Out @ 1.65. Nice winner.
I like the layout market chameleon has. Have you been a long term subscriber with them?
Earnings journal
- Thread starter TheBigShort
- Start date
The 15 min wait to close hasn't been helping me out these past few trades. Opened net winner but then sailed past my BE. The series is monthly so I might even hold 1-2 days at max to avoid buying back on extended price and elevated vol. Or in best case comes back a bit through the afternoon.
Edit - Gave me a little back and I took it. Got back to single digit % on risk loss at least.
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Just been with them a few months. They do have a lot of nice historical option data and filters/screens setup for earnings related trades which I find helpful. However, like any tool, it can be dangerous if not used logically and thoughtfully. For example, they are showing shorting puts in NKE day before earnings has a high win rate (image below) but this is likely not a good trade to do naked even though it may have worked in the past.
I looked at NKE briefly. Wasn't motivated to touch it. I think the companies with high liquidity have thinner spreads of implied v. earnings in general. Also concur that one should be wary of the prevalent win % statistics regarding options. Next to useless metric imo; magnitude of the wins and losses is far more important.
Agree about win %.
Has anyone used Estimize or looked at the trend of analyst revisions heading into earnings for predictive power? I remember reading a few papers awhile ago where upward/downward revisions seemed to have some predictive power but perhaps that was a good idea a few years ago but no longer relevant today.... http://com.estimize.public.s3.amazonaws.com/papers/Estimize Whitepaper Executive Summary.pdf
Has anyone used Estimize or looked at the trend of analyst revisions heading into earnings for predictive power? I remember reading a few papers awhile ago where upward/downward revisions seemed to have some predictive power but perhaps that was a good idea a few years ago but no longer relevant today.... http://com.estimize.public.s3.amazonaws.com/papers/Estimize Whitepaper Executive Summary.pdf
I am short NKE shares @ 82.45
Edit* added to position at 83.25
Avg cost $82.80
Edit* added to position at 83.25
Avg cost $82.80
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Out @ 83.85
Loss of 1.05
Interesting shot at NKE, sorry it didn’t work out for you.
Interested to see what STZ does at open. If I had more time this afternoon I would’ve looked to see if a long there was viable, looks like it’s hasn’t sustained much premium over the actual historically and market hasn’t really adjusted much.
Interested to see what STZ does at open. If I had more time this afternoon I would’ve looked to see if a long there was viable, looks like it’s hasn’t sustained much premium over the actual historically and market hasn’t really adjusted much.
Welcome to the thread! I like that attachment, it looks clean. Is that $WBA?
Do you only do long vol pre-earnings trades? Do you ever short vol going into the event?
What do you mean by this?