ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
But it is so much fun to start with a small account and build it up by compounding returns, of course it can blow up if you were to hit a negative streak, but on the flip side, returns can be huge. Have you tried it?
This definitely goes back to my comment on 2D vs. 4D analysis. But the reality is that you can still make money and be a good trader with only a 2D perspective if you have great discipline. We're all going to look at the market a little differently with different approaches, time frames and risk tolerances.
Are you still holding your long, though?
What I want to add to the analysis that I posted is that I'm not making any predictions with this kind of analysis. It's more of a visual or summary of where the market's at and where we might be going.
I also forgot to add that we should still keep in mind that September is statistically the weakest month of the year.
Could you elaborate on 2D vs 4D?
It's not clear to me what the difference is or what either are.
Thank you.
Yep, long trade is still there.
2D analysis is your basic market analysis, most of which is publicly available. 4D analysis is where you have done enough deep work and research where you can see the market in unique ways, and being able to do that may also depend on the way a person's brain works and processes information. A lot of people aren't willing to question their beliefs and assumptions in order to look at the market this way. But being able to see the market in 4D doesn't necessarily make you a better trader because it's like driving a performance sports car -- not everyone can handle the power and learn how to control it. And being a great analyst and being a greater trader are different skill sets. So most folks are basically driving a Honda Civic and some learn to drive it really well. And what's great about that is that it's reliable and only requires basic maintenance. Another way I think about it is taking the blue pill vs. the red pill (in the Matrix). But if you take the red pill and go down that road, it's more difficult and longer but you see stuff in the market that few can see.
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I see.
I'm still not piecing together how this ties into my question to B1S2 where I asked him of the significance of this weekly bar and you replied with how "This definitely goes back to my comment on 2D vs. 4D analysis..." The implication could be perceived that you knew something more based on your 4D analysis, but I may be misinterpreting you.
As for analysis and information, I think people make use of the same information differently. Two people may have access to the same thing (publicly available information), but analyze and act on it differently. That's where skill and experience comes into play.
There's definitely a big difference between being an analyst and a trader. No disagreement there.
Sorry -- didn't mean to be so cryptic. This isn't a criticism -- just that, for me, the monthly / weekly closes that B1S2 uses is pretty much in the 2D category. That being said, from what I can tell, B1S2 is successful using them. But you're not going to catch all the turning points with them because you're looking for confirmation in price action only. The folks using 4D had shifted back to long at the end of last week or earlier in this week and/or at least knew that pushing the short side was no longer an appropriate reward / risk. Related to this, one of the guys in my trading room is very systematic / trend driven and is successful with it. He closed his ES short (entered on 8/23 at 4131.25) on 9/8 at 4003. For me, however, I was convinced this week was long and was confident the pullback on 9/8 to around 3950 was last chance to close short and get long. But like I have always said, if you make money and manage your risk, I don't care how you do it -- could be astro for all I care. But I know that a lot of folks are going to see the market differently than I do -- and that's OK.