direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

Quote from nukethewhales31:

in the chart u post where is the clearly defined entrance exits and profits for the zig zag... its just a line that follows price movement
since price moves in zig zags to begin with do we really need that indicator? but if we measure the waves and determine the areas where price tends to turn we have something of use. if we determine that price tends to go down under a trend line this bias... and price is under this trend line like in ur picture... we look for a short... we of course should include the line in our chart... we know maybe due to stats that price majorly turns at 50% of the previous wave distance... then we look for confluence ... if 50% movement up retracement resides at the trendline... then we have precision in our trade.
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We may not need the plot, but the gauge tells us how many bars between the zig and the zag... this gives us a clue.

This alone does NOT give us an entry.

Once again, we are heading in the same direction.

If you know the average range, then you know when price is about to run out of gas and possibly retrace.

Also, you know if price moves X then it is most likely to move Y. That gives you the entry.

If you have a statistical edge, then over time you win, just like the casino... but I know you already know that.
 
NTW:

For the record, I am agreeing with you, not debating you. I am interested in your work. Perhaps, I'll learn a new trick or 2.

Have you studied jjrvat's thread?

P.S. Is this what you mean by link? Cause if it is, I HATE THAT. I want to see the chart and the text at the same time. To me, it's a pain in the (_*_) to have to click back and forth. And I like LARGE CHARTS. They are easier on my eyes. But since this is your thread, when in ROME...
 

Attachments

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

We may not need the plot, but the gauge tells us how many bars between the zig and the zag... this gives us a clue.

This alone does NOT give us an entry.

Once again, we are heading in the same direction.

If you know the average range, then you know when price is about to run out of gas and possibly retrace.

Also, you know if price moves X then it is most likely to move Y. That gives you the entry.

If you have a statistical edge, then over time you win, just like the casino... but I know you already know that.
More...

this is true and something to be addressed large bars that run into these areas have a higher chance of break as does a narrowing base distance between either peaks or valleys in movement. as consecutive bars form on an attempt to reach the area of reversal shinking bars does statistically show less likely hood of breaking and a higher likely hood of resumption of trend at the area. with price movement yes that is exactly it if i know it will move x it is likely to move y but we need to take into account how the price is acting at the time.. this is why i use a %age it normalizes the movement where theyre may be excessive volatility and so the system adjusts widens distances and lowers positioning creating harmony in the system.
Working wth the ebb and flow of the market.

the statistical edge including precise entrance and stops and profit targets non curve fitted data and forward walked will turn u into the house.. the market comes to u to play u offer it the probabilities
 
Quote from TheRumpledOne:

NTW:

For the record, I am agreeing with you, not debating you. I am interested in your work. Perhaps, I'll learn a new trick or 2.

Have you studied jjrvat's thread?

P.S. Is this what you mean by link? Cause if it is, I HATE THAT. I want to see the chart and the text at the same time. To me, it's a pain in the (_*_) to have to click back and forth. And I like LARGE CHARTS. They are easier on my eyes. But since this is your thread, when in ROME...
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thank you, i understand ur not arguing and i am happy i actually get to the end as i have seeming stopped due to lack of interest.. so im happy i get to discuss more about it..
i actually havent read it can u post a link
 
Quote from nukethewhales31:

this is true and something to be addressed large bars that run into these areas have a higher chance of break as does a narrowing base distance between either peaks or valleys in movement. as consecutive bars form on an attempt to reach the area of reversal shinking bars does statistically show less likely hood of breaking and a higher likely hood of resumption of trend at the area. with price movement yes that is exactly it if i know it will move x it is likely to move y but we need to take into account how the price is acting at the time.. this is why i use a %age it normalizes the movement where theyre may be excessive volatility and so the system adjusts widens distances and lowers positioning creating harmony in the system.
Working wth the ebb and flow of the market.

the statistical edge including precise entrance and stops and profit targets non curve fitted data and forward walked will turn u into the house.. the market comes to u to play u offer it the probabilities
More...

When you say %age, I am not 100% sure (pun intended) that we are talking about the same thing.

Would you please provide a formula?

Thanks in advance.
 
debej8.gif


Is this size OK?

I am trying to learn/understand your use of the ema(20).
 
Quote from stevegee58:

I had a chance to go through nuke's writings and graphics and make better sense of them. I've pasted an improved data table with commas that can be imported into Excel. I've also attached an Excel file that corresponds to this data. It contains the SLD and LSD calculations with some notes.

bar,short,long
21,.5,36
20,3.3,64
19,5.6,25
18,8.3,36
17,.4,54
16,3.1,22
15,3.1,33
14,1.6,20
13,,83
13,,14.5
12,.1,56.5
11,4.3,39.2
10,,90
10,,28.6
9,2,70
8,7,69
7,0,66
6,10,54
5,,30
5,,28.6
4,,67
4,,14
3,.4,51
2,,59
2,,30.4
1,1.3,74

The original posting with the data table contained an hourly chart that corresponded to the data. I've annotated it with bar numbers to clarify it and attached it as well.

14jnih3.jpg
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3450ci8.gif


I show frequency distribution for HIGH - OPEN and OPEN - LOW. Is this the same as your LONG and SHORT counts?

Trying to understand.
 
Quote from nukethewhales31:

youve never heard of these terms as they are made up....

take a candle lets say it has parameters:
Open: 100
High: 110
Low:80

the shortest distance is High-Open
the longest distance is Open-Low

LSD is the longest distance of all the shortest distances
SLD is the shortest of all the longest distances.

hope that answers it.
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Very clear.. I can write an indicator to do that.

But, I call High - Open "HiOp" and Open - Low "LoOp".

LSD would be the Maximum of HiOp or MaxHiOp.

SLD would be the Minimum of OpLo or MinOpLo.

I assume we don't use 0 values.

Now, I just have to understand the significance.
 
Quote from nukethewhales31:

this is correct

yes thats it but know that to get the lsd or sld some short side will be rather long if its > than the sld then you move it to the sld side
then eliminate the lsd top extremities uses 80% data or 90% data so your taking the highest 10 or 20 % off to get lsd.

good im glad you like it... im glad im bringing people to the forum its a good one i think.
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Uh oh.. maybe I don't understand.

Current bar open is Open[0]

Previous bar high is High[1]

Previous bar low is Low[1]

So is it High[1] - Open[0] and Open[0] - Low[1]??
 
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