Errors in the Hershey Futures Method

4XCzar, Magna is a serious and conscientious guy who wants that thread to remain pure as an educational service. So he deletes any questioning or OT posts. Other moderators, alas, do not extend the same courtesy to contrary threads elsewhere. They allow them to be polluted without moderation and in unseemly haste consign them to Chit-Chat gehenna. Stay tuned.
 
Thank you for posting, Jack. But don't forget to read my future post on Error #2. You might learn something about your own assumptions. That's an assumption of its own, of course. That you can learn.
 
Quote from the4xczar:

Quite simply, to put to bed that this method works... just show genuine p/l statements. I'm always open to new ideas. As a professional trader, I try to learn new things all the time because this is my livelihood - so I'd love to see some evidence in the validity of Jack's methods. I made a rather innocuous post on the Hershey thread not too long ago and it was promptly deleted within 15 mins.
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Please post your charts and prints in the journal. Several people there will be very happy to coach you through the six levels of trading.

If you wish, use other's performance as a measure of the transference of the approach.

New ideas abound in the financial industry.

Learning is usually unsuccessful for most aspiring traders.

Learning SCT is a process. If you adhere to the conventional orthodoxy, SCT trading is not for you. It is not possible to give up your contemporary beliefs, easily. You will always have them as reminders. At some point for most people, it is impossible to do "work arounds" for conventional orthodoxy beliefs that people have. It is easy to see why. For a great example of this impossibility you can read the collected posts of the many many detractors here in ET.

People who are used to trading large capital and with long experience (floor or otherwise) usually take days to get to the point of understanding: 1. seeing real time trading of SCT is real and 2. they have never seen, over their trading experience, such a demo. (Their considered opinions after a few days) Obviously, this is just a forum. However, it is my understanding that journals are conducted rather purposefully. If you have been doing okay, maybe you will get a call from someone who has been around our trading somewhere.
 
Quote from the4xczar:

Jack, will you or any of your followers post actual trades or brokerage statements? That would be powerful to back up your claims.
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Let's keep it simple.

You are characterizing what we do. How you did that is your business. Great you did it and you get to own it. Enjoy.

Power and being powerful fits into a heirarchy.

At the bottom is money. Above that is power. At the top is information.

I am not into power.

I (we) have nothing to backup. We aren't making claims. You are the claim oriented person. Keep it you own it; it is yours.

You now have tons of information available to you. You have the ability to work. You can conduct a learning process. We support people who work to carry out a learning process. We also expect people who learn SCT to pass it forward and to do as we do with money and time We contribute some to help solve local problems.

You are following a typical path of a type of person who can't "get it". As has been said before: "We don't care". We do not care if you do not take advantage of what is in front of you. This thread is devoted to knocking SCT. It is a lot of humor.

Here you see that I do not throw life preservers to anyone any more. That is over. I have a lot of work to do.

What is before the world today is to solve many pervasive global problems. There are now three pages of rows of exchanges throughoput the world on a list. (it is a list of monthly fees for trading each exchange). 24/7, SCT is done somewhere.

We extract capital from pools. We start and contribute to organizations that can solve problems anywhere in the world at this point. One person who observed real time trading with real money for a few days said: "You really do not tell anyone how much money you really make do you?" All of us knew why. This was a 9 digit trader.

Thank you for exchanging posts with me. Your suggestions are inappropriate and almost selfserving. It looks like you have elected out on undertaking the SCT learning process for your personal reasons.
 
There being no convincing refutation of the assertion of Error #1, I proceed to:

Error #2: "Up" Volume and "Down" Volume Ain't Always

Just as FTTs ain't always (their misinterpretation persists even after much patient coaching by Spydertrader), up volume ain't always up and down volume ain't always down. Who cares? SCT is based in no small measure on volume interpretation. Is this a big deal? No, but it exemplifies the near universal failure to question SCT's fundamental premises.

The following discussion may very well be idiosyncratic to NQ, and it certainly is specific to charting and analysis with E-Signal, which might be quirkier than other data providers. SCT traders tend to use the cheapest possible service, though, which E-Signal ain't, so I doubt it.

So we're SCTing. We tell our volume chart to color up volume green and down volume red.

First problem? The rule the chart uses is close greater than or equal to open is green, close less than open is red. So it doesn't color "unchanged", and biases the volume chart to green.

Second problem? It under reports volume. Why? Because it uses a simple algorithm that makes a trade at the bid a sell and a trade at the ask a buy. Alas, the real world isn't that tidy. There are trades above the ask, below the bid, and between the two. There are bids with no ask and ask with no bids. The data stream is leprous. So if you laboriously add up all the volume in T&S you will see that it is more than the volume reported in the bar.

Third problem? Why is the second problem a problem? Because the up/down volume decision often hangs on few contracts, even for a high volume bar. Since large trades often are the ones that don't pass the algorithm (they went "upstairs", got executed who knows when, and at an unknown relationship to the current bid/ask "downstairs"), a high volume bar can be miscolored. And a high volume unchanged bar WILL be miscolored.

The solution? At least create your own volume chart and color unchanged volume blue, say. You see interesting un-Hershean things when you do that. Ghosts on the parapet. The better solution few people on ET are up to coding.

This is absolutely true in one minute. Is it true in five minutes? Due your own do diligence. And it is an object lesson on the influence on higher level charts of events at the tick level. Macro vs. quantum. Tonal vs. nagual.
 
Jack, you certainly have a way w/words. I was merely asking that you show some validity that your "methods" work. A simple "yes" or "no" would have sufficed. My request was in no way "self -serving." Your refusal to do so speaks volumes. I wish you the best of luck in your endeavors.
 
You are so full of bologna it's laughable. Good humor.


Quote from jack hershey:

Let's keep it simple.

You are characterizing what we do. How you did that is your business. Great you did it and you get to own it. Enjoy.

Power and being powerful fits into a heirarchy.

At the bottom is money. Above that is power. At the top is information.

I am not into power.

I (we) have nothing to backup. We aren't making claims. You are the claim oriented person. Keep it you own it; it is yours.

You now have tons of information available to you. You have the ability to work. You can conduct a learning process. We support people who work to carry out a learning process. We also expect people who learn SCT to pass it forward and to do as we do with money and time We contribute some to help solve local problems.

You are following a typical path of a type of person who can't "get it". As has been said before: "We don't care". We do not care if you do not take advantage of what is in front of you. This thread is devoted to knocking SCT. It is a lot of humor.

Here you see that I do not throw life preservers to anyone any more. That is over. I have a lot of work to do.

What is before the world today is to solve many pervasive global problems. There are now three pages of rows of exchanges throughoput the world on a list. (it is a list of monthly fees for trading each exchange). 24/7, SCT is done somewhere.

We extract capital from pools. We start and contribute to organizations that can solve problems anywhere in the world at this point. One person who observed real time trading with real money for a few days said: "You really do not tell anyone how much money you really make do you?" All of us knew why. This was a 9 digit trader.

Thank you for exchanging posts with me. Your suggestions are inappropriate and almost selfserving. It looks like you have elected out on undertaking the SCT learning process for your personal reasons.
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Quote from Grob109:

Here is a word page. It covers the trades on another day and is just in draft form. There is just a sentence of two that explains it is a context. The description you used is about the same.

There are three levels: Perspective gets you to a place where you have market sentiment in hand. On persepctive A, B or C you use the IF 1 and If 2. A few words change according to A, B or C.

IF 1 says be alert if the price on the current bar passes the prior close going against you. Flag is up. If 2 says that when you pass the end of the bar going the wrong way reverse. this is not complex. most of the time things go along during the day.

But occasionally a situation comes up when you are STILL ON THE SAME BAR YOU ENTERED UPON. It turns out that right after entries is a screwy time for anyone. after you get past an entry bar things calm down. You have begun to make money and if you are normally intelligent you go with the trend to its end. Some people use targets for some reason; they must limit profits for a reason they thought up. I do not limit profits. I get on the next bar and even IF 1 is not being invoked usually.

But what if you get in on a bar and then......then the trade goes against you. This is what people like to do as "drawdown" . People have "drawdown" as part of their reasoning process for reasons they choose. Choosing to loose money is not to cool. It is part of some methods.

I choose to make money instead. If a person sits through drawdown and likes it, then he sees me sitting too and I am making money instead.

APA says when the price on the bar you entered on turns around and come back to your entry and is going the other direction, wash and reverse. It keeps going or it doesn't. After you reverse you go back to IF 1 and If 2. you will notice the close of the prior bar is always there. it is likely you will pass it making money. You smile. If you continue past the end of the bar you smile too. Both events make money. But if it goes by and comes back again, then you raise the IF 1 flag. If it goes out the end of the prior bar you reverse. ETC.

Notice all of this is within a bar's length and it is a cheap solution all the time. Notice it is on two levels at the most and one level usually.

If a person can not figure out he is passing a prior bar close the wrong way, that is a togh situation. If he can't see he isgoing past the end of the prior bar that is tough too. If he can't reverse with 20 contracts that is tough too. if he can't see the price turn against him and reverse (still 20 contracts), then that is tough too. These are the tough challenges of SCT. All of them that's all it is. The 5 min bars are the ones that work.

There is a big deal statistical reason why it works. That is the challenge for smart asses to figure out. LOL. Clue: do stats on the three levels if you find them and then do a family stat for all the fractals to optimize. Bingo.
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I'm still trying to figure out the old "APA - If1 - If2" method described above from 2003. I've been a miserable failure. I've ran after the Hershey carrot for years but never caught it :(
 
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