ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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apex, could you elaborate a bit on the setup you see in TLT? I see a .618 retracement at 86.09 (5/12/06 low 82.56 to 12/1/06 high 91.42) but I'm not sure why a huge move is expected.


I actually bought some TLT yesterday at 86.85 (great buy yesterday - not so good today) to invest excess cash when the bond yield of TLT went over 5%.
 
Quote from steve46:

Now for those who think they know where it is going. Here is the daily chart.
As can be seen, the market has tried twice to move through the 1530 area and been turned away.
Some may think this is a signal for a top. What I think is that this only shows that the big boys havent decided yet whether to mobilize the capital necessary to mark it up. Also there is a time limit within which, if none of the size players step up to move it, then someone will step in to sell it down.

It may come down to a question of whether the big players have had time to unwind and raise capital, or whether the short players have enough horsepower to take it south. Typically the big boys (Goldy, Merrill, etc) are defending and sweeping the deck. Then the programs and specs are trying to turn the ship around in the process take profits. Banks are on the side of the big boys and are supporting the continued move up. However many of them have unwound their positions and are on the sidelines now waiting.
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Maybe this is the dreaded King Kong foot wave referred to.
 
Quote from Jaxon:

apex, could you elaborate a bit on the setup you see in TLT? I see a .618 retracement at 86.09 (5/12/06 low 82.56 to 12/1/06 high 91.42) but I'm not sure why a huge move is expected.


I actually bought some TLT yesterday at 86.85 (great buy yesterday - not so good today) to invest excess cash when the bond yield of TLT went over 5%.
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I'm not sure if its about the size of the move, but more about the certainty? Could you elaborate Apex? I cant see a huge amount of money to be made buying the ETF unless you've got alot of captial. Does anyone know if theres a future that tracks this?
 
Quote from Jaxon:

apex, could you elaborate a bit on the setup you see in TLT? I see a .618 retracement at 86.09 (5/12/06 low 82.56 to 12/1/06 high 91.42) but I'm not sure why a huge move is expected.


I actually bought some TLT yesterday at 86.85 (great buy yesterday - not so good today) to invest excess cash when the bond yield of TLT went over 5%.
More...

I wont go into to much detail. But basically 2 overlapping 5 wave moves on daily and 15min overlapped with higher level weekly ABC after completing a daily 5 wave move as well as retracement and dual purpose trendline support. All of them packed into a .10 zone makes for a low risk high reward trade into a major trend reversal.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

I'm not sure if its about the size of the move, but more about the certainty? Could you elaborate Apex? I cant see a huge amount of money to be made buying the ETF unless you've got alot of captial. Does anyone know if theres a future that tracks this?
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I think a leverage play could be done at least two ways: via 10- or 30-year Treasury futures (TY or US), or by buying at- or out-of-the-money September or December call options on the TLT ETF.
 
Quote from apex82:

I wont go into to much detail. But basically 2 overlapping 5 wave moves on daily and 15min overlapped with higher level weekly ABC after completing a daily 5 wave move as well as retracement and dual purpose trendline support. All of them packed into a .10 zone makes for a low risk high reward trade into a major trend reversal.
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So does this mean I should hold off on my residential mortgage refi? :)
 
apex, thanks for the reply. Now I can spend some quality time studying TLT charts! Bond futures (ZB) track TLT pretty closely.

And now let us return to our regularly scheduled program! :)
 
dangerous situation today.

the world market upsurge giving upward bias, and bigboys sold it on the close, so to a certain degree they are caught.

they have to bring it down to 1527 area for a way out. When at the 1527 area if another whale decided to pound the stops at the low, then we can break. But this scenario is doubtful, since the long weekend is approaching.

But a test in 1527 area is probable. A 1527 test and 10 point rule brings us to 1537.

It has to test 1527 today, for any sustained move up to be possible.

Chris
 
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