company changes over time, so does its stock. I think US econ would change , possibly, when America becomes an 500 years old maid (at the point when she lost her life juice, and f@rted toxic gas like an old pickup truck).
Do Markets Change?
- Thread starter Palindrome
- Start date
Thanks for all of the feedback everyone to my original question. I did not think that many people would contribute.
I'm convinced it really does not change.
I've come to this conclusion because I trade the same in Natural Gas, as I trade in NQ's as I trade in currencies as I trade in Fixed income. All of this crap does the same thing over and over and over again.
All markets go from one "shake out" to the next.
They are kind of like my 1 year old daughter... she wonders around to the spot in the house that causes the most annoyance, she then wonders to the next spot in the house to do the same thing. I find that markets do the same thing over and over and over again.
Just like a market, it goes to the price level that will cause the most churn, that is what it is attracted too. Or at least this is the lens that I look through to predict where the market is about to go.
(she is really not an annoyance, just an analogy)
I'm convinced it really does not change.
I've come to this conclusion because I trade the same in Natural Gas, as I trade in NQ's as I trade in currencies as I trade in Fixed income. All of this crap does the same thing over and over and over again.
All markets go from one "shake out" to the next.
They are kind of like my 1 year old daughter... she wonders around to the spot in the house that causes the most annoyance, she then wonders to the next spot in the house to do the same thing. I find that markets do the same thing over and over and over again.
Just like a market, it goes to the price level that will cause the most churn, that is what it is attracted too. Or at least this is the lens that I look through to predict where the market is about to go.
(she is really not an annoyance, just an analogy)
The question is somewhat vague (no clear definition of what "change" is, or what "moving the same way" means); so my reply must also be vague.
Someone said,
“[Market] History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”
Ordinarily I'd automatically hit the like button on a post like this for being so philosophically deep... but this one must be deeper than deep because I'm not hearing the tune.
But I owe ya one anyway on one thing you wrote that is so very true...
"Chops are chops.... and tone is tone". -speedo
........gold
But can you show what you're talking about on a chart, from a year when the market behaves a certain standard way, to another when it doesn't?
Markets are based on human emotions.
They’ve changed as much as human emotions have changed throughout millennia.
This thread reminds me of "weather" versus "climate."
If you are not responsive to the changes in market weather, you're going to die -- plain and simple. If you don't have multiple tools, tactics, and flexible expectations, you're going to die. If you don't keep an eye on where you're at -- telescoping out to where you've been (1 week! month! YTD and YEAR! 5yrs! 10 and 20 and more...!) -- you're a phool and you're going to blow it.
Match your positions to your weather, and know today's weather versus your climate.
Always always always.
If you are not responsive to the changes in market weather, you're going to die -- plain and simple. If you don't have multiple tools, tactics, and flexible expectations, you're going to die. If you don't keep an eye on where you're at -- telescoping out to where you've been (1 week! month! YTD and YEAR! 5yrs! 10 and 20 and more...!) -- you're a phool and you're going to blow it.
Match your positions to your weather, and know today's weather versus your climate.
Always always always.
In many ways this is correct, in some it is not. For option traders and momentum traders there is an empirically repeating pattern one-week before earnings -- it's a bullish momentum pattern that even worked from 2007-2008.
My firm has a video you can watch on it -- just check out the first 2 minute, if it doesn't answer your question, the rest will no be worth your time.
