Earnings journal

Will be interested to see this formula up and running and start comparing to the moves that occur. MU was lesser of the two but what pushed me over the edge is the thought there is more of a speculative retail bid on a stock like MU than usual.

I did choose the 33s and I think I got $2.7 in premium for the short vol. Luckily seems to have come back down a bit close to my BE. My earlier post was at its worst moment, looked like a straight line up to ~36 with no sign of tapering at that point.
 
Magic said:
Will be interested to see this formula up and running and start comparing to the moves that occur. MU was lesser of the two but what pushed me over the edge is the thought there is more of a speculative retail bid on a stock like MU than usual.

I did choose the 33s and I think I got $2.7 in premium for the short vol. Luckily seems to have come back down a bit close to my BE. My earlier post was at its worst moment, looked like a straight line up to ~36 with no sign of tapering at that point.
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Do you have any plays on for tomorrow morning? GIS,PAYX were the only one on my screen.

I hope MU works out for you. It does not usually have a large intraday move so you shouldn't be to stressed come 9.30 :p
 
Bleh, those both look decent at first pass. Screener wasn’t updating for some reason and I was on to the next thing instead of running my own calcs off the market data.

In other news good day for MSFT vol. The gap to $137 into today paid for all the short theta since you first mentioned it. Still seems earnings date is up in the air so either that getting priced in or 1-2 more days like this will make it a solid winner.
 
Magic said:
Bleh, those both look decent at first pass. Screener wasn’t updating for some reason and I was on to the next thing instead of running my own calcs off the market data.

In other news good day for MSFT vol. The gap to $137 into today paid for all the short theta since you first mentioned it. Still seems earnings date is up in the air so either that getting priced in or 1-2 more days like this will make it a solid winner.
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MSFT is so cheap right now. I am a bit wary that they have their earnings on July 17. If it gets any cheaper, I am going to put a big portion of net liq on it.

Yea screener will be back up and running fingers crossed by friday. I am using a personal one right now. Im updating the website one with some cool features. Almost done
distros.PNG
 
TheBigShort said:
That software is Bloomberg. I have created a better application which I will be posting on this journal over the weekend. For those interrested it will be 1k a year to use or $150 a month.
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Interesting. I'm hoping theres some sort of free-trial to test it out? :)
 
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Magic said:
Wooh, sold 157.5 on FDX, this is looking great. However I’m also short on MU @_@. Depending how the dust settles looks like they will be close to canceling each other out.
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Just to clarify, you sold the 157.5 straddle? Also in which exp? June weeklies? Thanks.
 
TheBigShort said:
Of course. I'll post a link to a youtube video with documentation when it's done.

I am also going to be giving the ET community a free (forever) earnings calendar app that lays out implied moves and some other minor details.
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Thank you! Appreciate all that you contribute, I'll be joining in on this journal from now on as well.
 
TheBigShort said:
Let's say I looked at the past 50 earnings jumps of TIF and the kurtosis of the returns was 6 and the vol surface for the closest expiration to earnings was flat. Even if implied vol in my opinion was rich, would it make buying the wings reasonable?
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I'm studying your posts so don't mind me bringing up old ones. This post peaked my interest.

You said "the kurtosis of the returns was 6". Although my understanding of kurtosis is pretty much null I wanted to ask how do you measure it?

What does "6" kurtosis mean?

How do you incorporate this measure into your earnings plays?

Cheers!
 
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