ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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You need to do the math again.
In the 1x3 chart, each X and O represents 1 point (4 ticks), not 3 ticks. The "x3" means that it takes a 3-box (3-point) reversal to start a new column of Xs or Os.
In the longer-term 5x3 chart I posted earlier, each box (X or O) represents 5 points (20 ticks), and it also takes a 3-box (15-point) reversal to start a new column.
Now, you were saying...
I thought I would share an amazing trade setting up in the bonds. This is the type that can buy you that ferrari that you had your eye on or put your kids through college. Extremely low risk with very high reward with a very high probability. Of course, I always employ proper position sizing no matter how good the trade looks.
Amazing confluence on weekly, daily and lower level timeframe all coming together in the 86.06-86.20 area. I will definately be taking this trade with a daily reversal bar after getting to the zone. Kinda interesting how its making this structure with the markets poised to put in a short term top very soon.
-Apex
Amazing confluence on weekly, daily and lower level timeframe all coming together in the 86.06-86.20 area. I will definately be taking this trade with a daily reversal bar after getting to the zone. Kinda interesting how its making this structure with the markets poised to put in a short term top very soon.
-Apex
they have range bound the market till the cows come home, I'm looking at 4.4% on the 10 year in the future.
ultimately we should see 4%.
ultimately we should see 4%.
Here is my 60 min chart showing a new "line in the sand" at
1530.
I did take the short entry, but notice that the market is bracketed now. This means that it is auctioning up and down between levels, kind of oscillating around while people decide whether to mark it up, or sell it down.
1530.
I did take the short entry, but notice that the market is bracketed now. This means that it is auctioning up and down between levels, kind of oscillating around while people decide whether to mark it up, or sell it down.
I just spent my time on the throne reading a PnF reference . Im correcting myself. And mbusch, you aren't gonna like it. Sorry.
- VERTICAL count of a sell signal uses a multipler of reversal count -1. In this case, 3-1=2. So the target based on the vertical is 8x2= 16 ticks = 4 ES pts.
- There is a name for the pattern... Bearish Signal. Months were spent coming up with that. Simply, lower tops followed by lower low.
The book also provides statistical probabilities for patterns, based on DAILY market data. We are using INTRADAY, so this is not apples to apples...
In a BULL market. a BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSED with 92% probability of profit, average gain of 23.2%, over 2.5 months. FTR: in a bull market a bearish signal reversal has the highest % profitable, and takes the least amount of time. Next best is the coveted triple-top with 87.9% probability of profit over 6.8 months.
I just thought you should know. FWIW; Based on what I see in the chart AND what I think, I believe your trade will be just fine into the morning.
Osorico
were pretty close to the hourly trendy, durable good could be the umpf... for US to bounce up.
given the reaction in the bond market last couple days. The number might have been leaked already. Durable goods should come in strong tomm.
Either way, the selling has been done already in anticipation, so even a strong number, the bonds should rally. That should provide the conditions for the equities to rally too.
given the reaction in the bond market last couple days. The number might have been leaked already. Durable goods should come in strong tomm.
Either way, the selling has been done already in anticipation, so even a strong number, the bonds should rally. That should provide the conditions for the equities to rally too.
Now for those who think they know where it is going. Here is the daily chart.
As can be seen, the market has tried twice to move through the 1530 area and been turned away.
Some may think this is a signal for a top. What I think is that this only shows that the big boys havent decided yet whether to mobilize the capital necessary to mark it up. Also there is a time limit within which, if none of the size players step up to move it, then someone will step in to sell it down.
It may come down to a question of whether the big players have had time to unwind and raise capital, or whether the short players have enough horsepower to take it south. Typically the big boys (Goldy, Merrill, etc) are defending and sweeping the deck. Then the programs and specs are trying to turn the ship around in the process take profits. Banks are on the side of the big boys and are supporting the continued move up. However many of them have unwound their positions and are on the sidelines now waiting.
As can be seen, the market has tried twice to move through the 1530 area and been turned away.
Some may think this is a signal for a top. What I think is that this only shows that the big boys havent decided yet whether to mobilize the capital necessary to mark it up. Also there is a time limit within which, if none of the size players step up to move it, then someone will step in to sell it down.
It may come down to a question of whether the big players have had time to unwind and raise capital, or whether the short players have enough horsepower to take it south. Typically the big boys (Goldy, Merrill, etc) are defending and sweeping the deck. Then the programs and specs are trying to turn the ship around in the process take profits. Banks are on the side of the big boys and are supporting the continued move up. However many of them have unwound their positions and are on the sidelines now waiting.
chart show the thick long term linear regression of the trend. A trendline break already occurred but we moved higher. If 1520 doesnt hold then we move towards the long term regression which comes in at 1480.
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