yeah its not healthy staring at monitors all day. Gotta get out for some sun.
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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I might go buy my own lawnmower and cut the grass. I heard its therapeutic.
later folks .........
deja vu.
deja vu.
well..what happened so far?
the market has trained everyone to think that 1533-34 level is major resistance, so you will have position players entering shorts there with stops @36. This will provide major fuel for the leg up.
either way if the base components have the spot/cash market are looking toppy on the charts, then the index will have a hard time surmounting that level. Tonight I will have to look through some of the major components or leadership, to see if there is a divergence.
closing us @ 1525 today puts us pretty close to that 1520 level to test. With durable goods coming out, our range should be 1520-1530 tomm.
So the buyers @1520 should have a reasonable risk/reward given the time perspective(ie before long weekend). True selling wont appear till post weekend. So the market will be supported to a certain degree next two trading days.
The bond market has sold off considerably with yields on the 30 year testing 5%. The dollar has rallied in respect to Eur and GBP and JPY and CHF. The loonie at high end of the weekly chart.
You would have thought that post FED sentiment, which basically everyone has interpreted as interest rate cuts further down the road, the premium would be undercut in equities. But given the liquidity situation in the world, the equities have held up. The bond market reacted appropriately. The dollar rallied appropriately.
So given a unfriendly FED, will stocks be able to push higher? Yes. Stocks always find a reason.
the market has trained everyone to think that 1533-34 level is major resistance, so you will have position players entering shorts there with stops @36. This will provide major fuel for the leg up.
either way if the base components have the spot/cash market are looking toppy on the charts, then the index will have a hard time surmounting that level. Tonight I will have to look through some of the major components or leadership, to see if there is a divergence.
closing us @ 1525 today puts us pretty close to that 1520 level to test. With durable goods coming out, our range should be 1520-1530 tomm.
So the buyers @1520 should have a reasonable risk/reward given the time perspective(ie before long weekend). True selling wont appear till post weekend. So the market will be supported to a certain degree next two trading days.
The bond market has sold off considerably with yields on the 30 year testing 5%. The dollar has rallied in respect to Eur and GBP and JPY and CHF. The loonie at high end of the weekly chart.
You would have thought that post FED sentiment, which basically everyone has interpreted as interest rate cuts further down the road, the premium would be undercut in equities. But given the liquidity situation in the world, the equities have held up. The bond market reacted appropriately. The dollar rallied appropriately.
So given a unfriendly FED, will stocks be able to push higher? Yes. Stocks always find a reason.
Hi mbusch. I'll give it go...
The break by itself suggests 7-9 boxes not points, down. This is a 1x3, so 8(boxes)x3ticks = 24 ticks = 6 ES pts. Determined by the VERTICAL box count of the zone being broken.
There is another possibility. A double-top. In my view this is NOT a double-top. Also in PnF, double-tops are way more common than the preferred, triple-top. Talking PnF here, not time based charts!! Interestingly enough, the target based on a double top is a minimum of 6 ES points, but 18 ES points to fulfill the pattern. Based on the HORIZONTAL box count top-to-top. So again we have 8x3=24 ticks, the first target. Fullfillment is target1 x3, 24x3=72 ticks = 18 ES points.
You now possess 75% of my PnF usage knowledge. It's might even be correct. :eek: Maybe an expert can verify or correct this analysis for pedantic accuracy.
I think we should start a "Lost Art" thread for PnF discussion.
Osorico
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