ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[wave]

Quote from wave:

I don't know times. 1490-1502.50 very likely today. Look for volatile downdraft from there.

Next stop 1502.50. She's setting up for a nice downmove.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from BoyBrutus:

hmm, interesting, so you two are looking at the same thing eh?

Yes, the ES.

But he made money, i lost money (on that trade).

 

[wave]

Nice trading gents.

 

[mbusch]

Quote from wave:

Next stop 1502.50. She's setting up for a nice downmove.

I agree with the latter, but I'm having a hard time seeing us get above the high at 1494.75. I'm already seeing the beginnings of RSI divergence, and I suspect we may just starting the right soulder of a H&S whose peak will be lower than the 1494.75 peak.

OTOH, your batting average is damned near 100%, so it makes me nervous disagreeing with you.

P.S. I'm not short yet, so I'd love you to be right about 1502.50!

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from Jaxon:

What did you not like and what would you have preferred to see ?

the statement was pretty much inline with previous statements. The FED is rock solid in their behavioral patterns, no surprises. I would have preferred they start cutting rates or intimating that they will soon, and there is no overt statement to that effect. Irrespective of the statement, you can see what the MM's are capable of doing. The major risk for the bear thrusts is done, no its just taking out stops to the upside to make momentous push down. Similar the the stop clearing for the bulls on the way up, it tends to shakeoff as many people as possible before the final directional move is taken. This way it ends up stranding people at different price points, who are frozen with inaction and next thing is a margin call.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from JSSPMK:

On the other hand it could well be a trap, we have had weeks of successive dip buying, my view is that we will see more red across the board. 240 minute chart on FDAX CAN be viewed as bearish, due to a potential 3 failure swing (completing a bear flag), S&P's weekly divergence hasn't played out to the full yet also.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1553899>

Great call, hope you made a ton of money last Friday!

 

[Spectre2007]

http://www.worldrg.com/showConference.cfm?confCode=FW07079&trackingID=Trader

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from jagmot:

Great call, hope you made a ton of money last Friday!

TY! Made some, lost some, came out on top in the end. Today was a brill day, over 220 pts total gross benefit (average 3 lots per position).

 

[mbusch]

Quote from mbusch:

I agree with the latter, but I'm having a hard time seeing us get above the high at 1494.75. I'm already seeing the beginnings of RSI divergence, and I suspect we may just starting the right soulder of a H&S whose peak will be lower than the 1494.75 peak.

OTOH, your batting average is damned near 100%, so it makes me nervous disagreeing with you.

P.S. I'm not short yet, so I'd love you to be right about 1502.50!

I stand corrected. I just re-did my analysis and I can definitely see Wave's scenario tomorrow (final thrust to 1502.50 followed by a sharp downmove). It's even possible that the move up will happen overnight, in which case tomorrow's RTH could bring a close-the-gap down, retest up, and big move down. It probably won't be a dull day.

 

[Spectre2007]

state of 60 minute.