ES Journal - 2021/2022

schizo said:
If my analysis is correct, we should retrace back down to the May low before the end of the month (provided we reverse here, which does sound iffy :)).
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Well if anyone cares about what I think, I expect 4300 with a possible retest of gap just below. But then I am not saying I will necessarily hold till 4300, depends on price action, my interpretation of it :)
 
I was just noting that a pull-back to 4025 area isn't out of the question.

@schizo -- i guess that's what I get for just putting that out there. It was just a component of my analysis (not the entire analysis) but the reason for doing it is that I have found that there are other indicators that can not only confirm but also smooth out the trends.

Laissez Faire said:
Last week was a big up week. My weekly and daily model suggests tomorrow might be a consolidation day. If we open with a bigger gap down I will probably buy it, but if not, it might be a churning day with not much happening.

In terms of the weekly cycle, I think we should know by Tuesday what's going to happen, i.e., going higher or failure to break out of last week's range with a reversion back into last week's range targeting at least the mid-point.

We do have that open gap @ 4022,75 from Thursday's Close which might be a target for a pullback lower.
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Wall Street smells a beat of the inflation #’s this week. Bears loaded to Pluto short for “ the worst month “ . Ukraine kicking Russia’s ass now . Perfect setup . If inflation misses Katy bar the door .I’ve noticed my delicious shrimp Fajitas I eat 2 times a month are the same price the last 5 months.
 
It is funny to watch the TA versus FA arguments. A legislative or geopolitical event an render a trend moot, even if price takes a day or two to respond. Strong fundamentals will not translate into a immediate bullish trend if investors are apathetic. A bearish trend along with bearish fundamentals can end in a minute if the Fed announces they will now have an accommodative monetary policy. Profitable reversion to mean trading signals can be the opposite of technical signals. A small scalper utilizing level II is not likely to trade against indications of large supply even if the stock is strong intraday until that supply seems to be exhausted, although it is also true that evidence of large supply often presents itself at typical resistance levels such as the previous day’s high.

I still remember the day in 2009 when the bear market ended. One of the financial news reporters was interviewing a floor trader. The floor trader said along the lines of “If you are not seeing capitulation now, you never will”. There are lots of different trading methodologies and time frames that can be profitable or unprofitable, depending on the trader. We as traders must strive to become more than a mainstream trading methodology.
 
Those who bought the gap open, or those who were overly optimistic because we gapped open, I hate to break it to ya but that's not how the market works. :( Don't let the smarties fool ya.

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schizo said:
Those who bought the gap open, or those who were overly optimistic because we gapped open, I hate to break it to ya but that's not how the market works. :( Don't let the smarties fool ya.
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I don't have the data on this as I don't track overnight statistics, but by experience I can say that those Sunday night gaps pretty much always fill at least by end of week.

A few weeks ago people seemed "too bearish". Now, people seem "too bullish".

Should be interesting to see how this and next week plays out.
 
Laissez Faire said:
I don't have the data on this as I don't track overnight statistics, but by experience I can say that those Sunday night gaps pretty much always fill at least by end of week.

A few weeks ago people seemed "too bearish". Now, people seem "too bullish".

Should be interesting to see how this and next week plays out.
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Regarding your "too bullish" comment, I don't see it that way. I expect that many are sceptical of being bullish in a month that is statistically meant to be the worst performing month. Therefore, I believe that this current upswing will continue to try and tag 4,300, possibly breaching it and then we would have FOMO coming into the market and that is where I see SPX tanking back to 3,880 and that is where will be the deciding turning point for 2023, we either continue to my target of 3,505 or put in a double bottom and off we go to the ATH and beyond.


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