I was just making a joke. I don't give two balls what he does or doesn't do.
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ES Journal - 2014
- Thread starter murica
- Start date
I was just making a joke. I don't give two balls what he does or doesn't do.
I wouldn't say the method is failure(unlike Chelsea) but there is no way possible anyone with a modicum of investment intelligence would put 100k in a managed futures account and bear the risk of futures for the reward of (maybe) one (actively managed w/turn over) index contract. Better to listen to Cramer and buy some stocks in a cash retirement account.
Maybe it's just Visaria has been reading and studying posts by emg.
emg is a good bloke actually. tells it as it is.
What's the risk of futures versus stocks?
One thing you can do to stop some bleeding right now and forever: quit trying to trend-trade crude oil with -100 cent initial stops. CL does not consistently trend any more like it did prior to late 2012 Dodd-Frank act. Now it is all algo slams with congestive chop followed by abrupt price explosions either direction.
It's not algos, it's just that cl is reacting to geopolitical news, of which there is a lot lately. Explains the choppiness and the abrupt price explosions.
It's not algos, it's just that cl is reacting to geopolitical news, of which there is a lot lately. Explains the choppiness and the abrupt price explosions.
Yes, indeed it is the algos. I'm not talking about price behavior the past few weeks... but the past few years in general.
Over in the CL thread you stated this year is a net-loss for you in CL trading so far. My suggestions are in response to that. You will never profit from attempts to catch large directional swings using -100 cent stops... you will just keep burning money. That is a failed approach. Price generally makes more of those 100+ cent sideways rips than it does 200 - 500 cent directional swings. You will get eaten alive at -$1,000 per contract in the wide, sideways noise. Just like your account has proven to you so far in 2014.
Now the good news is, unlike comatose ES intraday ranges, CL makes a number of directional drives most days. You can learn to get in front of the algos, effectively make those front-running HFTs your bitches. Let them do the work for you. Small stops in front of key S/R zones is the secret. Not market profile or vwap or any of that arbitrary crap.
Yes, indeed it is the algos. I'm not talking about price behavior the past few weeks... but the past few years in general.
Over in the CL thread you stated this year is a net-loss for you in CL trading so far. My suggestions are in response to that. You will never profit from attempts to catch large directional swings using -100 cent stops... you will just keep burning money. That is a failed approach. Price generally makes more of those 100+ cent sideways rips than it does 200 - 500 cent directional swings. You will get eaten alive at -$1,000 per contract in the wide, sideways noise. Just like your account has proven to you so far in 2014.
Now the good news is, unlike comatose ES intraday ranges, CL makes a number of directional drives most days. You can learn to get in front of the algos, effectively make those front-running HFTs your bitches. Let them do the work for you. Small stops in front of key S/R zones is the secret. Not market profile or vwap or any of that arbitrary crap.
nah, it's just cl has become more news sensitive. look at today's spike, caused by fresh sanctions against russia.
Yes, indeed it is the algos. I'm not talking about price behavior the past few weeks... but the past few years in general.
Over in the CL thread you stated this year is a net-loss for you in CL trading so far. My suggestions are in response to that. You will never profit from attempts to catch large directional swings using -100 cent stops... you will just keep burning money. That is a failed approach. Price generally makes more of those 100+ cent sideways rips than it does 200 - 500 cent directional swings. You will get eaten alive at -$1,000 per contract in the wide, sideways noise. Just like your account has proven to you so far in 2014.
Now the good news is, unlike comatose ES intraday ranges, CL makes a number of directional drives most days. You can learn to get in front of the algos, effectively make those front-running HFTs your bitches. Let them do the work for you. Small stops in front of key S/R zones is the secret. Not market profile or vwap or any of that arbitrary crap.
This, I have to agree.
This aint your daddy cl anymore. Theres no more traditional PA trending move. Its bots vs bots
anyone else trading ES options?
anyone have insight on these contracts.. seems to have decent liquidity for near month ATM strikes.. I made a couple profitable trades last week and now wondering why even trade ES outright
I been trading options on futures a good while mainly as hedges, but starting several months ago have started trading ETF/stock/futures options as a way of not needing to watch screen all day. I tend to Swing trade these. I can get in/out much better in futures, day trading, than options and often times I am getting one tick whereas getting in/out of options quickly doesn't always happen and sometimes the options will go other way briefly from the futures, this happens often in ETFs/stocks. Market makers really turn on the screws occassionally.
btw, i sold more TF on Friday at 1140.4
So let's see...
Day 1 -- Short @1152 (approx)
Day 1 CLOSING PRICE (approx) 1142
Day 2 -- Add Short @1142 (approx)
Day 2 - Add Short @1140 (approx)
Day 2 CLOSING PRICE (approx) 1140
So between the closing of Day 1 and closing of Day 2 your UNrealized gain increased approx 20%, but your market exposure and funds usage increased by at least 200%, assuming only 1 contract per add. 10x the UNrealized gain benefit. Additionally, the increased metrics were initiated just in time for a weekend holding period.
All in all, you took on a significant increase in market risk and tied up substantially more portfolio funds for a much less significant UNrealized gain. And you wonder why you gave back "massive" profits earlier this month?
BTW: saying you "add" to a position without the size of the add or the adjusted cost basis of the entire position is not meaningful.
I am commenting on trade/money management, not the trade itself. It is the managment that causes your give backs. Learn from it or don't.