ES Journal - 2023/2024

Double bottom? Really?

Sold two extra contracts on this pop and will stop out entire position at B/E. Will probably be happy to take it off for 14 points if I can get it.

I may have gotten too greedy and slow to take profits on this one as it was twice well in the money.

I can see another pop above my stop. If that gets sold, I may re-enter short, but at this point it looks like a reversal is possible as well. Not sure I'll play any more if stopped here.

EDIT: Okay. Moving stop 2 ticks just in case.

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Hard to believe S&P was trading at low 1000 not that long ago, but I have proof in case anyone don't believe it. :)

Yes, that's a picture taken with a cell phone and not an actual screen grab.

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mervyn said:
Opened short. 10 stocks holding up the entire market is not normal.
More...

Cool post from Lawrence Chan about this:

This Friday option expiration stayed in tight range pinned at the SPX 4200. It is clear that bears who tried to time this market top who are overleveraged are now cleansed from the game. They are not wrong per se based on broad measurements of the stock market. However they failed to take into account that Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both market capitalization weighted (in greatly simplified terms). Hence all it takes is a few stock market leaders going higher will power up the indices when 90% or more of the components are going nowhere.

As I pointed out in my newsletter for my premium members, bears need to understand that it is wrong to think the chart is telling them that the indices are going lower. The charts are telling them that the indices are venerable to steep correction should anything really bad happens. As long as such event has not happened, the slow climb can continue just like year 1999.

Another round of opposite views of the markets – a bear and a bull. As usual I do not necessary agree with their point of views. But then it is useful to see why the bulls and the bears do not agree with each other even though they are looking at the same damn set of information.

Here is a very educational video on how the major participants operate in the financial markets really dictates the way these markets move. If Mike Green is correct, the future of financial markets will change drastically in coming months.

Found an interesting channel talking about history from a different perspective. Enjoy!

As usual I have to keep working even for a Canadian long weekend because US holidays do not always line up. This week is one of those.

Have a great weekend all!

https://thelawrencechan.com/tlc-weekly-update-may-20-2023/
 
Master Pu said:
Cool post from Lawrence Chan about this:
More...

Thanks.

Do you follow Lawrence beyond his free blog updates?

Not sure how long you been around (you may have had a prior nick), but LC was quite actually active on ET in the past and even posted quite a bit in the ES Journal. Very nice guy. I picked up some interesting stuff from him when I was first starting out. He had a free trading room, but everything is behind a paywall now it seems.

I seem to recall him being a bit of a doom-and-gloom kind of guy back in the day. Suggesting the financial system as we knew it would break down completely. I'll stand corrected if I recall incorrectly.
 
Last full week of May coming up. Barring any news shocks, I'd say we move higher or consolidate up here for next week.

Friday looks like a weak dip to me.

ES have an open gap at 4288,50 from August 18th last year. 4283,74 on SPX. That's not even 2 % up from here.

I don't see why we can't go up there on this current up leg. :)

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