ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from jagmot:

Saxon,

Great job on making lots of $$$! I am definitely envious of profits like that. I consider a huge day for myself at 20 ES points total/ $1000 per day (not per lot).

I am still however concerned that your trading style is incorrect. In order for you to make big profits, you need to actually be initially wrong in your trade so that you can get more contracts and load up at lower prices. Is this correct?

From your above post (this is obviously somewhat hypothetical) but it looks like all you did is go long at 1475, then 1474, then 1473, etc and finally make your last buy at 1462 (14 contracts). You end up needing the market to rally back to 1468.5 to breakeven. So even with avg down, you needed to make up 7 points per contract in order to make 1 pt per contract.

This is not a sound trading style as you can look back in history and see days where the market went either straight up or straight down. You could make money 99.9% of days but one day the market won't come back and you will lose.

Here is a high profile example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson
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I've been wondering this myself. The market has moved explosively in one sustained move for an outlier amount many times in the past - the Fed made unexpected rate hikes or cuts in the middle of the trading day. It literally ends trading careers and bankrupts people.

What are we missing Saxon? Aren't you concerned about how a strategy based on averaging the wrong way into your position will, eventually, end up with them taking you out on a stretcher?

Don't give away your secrets, but can you please elaborate.........
 
Quote from 2006:

Stop worrying about others and worry about yourselves.

The market will let him know if he's doing something wrong.
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Sorry in advance if this is somewhat off topic

I guess because I wish someone was there when I started trading. I started trading in 98 and watched as my Yahoo stock went from 75 (split adjusted) to around 250 and just miss my sell order, which was greedy to try to get over such a round number (it was 500 pre split, I should ahve been in at 499 at least or pref 494). I didn't know trailing stops or anything like that and didn't understand that the earnings were non-GAAP as well.

At least it was a small amount of capital. I managed to get out at 32 (split adjusted) before it eventually bottomed at 8. I still look back and can't believe I held for that long, but anyways. Saxon has said in recent posts that he sold his RE in NYC so we know he is playhing with a lot more to lose.
 
Quote from jagmot:

Same here, most profitable day in 3 months. I'd list the trades here (after the fact obviously) but no point as I'm sure a bunch of people will just call out bs. I will list the current trade I have on...

I am currently holding 1 ES lot long at 1480.50, bought at almost the close (3:54) for Cisco's conference call. Target 1489.50 and now i've moved stop to 1481.50. Previous stop was 1474.25 so not great on R/R but was fairly confident cisco was going to have good earnings/guidance.

All caught up with the forums!
Now going to listen to Cisco's earnings call and call it a day.
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Out of trade at 1485.50 (mkt currently 1486.25) +5 on 1 lot. I'm probably going to regret this tomorrow but oh well. I've been super busy catching up since I got back from my trip and I'm feeling sick (probably from the plane trip back). Got to take care of my health first.
 
Yesterday 1490 was a great call and I closed some positions for profit

I have some more which I would like to close at 1500.

Do you think we might reach this level. Thanks
 
Went long in AH at 1483.50.
Just closed out position at 1492.75 for +9.25.
Preparing to go short for at least close-the-gap to 1482.
 
Quote from mbusch:

Went long in AH at 1483.50.
Just closed out position at 1492.75 for +9.25.
Preparing to go short for at least close-the-gap to 1482.
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Playing the short here as well, but on YM @ 13639, looking for a reversal around 1500 on the ES.
 
Quote from wave:

Next stop 1502.50. She's setting up for a nice downmove.
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"Smart Money" almost done. Short above 1502.50. Next buy area 1465-1460. Look for double top to initiate short.
 
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