ES Journal - 2014

austinp said:
No advice for you in ES which is uber range-bound right now, so good luck with that. But CL is highly tradable, just a different way of managing trades than in times past. What works now is completely different than what I used to do in the past, circa 2012 - 13 versus now. :cool:
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:cool:
 
austinp said:
One thing you can do to stop some bleeding right now and forever: quit trying to trend-trade crude oil with -100 cent initial stops. CL does not consistently trend any more like it did prior to late 2012 Dodd-Frank act. Now it is all algo slams with congestive chop followed by abrupt price explosions either direction.

I've evolved to using -5 cent initial stops, scratch the chop trades and aggressively exit profitable trades. That, and quit for the day when up enough.

No advice for you in ES which is uber range-bound right now, so good luck with that. But CL is highly tradable, just a different way of managing trades than in times past. What works now is completely different than what I used to do in the past, circa 2012 - 13 versus now. :cool:
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Yeah, CL is a nightmare these days. I reckon i'm net down trading it this year. Just smashed up 1.5 dollars for some reason (fortunately I wasn't in it). The action in CL is really intraday, not position trading

Anyway, thanks for the advice, I will look into it further. May have some questions for you.
 
Visaria said:
Chill, guys, we're all mates here :cool:


Tiddlywinks, the reason why i have had a drawdown is because of losing trades, nothing to do with overnight margin rates. TBH, i don't even know what the margin rates are.
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Visaria said:
I was up massively for the funds i manage in the 1st two weeks of this month....sadly i've had 12 losing trades since which have wiped out virtually all the gains, so doing the right thing now by cutting position size:
:(
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Wow, what can I say. I don't know of any funds or traders that do not know or care about the amount of money encumbered in existing positions, overnight and/or intraday. Sorry for offering proven, but very pedestrian advise to look at your per trade and overall money management as a way to combat those massive wipe out drawdowns. My bad.
Trade On!
 
But in your post, you were talking about margin rates, specifically the overnight rate. I don't understand what that has to do with anything. I have plenty of funds in the broker account to take care of that, I don't use much leverage on trades (max is 2x and most of the time i'm underleveraged) in relation to the total funds i manage (not to be confused with how much is in the broker account).
 
Visaria said:
But in your post, you were talking about margin rates, specifically the overnight rate. I don't understand what that has to do with anything. I have plenty of funds in the broker account to take care of that, I don't use much leverage on trades (max is 2x and most of the time i'm underleveraged) in relation to the total funds i manage (not to be confused with how much is in the broker account).
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Bro, he is a man U fan and he heard you are a man city fan. That's why he's so mad.
 
Visaria said:
But in your post, you were talking about margin rates, specifically the overnight rate. I don't understand what that has to do with anything. I have plenty of funds in the broker account to take care of that, I don't use much leverage on trades (max is 2x and most of the time i'm underleveraged) in relation to the total funds i manage (not to be confused with how much is in the broker account).
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I have no idea how you compute a max 2x leverage. We are talking about futures. I suppose a rule of thumb could be 15x full margin per contract as being 100% of nominal value. But that has no bearing on loss, as possible loss is always greater than 100% of account value regardless of account value or margin requirements.

Anyway, you first posted you took reduced size @52. Then you added @42. I pointed out that using unrealized gains to add contracts should fit the type of trading with significance given to margin requirements needed for the type of trading (overnight vs intraday). But without knowing how much or what percentage of an account is encumbered in existing positions, unrealized or realized has no meaning. Just go all-in all the time, every time.
 
I use the nominal value of the contract multiplied by the number of contract divided the the funds under management. E.g. say i sold 4 contracts of TF at 1152, the nominal value is $115,200 x 4 = $460,800. Assuming I am managing $1m, I am not leveraged...only using 46% of my funds. If i was managing $100k, then i would be leveraged 460%. The amount of margin i would need in the broker account is , i don't know, probably equates to 5% of nominal and double that for overnight (i'm guessing).

Now as you point out you have to take into account existing positions...but that is another can of worms. I don't have any other positions bar TF atm.
 
actionzip54 said:
Chelsea?!?!?!?!?

Don't worry tiddlywinks. This guy just enjoys the taste of failure.


:p
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I wouldn't say the method is failure(unlike Chelsea) but there is no way possible anyone with a modicum of investment intelligence would put 100k in a managed futures account and bear the risk of futures for the reward of (maybe) one (actively managed w/turn over) index contract. Better to listen to Cramer and buy some stocks in a cash retirement account.

Maybe it's just Visaria has been reading and studying posts by emg.
 
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