So it comes down to who has the bigger base. I think the Dems do, so Mickey Mouse could run... and win. Newsome for sure could pull it off. But you know better than I in these matters so.... I'll just stop here and check on the futures, which I'm sure are flat.
It is complicated of course because although the dems may have the bigger base in the aggregate there is that pesky little Electoral College and you have to go state by state. The reality is that even the dems have traditionally had get out the vote strengths, party number strengths, all these damn elections nevertheless turn out to be divided by just a pubic hair's width of votes. While accepting your larger point, I am not there in regard to "even Mickey Mouse could win." Joe is more feeble but also far, far, far to the left of what he ran on last time. And the dems cannot afford to get fewer votes, or to put a California lefty in there based on the idea that anyone could win. If they do an analysis that says that their person is still stronger than Trump, well that is one thing. But it needs to be based on that rather than on a dangerous assumption that dems just have more votes on general. I think Hillary and Obama would advise that as well. Also, if they do an analysis that says that their person can still beat trump, how do you know that Trump will be the pubs candidate?
This is going to be a close election because- well- they all are no matter what you do these days. I would watch out for the Rumsfeldian scenario that I have mentioned before, knowing that many people's eyes glaze over. But you have or could have some piddling little third party that takes just ten percent and another one - say Jill Stein who takes- say- 1 percent. Okay so far. Now assume then that the vote is close in the electoral college- could happen, eh. And assume further that because some third party took a pittance of votes then neither of the major parties can get over the 50 percent required to win. What then? And don't think for a minute that is impossible just because it is not probably (or is it?).
Well under the constitution the vote then goes to the house in which case it becomes more of a matter of what the votes in the house look like rather than all those registered dem voters out there.
Also possible, is that the few third party electoral delegates get released by their party No Labels for example to vote for one of the candidates. Say for example Manchin/No Labels gets a handful and in the end the party leadership of No Labels release their electoral college voters to vote for Biden.
Just sayin, this is a complicated game shaping up. Just because some things seem laughable now doesn't mean they won't get more attention down the road. Crazy sh@t happens. The first election of "no way he will ever be elected Donald Trump" proved that.
Regardless of what the battle looks like, never go to battle with Mickey Mouse commanding. You have lots of hispanics, jews, blacks who are not there for Joe at the levels they have been in the past. The dems think they will always be there for the dems. They will, just not at the level that got him elected last time. Other than that, it's all good.
