Achilles, I find value in charting trend lines in time frames that other traders use, whether they agree with the exact one minute trend line or not. I personally do not believe that higher order trend lines have any bearing whatsoever on one minute behavior, except insofar as that behavior reflects the actions of traders from higher time frames. For example, I think that drawing channels across days using RMH data only, as SCT does, is idiotic because it ignores crucial events in the aftermarket. But I am not a big believer in channels anyway except in certain very limited circumstances. I tend to use all the other classical TA that SCT ignores, but from which IMO it clearly could benefit. Thank you for your intelligent remarks.
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Errors in the Hershey Futures Method
- Thread starter Joe Doaks
- Start date
One thing that Jack Hershey said in a post somewhere here has helped my trading immensely. It was along the lines of just step back and take a look at how much the market is offering every day thru all the rises and falls. Then ask yourself how much of that are you getting? What things do you have to change to achieve that? How can I be more objective and open minded to actually look at what the market is doing on any given day? I am more helped by "big picture" things like that than I am by the detailed stuff. Others are helped by more detailed things. Whatever does it for you . . . go for it.
Jack, you are a great stright man, but I am not ready to talk about Error #3, "Always In". I have yet to treat of Error #2 "Uncertainty in Volume Bars", which the civil discourse here (with the exception of you) encourages me to proceed to do. My but we are touchy today. Your defensiveness makes me think to ask, with apologies to Fred Schwed, Jr., "Where are all the Hershey traders' yachts?" And I assure you that in this thread, any humor is unintentional. Your comments bring to the fore what I had intended to reserve as the punch line. That many of your adherents are insufficiently analytical, to the point of credulity, or even naivete. They do not question your basic assumptions, many of which have always bothered me. Like blithely drawing channels and guessing at FTTs without any error analysis. We are both engineers by training, so you remember all the EE lab experiments we did where they drilled error analysis into our heads. And the critiques of assumed test conditions they made us do when the experiment went wrong or counter to intuition.
Bingoking, I agree with you that one of Jack's virtues (and in truth he has more than a few) is that he encourages us to have higher profit aspirations. But I think he goes too far with the 3X daily range, as IMO reaching for that encourages unduly risky trades. In fact, that is ultimately where I am going if the thread survives.
Joe, you may well be right about the 3x thing. I am not a follower of his particular methods, I just read some of his comments from time to time. That particular one that I remember has opened up my thinking about the markets.
Advice about avoiding excessive risk is always good advice so I will be interested in how that plays out here.
I'm beat, gotta sleep.
Advice about avoiding excessive risk is always good advice so I will be interested in how that plays out here.
I'm beat, gotta sleep.
Here is a chart of the six levels of SCT trading. The columns are self-explanatory.
Level, trades per day, improved E, E*, H-L multiple, contract max for skill level.
B, 4to7, N/A, 1 plus, 1 to 10
AB, 7 to 15, none, 2 plus, 20
BI, 7 to 15, none, 2 plus, 20
I, 7 to 15, 2 ticks at each end*, 3, 30
AI, 20 nominally, 1 tick per trade**. 3 plus, 30
E, 20 to 40, 1 to 2 ticks per trade***, well over 3, 40 to mkt capacity.
Source of effectiveness and efficiency:
* At turning points, the 2 minute YM turning point test allows for an anticipated turn on ES.
** The STR/SQU alarm allows for an improvement over the YM turning point test.
*** Two almost simultaneous signals allow for carving the turns: the "wall" of the DOM and the 2 pair on the OTR tick chart which a five signal turn.
You can add two general aids to all of the above: All volume signals and all indicator signals. This includes over 20 additional signals.
Go through each sentence you have posted and you will find a corresponding answer in this post to illustrate the correct view of the comments you have made. Annother aid is the collection of annotated trading charts in the journals. Any varitions in them can be worked through using he above commentary on the six levels.
There is a lot of substantive content in this post. anyone can project an equity curve from it. Be sure to take out original capital when profits equal initial capital. From this point on all trading is with profits only.
No stops are used at any time. BeginnerS sideline@ initiation of convergence and reenter @ settlement pm BO.
Level, trades per day, improved E, E*, H-L multiple, contract max for skill level.
B, 4to7, N/A, 1 plus, 1 to 10
AB, 7 to 15, none, 2 plus, 20
BI, 7 to 15, none, 2 plus, 20
I, 7 to 15, 2 ticks at each end*, 3, 30
AI, 20 nominally, 1 tick per trade**. 3 plus, 30
E, 20 to 40, 1 to 2 ticks per trade***, well over 3, 40 to mkt capacity.
Source of effectiveness and efficiency:
* At turning points, the 2 minute YM turning point test allows for an anticipated turn on ES.
** The STR/SQU alarm allows for an improvement over the YM turning point test.
*** Two almost simultaneous signals allow for carving the turns: the "wall" of the DOM and the 2 pair on the OTR tick chart which a five signal turn.
You can add two general aids to all of the above: All volume signals and all indicator signals. This includes over 20 additional signals.
Go through each sentence you have posted and you will find a corresponding answer in this post to illustrate the correct view of the comments you have made. Annother aid is the collection of annotated trading charts in the journals. Any varitions in them can be worked through using he above commentary on the six levels.
There is a lot of substantive content in this post. anyone can project an equity curve from it. Be sure to take out original capital when profits equal initial capital. From this point on all trading is with profits only.
No stops are used at any time. BeginnerS sideline@ initiation of convergence and reenter @ settlement pm BO.
Quite simply, to put to bed that this method works... just show genuine p/l statements. I'm always open to new ideas. As a professional trader, I try to learn new things all the time because this is my livelihood - so I'd love to see some evidence in the validity of Jack's methods. I made a rather innocuous post on the Hershey thread not too long ago and it was promptly deleted within 15 mins.
Quote from Joe Doaks:
Jack, you are a great stright man, but I am not ready to talk about Error #3, "Always In". I have yet to treat of Error #2 "Uncertainty in Volume Bars", which the civil discourse here (with the exception of you) encourages me to proceed to do. My but we are touchy today. Your defensiveness makes me think to ask, with apologies to Fred Schwed, Jr., "Where are all the Hershey traders' yachts?" And I assure you that in this thread, any humor is unintentional. Your comments bring to the fore what I had intended to reserve as the punch line. That many of your adherents are insufficiently analytical, to the point of credulity, or even naivete. They do not question your basic assumptions, many of which have always bothered me. Like blithely drawing channels and guessing at FTTs without any error analysis. We are both engineers by training, so you remember all the EE lab experiments we did where they drilled error analysis into our heads. And the critiques of assumed test conditions they made us do when the experiment went wrong or counter to intuition.
People do different things with their money. I had "toys" just like every other young person trading the markets. Consort was the name of the sloop I owned in Greenwich. It was US122 registered in Gothemberg, Sweden as a "Kings Cruiser". I bought it second hand from the treasurer of Yachting Magazine. It was in flawless condition; check back issues of the magazine. I sold it to his daughter upon my return from Switzerland, so it was returned to the family. The US home port of King's Cruisers is Annapolis, MD. The design came from a competition held by the King of Sweden.
This wraps my commentary on your thread which happens to mention my name for your reasons.
You may read into my comments anything you wish. I view your comments largely as just more of the same type humor.
Gentle readers, please permit me a coda. Jack, bless his heart, always makes me think, and in this regard he is nothing if not heuristic. I should have titled this thread "Potential Errors in Coomonly Accepted Charting Assumptions." Because what I am talking about is not unique to SCT. And that would have avoided accusations of ET heresy.
As anecdotal evidence of the validity of my initial post, what got me to thinking about this was a jarring occurrence Friday in NQ. My 30 minute chart showed an FTT, but my one minute chart showed a bounce. An extreme example, but it made me think about the assumptions underlying trend line drawing and the different views people charting and trading different time frames might have. Is it a BFD for SCT, probably not. By my oh my do they start giving you their rules when you challenge the lack of them!
As anecdotal evidence of the validity of my initial post, what got me to thinking about this was a jarring occurrence Friday in NQ. My 30 minute chart showed an FTT, but my one minute chart showed a bounce. An extreme example, but it made me think about the assumptions underlying trend line drawing and the different views people charting and trading different time frames might have. Is it a BFD for SCT, probably not. By my oh my do they start giving you their rules when you challenge the lack of them!