks like Fri.'s high might have been a top for now.
 
Quote from mbusch:

Now for the scary stuff...




Let's be clear that this isn't due to happen any time in the next few days, weeks, or months. We don't yet have an RSI grail or MACD divergence, and the shorter-term trends are clearly still up. But if and when it happens, your investment funds better be in cash (or shorts or puts).
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what is an rsi grail?
 
Quote from princessa:

wow. i wouldn't have pictured you as that....
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I am a NATURAL bodybuilder, ripped and pushing 40. If I could find a natural contest in my area I would compete in the tall masters class starting next year. In contests that are not drug-tested, I would not stand a chance. Weirder yet, I am a professor; when I work out in the university gym, students (including football players--Division II level) ask me for tips (bodybuilding, not stock). I love it.

Bodybuilding does wonders for the stress from trading. I don't think I would be able to trade without it.

I trade the ES full time in the summers and during the academic year in between my courses (I teach only during the dead zone--I have mornings and afternoons free). When I am in class I leave limit orders right outside current pivots. I miss some trades, but end up getting about three round trips a day.

I never thanked you for your kind remarks from last week. So thanks. :-)
 
Quote from mbusch:

Good morning, all!

I went short at 1475.75 with a 1-point stop. This is not a homerun attempt: my profit target on this one is a modest 1471 (4.75 points), at which point I'll be looking to go long for the home run.

Although countertrend from a daily perspective, I decided to go short because ES appears to have been micro-trending down in a nice descending price channel, the top of which is more or less coincident with the 100-bar MA on my 240-tick chart. I entered where it touched the top of this channel (and the MA) at the point that I believe is roughly the 50% point of a downmove from 1484.00 to 1471.00, and my hope is to catch the last half of that move.

The target of 1471 would touch the bottom of a multi-day ascending price channel, so I hope to go long there. If I'm able to do that, my initial PT will be HOD (i.e., close-the-gap), with a significantly higher PT beyond that which might entail holding the long overnight.

I'm getting ahead of myself here, as I don't yet know whether ES will reach my 1471 stop-and-reverse point (but it's now only one point away). Anyway, that's where my head's at presently.

EDIT: Well that worked out nicely! Filled at 1471.25 for +4.5 on the countertrend scalp. Now looking to go long below 1470 for the biggie.

BTW, there was a nicer short entry point that presented itself at 10am ET (at 1479.50), but unfortunately I missed it.
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great trading, mbusch, and, although i'm a bit late reading it, thanks for the macro analysis. very interesting and wouldn't surprise me if true.
 
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