ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[jagmot]

Quote from saxon22:

Up over 2k today - 43 points total(Friday). Doing well. Had my first 10k day this week.
Like I said as long as one does not get greedy and is happy with 1 pt per contract going countertrend, there is money to be made even in market like this. I was going long and was in 14 contracts at the average price of 1468. I sold it at 1470.5 at around 11:15. I know, there was more $$$$ on the table and ES went all the way to 1474 10 minutes into lunch, but with the market being wounded the way it is, I took my $$$$$$ and run early.
I no longer post my live calls and keep my comments to myself unless somebody mentions my handle. This way I get a lot less PMs from other traders and give less ammunition to doubters.
I found out that I learn more by reading than by posting here.
Cheers and happy trading to all.

Saxon,

Great job on making lots of $$$! I am definitely envious of profits like that. I consider a huge day for myself at 20 ES points total/ $1000 per day (not per lot).

I am still however concerned that your trading style is incorrect. In order for you to make big profits, you need to actually be initially wrong in your trade so that you can get more contracts and load up at lower prices. Is this correct?

From your above post (this is obviously somewhat hypothetical) but it looks like all you did is go long at 1475, then 1474, then 1473, etc and finally make your last buy at 1462 (14 contracts). You end up needing the market to rally back to 1468.5 to breakeven. So even with avg down, you needed to make up 7 points per contract in order to make 1 pt per contract.

This is not a sound trading style as you can look back in history and see days where the market went either straight up or straight down. You could make money 99.9% of days but one day the market won't come back and you will lose.

Here is a high profile example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson

 

[jagmot]

Quote from wave:

I will stop posting my live trades. I think someone's been piggybacking off the calls and charging for them. No call today from me and neither from the piggybacker. hmmm. You know who you are. I would post you the website showing the calls 2 minutes after my posts, but I won't. He won't last anyway.

That is why I have been hesitant to post my stops on my RT trades.

 

[atticus]

Quote from jagmot:

Saxon,

Great job on making lots of $$$! I am definitely envious of profits like that. I consider a huge day for myself at 20 ES points total/ $1000 per day (not per lot).

I am still however concerned that your trading style is incorrect. In order for you to make big profits, you need to actually be initially wrong in your trade so that you can get more contracts and load up at lower prices. Is this correct?

From your above post (this is obviously somewhat hypothetical) but it looks like all you did is go long at 1475, then 1474, then 1473, etc and finally make your last buy at 1462 (14 contracts). You end up needing the market to rally back to 1468.5 to breakeven. So even with avg down, you needed to make up 7 points per contract in order to make 1 pt per contract.

This is not a sound trading style as you can look back in history and see days where the market went either straight up or straight down. You could make money 99.9% of days but one day the market won't come back and you will lose.

Here is a high profile example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson

Sorry, been away from the thread, but am I to understand that he ADDED at one point with 14 contracts and ended the day up $2,000? That's deplorable performance. No offense Sax, but you'll be lucky to last the year. I missed my best set-up at 146750 due to the kids, but a two lot swing at my signal would've equalled that performance with risk on a two lot. Not blowing my horn, it's just an example. Saxon, you're driving blind.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from wave:

Yesterday I considered you an idiot, today your an idiot inside a moron. Congratulations on your promotion!

Haven't seen DM post anything useful yet either. There is still hope for you however because you haven't been a jerk about it IMO.

What you need to do is spend some time and figure out what wave is saying. His comment might not make sense for a minute or two but you should be able to understand most of his comments. Then its your choice whether you want to use his advice to form your market opinion.

Do you really think Bob Dylan is talking about a tamborine man in his song???

Wave - thx for all your comments.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from wave:

Who bought 65's and under?

I did manage to get 1 lot at 1461.50...but I average in on Fed days as the market moves so much on the announcement. I got my other 2 lots at 1471 and 1466. (My fourth lot was 1456 which I obviously didn't get) while my stop was at 1448.75)

I got scared out of the trade and also really liked the P&L and sold them all at 1474.50 even though my system still said buy.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Quote from jagmot:

That is why I have been hesitant to post my stops on my RT trades.

Lol, yeah I imagine thousands are trolling this thread to steal trading signals.....

Let's not get overboard here. If you are picking specific points of support and resistance which hold up, don't you think there are a lot of big traders out there who see the same thing you do? In fact S/R only works if many traders see the same thing. So I imagine if you see similar trades elsewhere it is because many are keying in on the same S/R levels and trading them.

If you go long and post the entry in RT and people piggy back on it then they are helping your trade possibly although ES is too deep for some ET readers to affect the price.

If someone is copying posts to charge for them then simply out them here if it is true.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from JSSPMK:

TY! Made some, lost some, came out on top in the end. Today was a brill day, over 220 pts total gross benefit (average 3 lots per position).

Same here, most profitable day in 3 months. I'd list the trades here (after the fact obviously) but no point as I'm sure a bunch of people will just call out bs. I will list the current trade I have on...

I am currently holding 1 ES lot long at 1480.50, bought at almost the close (3:54) for Cisco's conference call. Target 1489.50 and now i've moved stop to 1481.50. Previous stop was 1474.25 so not great on R/R but was fairly confident cisco was going to have good earnings/guidance.

All caught up with the forums!
Now going to listen to Cisco's earnings call and call it a day.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from atticus:

Sorry, been away from the thread, but am I to understand that he ADDED at one point with 14 contracts and ended the day up $2,000? That's deplorable performance. No offense Sax, but you'll be lucky to last the year. I missed my best set-up at 146750 due to the kids, but a two lot swing at my signal would've equalled that performance with risk on a two lot. Not blowing my horn, it's just an example. Saxon, you're driving blind.

I'm not saying that is exactly what he did, but that is what his system looks like it does. Basically keep adding till you get that reversal for a few points and you've avg down far enough. Fortuantely it looks like he stopped mid day with enough profits, because if he had gone long again the two small bounces in the last hour of the day would not have been enough to get him back to be.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from optioncoach:

Lol, yeah I imagine thousands are trolling this thread to steal trading signals.....

Let's not get overboard here. If you are picking specific points of support and resistance which hold up, don't you think there are a lot of big traders out there who see the same thing you do? In fact S/R only works if many traders see the same thing. So I imagine if you see similar trades elsewhere it is because many are keying in on the same S/R levels and trading them.

If you go long and post the entry in RT and people piggy back on it then they are helping your trade possibly although ES is too deep for some ET readers to affect the price.

If someone is copying posts to charge for them then simply out them here if it is true.

Agree you want people to piggyback your trade so that the market moves in your direction. What I don't want to do is give people too much insight on where I've placed my stops not because they are going to 'get me' ... I'm way too small of a fish to bother, but it gives people ideas on where traders like myself are putting their stops out and collectively we are big enough.

It shouldn't take long to figure out what most of my signals are by now, or at least my primary signal is. I don't have any proprietary signals that I've created, just some signals that are well know that I use in conjunction to make money.

 

[Spectre2007]

extracting inefficiencies on rare opportune occassions. =)

or fear and greed.