Earnings journal

[Philo Judeaus]

Any places you’ve found that consistently give good news? Currently I go through the IB feed, search Google and will do a pass on company website atm if I’m doing the full research for a trade.

Isn't any news already priced into the market before the articles are even released? Other than pure curiousity and awareness I don't see much value in reading the news.

The signal is within the noise and the numbers speak for themselves. TheBigShort is very smart and analytically inclined and has a bunch of statistical tools at his disposal, and thats what one needs in his arsenal to trade earnings at least.

 

[Philo Judeaus]

FDX still decent enough to cover almost all my MU losses so can’t complain.

I'm a lil confused. Didn't you sell the 157.5 straddle? The short straddle was a winner correct?

 

[Philo Judeaus]

The statistics are simply a filter.
When I talked to euan Sinclair (whose has been consistent with earnings trades in size) mentioned that a fundemental view can be an edge that lasts for years as most funds systematically sell vol to extract the idiosyncratic risk premium.

I am reading his book "Volatility Trading" and its great. I'm now getting into PDE's and forumals and such like you. Its heavy but the more I look at it the more familiar.

Have you looked into jump-diffusion models to approach earnings?

 

[Philo Judeaus]

$WBA June 53/52/48 Put Butterfly $0.40 credit

 

[TheBigShort]

Numbers out on WBA. Stock jumping up on news. So far so good.

 

[TheBigShort]

Thanks, this is very helpful info. Will definitely incorporate this more heavily into trade planning. Makes sense that getting a picture of the fundamental reality will provide most of the edge since MM algos can parse stats almost as good as we can.

Any places you’ve found that consistently give good news? Currently I go through the IB feed, search Google and will do a pass on company website atm if I’m doing the full research for a trade.

I don't want to jynx you here but CAG # are out. Your short straddle is looking like a damn good trade

 

[TheBigShort]

I just went long delta in stock.
Long WBA @ 52.80

 

[TheBigShort]

If you guys have time, jump into the WBA or CAG earnings call.

 

[TheBigShort]

I just went long delta in stock.
Long WBA @ 52.80

Closed position @ 53.90 Gain of 1.10

 

[JonSnowKnows]

New to EliteTrader but been trading earnings for awhile now. Hope I can contribute somewhere. WBA short vol. seems to have worked well (chart below from marketchameleon). To date my bread and butter has been pre-earnings trades (long vol - calendars, staddles, ratios). Keep up the good work everyone.